2056.08: (A Little Past) Midseason Review
Posted: Thu Oct 05, 2023 1:07 pm
7/29/2056
CATCHING
Joe Zwicker catches against RHP and has produced 1.4 WAR. His ratings flipped since he arrived in San Fernando as he is now less patient at the plate but found more pop. Midseason waiver claim Will Bennett does the catching against LHP and has performed below replacement-level. I'd say he's the guy most likely to depart our roster in the short term.
INFIELD
The richest contract I handed out over the offseason went to 1B Francisco Martínez, whose play has been fine while leading the team in PAs and producing 1.4 WAR. After a hot start his power output has disappeared so I've moved him into the leadoff role. The other 1B on the roster is Naoaki Kurioka. He platoons at DH and hasn't set the world on fire but I'll give him until the end of the year to prove he should stay in the BBA.
Steady Eddie 2B Marcello Custello has witnessed a dip in BA but an increase in power. It shakes out to look like he's on pace for another ~2 WAR season.
The one-year contract given to Pepe Espinosa was recently converted into a few prospects from Rocky Mountain via a trade. Espinosa produced 1.7 WAR playing shortstop for us and filled a really challenging position. But he's 35 years old and we're not making the playoffs so now that responsibility falls to Kevin Corbett. Corbett isn't sexy but he hits for average and is a defensive upgrade. He'll once again look to prove he should be the everyday SS heading into 2057.
The hot corner is an amalgamation of RH Murray Healey and LH Ron Ritchie. They're meh and both head to free agency soon.
OUTFIELD
Don Moore is following up a good 2055 with an excellent 2056, slashing .279/.343/.565 as our DH against RHP.
Under appreciated Hyeon-uk Hong has the second most PAs on the team with 428 and has been solid in most every aspect of the game while producing 1.9 WAR. My splashy offseason acquisition on the other hand, Jamie Angwin, is at least above replacement-level now after a recent hot streak but is still only hitting .231/.319/.371 while playing CF everyday.
Jim Young got demoted to AAA after hitting .197/.267/.350 and has since lumped. He's been firmly replaced in the corner outfield by two rookies performing at a high level, Michael Schultz and Tommy Harrison. Schultz looks like a legitimate superstar and I'm cautiously optimistic Harrison is an underrated gem with a more well-rounded profile than Young ever had.
Only Hong is an above-average defender.
STARTING ROTATION
My preferred pitching metric is xFIP, which removes factors beyond a pitcher's control while putting a lot of emphasis on groundball rates. San Fernando's overall pitching staff has an xFIP of 4.45, putting them a little behind the league average of 4.38. Breaking it down further, our starting staff has an xFIP of 4.54 and our bullpen has an xFIP of 4.32. I haven't found an easy way to calculate these league average splits, but I imagine it would look similar with relievers a touch more effective than starters.
Therefore, it would follow that my starting rotation ain't too shabby. Unfortunately, due to a combination of defense (see above, especially the outfield) and ??? mean most of my starters have ERAs at least a run higher than their xFIP. The lone exception is Alexander Swanson, who is eating innings thanks in part to his 3.82 ERA and ability to throw strikes.
Fernando Ferretti actually has the best xFIP in the rotation of 4.46 (.01 lower than Swanson) but sports a 6.06 ERA. Ferretti is similar to Swanson in that he's not overpowering but he throws a ton of strikes. I'd blame his .341 BABIP on his meager fastball but his BABIP was .294 last season over 171 innings.
The two rotation stalwarts are supposed to be expensive veterans Dan Small and Shea Valance. Small's career has been derailed by injuries but he's stayed healthy in 2056 and his 4.54 xFIP indicates he's still an effective starter. Valance has a 4.94 ERA and 4.70 xFIP but his 25 home runs surrendered in 93 innings makes me think he's no longer a reliable 3rd/4th starter and I shouldn't pencil him into the 2057 rotation.
Jorge Quiñones is the fifth starter and his ERA of 6.37 matches that profile. Jorge's control is spotty but his xFIP is 4.58 because he has the rotation's best strikeout rate and he induces groundballs. The other pitcher I've tried in the rotation, prospect Candrata Parmar, was sent to AAA to show consistency but will make more starts for the Bears by the end of the season.
BULLPEN
As I showed above with their xFIP, the bullpen is mediocre if not serviceable. As a GM, I haven't invested in lockdown relievers because I think that's the last thing a contending team should add if they can't develop it themselves (and I haven't). So instead I go dumpster diving and it shows, with every reliever currently on the roster carrying an xFIP between 3.53 and 5.18. The players on each end of that range have thrown 26.1 and 8.2 innings respectively, so mostly the bullpen performs somewhere between 4.00 and 5.00.
If I had to pick two standouts they would be Michel Gautier and Adam Barber. Gautier has walks under control for the first time in his career and the lefty has performed at a 3.70 xFIP. Barber's been less effective but has already covered 71.1 innings for me.
