9.08.2051 – Unincorporated Los Angeles County
Grant puts down his chicken salad sandwich. “I don't know why it's happening, I just know that it is. Are the seems in the balls tighter? Are the hitters juiced? Are the injuries taking that much of a toll? I don't know, but the numbers are what they are. Association average ERA is 4.57. That's a jump of sixty points over last season. Sixty points!”
He and Marwa are eating in the cafeteria. The team is getting ready to take on the Bears to wrap up a short series that night, followed by one of the BBA's famous off days on Saturday. The Stars won 15-1 the night before, so the mood is pretty good around the office.
“That sort of jump is unusual?” asks Marwa.
“You get some weird bumps now and again. Ten years ago you had a rise of about forty points. But a sixty point shift? No, you just don't see it.”
Marwa picks at her salad. “So does that mean that our pitching rotation isn't the total bummer it seems to be?” she asks.
Grant considers this for a moment. “Well, if you just look at ERA, it's actually been better than average in the association, but still tenth in the Frick. For a team with what should have been their second, third, and fourth starters all on the IL, not that bad.”
“And if you look beyond ERA?” she asks.
“It doesn't hold up,” says Grant, shaking his head. “They're bad, but that possibly fluky .269 BABIP is really helping them out.”
“And what about the number one starter whom the team just extended?” asks Marwa.
“Hard to get excited about a 4.04 ERA, but we have to remember that 4.57 is league average right now. Historically, league average ERA in the BBA is closer to 4.28, though we got used to ERAs in the threes in the Frick the last few seasons, so we really have to adjust our thinking around pitcher performance this year. Arroyo is about the same relative to everybody else as he was before.”
Grant takes up his tablet. “Let's see, looking at qualified pitchers, he's eighth in the association in xFIP, which is fourth best in the Frick. Fourth lowest walk rate. Fifth highest ground ball rate. Sixty-fourth in strikeout rate, though, which has really fallen off since '49, but that 8.7 k-rate from '49 would be second best in the association this year. Strikeouts across the board have fallen, though not quite as fast as his have. What's really hurting his performance is the sixth highest home run to fly ball percentage. His past couple of seasons have been not so great in that regard, though it's reasonable to hope he can still turn that around given the usual year-on-year variability there.”
“So, worth giving an extension?” asks Marwa.
“Yeah, I think so,” says Grant with a chuckle. “Given the generally strong correlation between xFIP and future performance.” He then frowns and taps his tablet for a bit. “For some reason we don't currently have access to any data from 2037 to 2050, but in 2036 the k-rate was 18.5% league-wide with a comparable ERA of 4.45. Now we have a league-wide k-rate of 16.8% with an ERA of 4.57. Pitching just kinda stinks right now.”
The Third Floor | Ken's Alright (51.11)
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The Third Floor | Ken's Alright (51.11)
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