Assessment and Outlook – Pitching Rotation
A Look Back and a Glance Ahead
by Caitlen Sullivan
Vancouver Sun Sports Reporter
October 5, 2035
Today we continue our year end roster assessment and brief look ahead
Yup, Northwoods Outpost is a pitcher’s park, so keep that in mind as we review the staff. Pitcher’s park or no, the Vancouver pitchers ranked fifth overall in ERA in the league (4.16) – the starter’s ERA was fifth (4.42) while the bullpen ERA (3.38) was a nifty 2nd. They did it often pitching under duress – 5th in runs allowed but 11th in hits allowed. The staff struck out 1,016 (11th) and walked 419 (3rd).
We look at the incumbents and new candidates in the order of their probable spot in the rotation next season.
- No question that Juan Guerrero will be number one next year. A rookie in 2035, Guerrero went 19-8 with a fine ERA of 3.19. He had the best team pitching WAR at 5.0. He’s wasn’t a strikeout guy – he had just 121 in 239 innings, but he walked only 49. At age 23 he’s still improving and coaches think his K/9 ratio will only go up. He has very good stamina and holds runners close to the bag. 75% of his starts were labeled quality starts.
- José Zamora was number three or four this past year, but coaches feel the 21-year-old will improve enough over the winter to move up to number two in 2036. He finished at 11-11 with an ERA of 4.65. His control is good, and he posted a WAR of 3.0. Like Guerrero, he too was a rookie in 2035 and moved into the rotation after seven relief appearances early in the year.
- Manuel Solíz was top dog starting 2035 but is expected to be number three next season. It’s not like he regressed – it’s just Guerrero and Zamora are getting better fast. Soliz was second on the staff in WAR (4.1) with a record of 14-12 and an ERA of 3.88. If Guerrero and Zamora are truly #1 and #2 in caliber, Soliz gives the Mounties a strong number three guy in the rotation.
- José Morales was probably considered the number two guy in Spring Training. He didn’t get off to a particularly good start, and the Mounties chose to have him spend significant time in the bullpen – some say it was to prevent the financially-strapped team from having to pay him a $1.0 million bonus for 150 innings pitched. With the financial worries greatly dissipated, expect Morales to be in the more comfortable position of the number four guy in 2036. He is considered the unofficial team captain, and his morale as the season ends is excellent.
- The number five spot is probably wide open but the team is penciling in Alejandro Ramírez as the guy. He’s just 20 years old, and he held down a rotation job for the second half of the season after being promoted from Victoria. He struggled at times, but if he can improve his changeup over the off season, he should do well at the bottom of the rotation.
- Dermot Halford was occasionally brilliant but often struggled. He is only 21 and could improve enough to be a factor.
- Alexandre Doyle had a few good outings, but he was much better as a reliever than as a starter.
- Troy Downey – forget about him as a starter. He (and the fans) have to get used to the idea that his job will be in the bullpen.
- Kuang-Yin Qiad had a sneaky good year at Victoria (14-9, 4.19) and is now, at 24, one of the older players pitching down in the Florida Prospect League where he has allowed only a single run in his first three starts (totaling 25 innings).
- José Arellano is not yet 19 and is probably the brightest prospect in the Vancouver system. He’ll start next season in AA and probably move up to AAA during the season. He’ll be no help to the parent club in 2036 unless it’s as part of a trade.
- José Bonilla was the 2035 number one draft pick. He’s 17. Too soon to even think about him.