CATCHING
Joe Zwicker catches against RHP and has produced 1.4 WAR. His ratings flipped since he arrived in San Fernando as he is now less patient at the plate but found more pop. Midseason waiver claim Will Bennett does the catching against LHP and has performed below replacement-level. I'd say he's the guy most likely to depart our roster in the short term.
INFIELD
The richest contract I handed out over the offseason went to 1B Francisco Martínez, whose play has been fine while leading the team in PAs and producing 1.4 WAR. After a hot start his power output has disappeared so I've moved him into the leadoff role. The other 1B on the roster is Naoaki Kurioka. He platoons at DH and hasn't set the world on fire but I'll give him until the end of the year to prove he should stay in the BBA.
Steady Eddie 2B Marcello Custello has witnessed a dip in BA but an increase in power. It shakes out to look like he's on pace for another ~2 WAR season.
The one-year contract given to Pepe Espinosa was recently converted into a few prospects from Rocky Mountain via a trade. Espinosa produced 1.7 WAR playing shortstop for us and filled a really challenging position. But he's 35 years old and we're not making the playoffs so now that responsibility falls to Kevin Corbett. Corbett isn't sexy but he hits for average and is a defensive upgrade. He'll once again look to prove he should be the everyday SS heading into 2057.
The hot corner is an amalgamation of RH Murray Healey and LH Ron Ritchie. They're meh and both head to free agency soon.
OUTFIELD
Don Moore is following up a good 2055 with an excellent 2056, slashing .279/.343/.565 as our DH against RHP.
Under appreciated Hyeon-uk Hong has the second most PAs on the team with 428 and has been solid in most every aspect of the game while producing 1.9 WAR. My splashy offseason acquisition on the other hand, Jamie Angwin, is at least above replacement-level now after a recent hot streak but is still only hitting .231/.319/.371 while playing CF everyday.
Jim Young got demoted to AAA after hitting .197/.267/.350 and has since lumped. He's been firmly replaced in the corner outfield by two rookies performing at a high level, Michael Schultz and Tommy Harrison. Schultz looks like a legitimate superstar and I'm cautiously optimistic Harrison is an underrated gem with a more well-rounded profile than Young ever had.
Only Hong is an above-average defender.
STARTING ROTATION
My preferred pitching metric is xFIP, which removes factors beyond a pitcher's control while putting a lot of emphasis on groundball rates. San Fernando's overall pitching staff has an xFIP of 4.45, putting them a little behind the league average of 4.38. Breaking it down further, our starting staff has an xFIP of 4.54 and our bullpen has an xFIP of 4.32. I haven't found an easy way to calculate these league average splits, but I imagine it would look similar with relievers a touch more effective than starters.
Therefore, it would follow that my starting rotation ain't too shabby. Unfortunately, due to a combination of defense (see above, especially the outfield) and ??? mean most of my starters have ERAs at least a run higher than their xFIP. The lone exception is Alexander Swanson, who is eating innings thanks in part to his 3.82 ERA and ability to throw strikes.
Fernando Ferretti actually has the best xFIP in the rotation of 4.46 (.01 lower than Swanson) but sports a 6.06 ERA. Ferretti is similar to Swanson in that he's not overpowering but he throws a ton of strikes. I'd blame his .341 BABIP on his meager fastball but his BABIP was .294 last season over 171 innings.
The two rotation stalwarts are supposed to be expensive veterans Dan Small and Shea Valance. Small's career has been derailed by injuries but he's stayed healthy in 2056 and his 4.54 xFIP indicates he's still an effective starter. Valance has a 4.94 ERA and 4.70 xFIP but his 25 home runs surrendered in 93 innings makes me think he's no longer a reliable 3rd/4th starter and I shouldn't pencil him into the 2057 rotation.
Jorge Quiñones is the fifth starter and his ERA of 6.37 matches that profile. Jorge's control is spotty but his xFIP is 4.58 because he has the rotation's best strikeout rate and he induces groundballs. The other pitcher I've tried in the rotation, prospect Candrata Parmar, was sent to AAA to show consistency but will make more starts for the Bears by the end of the season.
BULLPEN
As I showed above with their xFIP, the bullpen is mediocre if not serviceable. As a GM, I haven't invested in lockdown relievers because I think that's the last thing a contending team should add if they can't develop it themselves (and I haven't). So instead I go dumpster diving and it shows, with every reliever currently on the roster carrying an xFIP between 3.53 and 5.18. The players on each end of that range have thrown 26.1 and 8.2 innings respectively, so mostly the bullpen performs somewhere between 4.00 and 5.00.
If I had to pick two standouts they would be Michel Gautier and Adam Barber. Gautier has walks under control for the first time in his career and the lefty has performed at a 3.70 xFIP. Barber's been less effective but has already covered 71.1 innings for me.