Starscreams: A Valencia Stars Baseball Blog
Schedule Matters
8/18/2051
Brianna Robles, Starscreams contributor
The Stars play 26 of their last 31 games at home, where they have won at a .576 clip this season. Of those final 31 games, 15 are against teams with losing records, including all five of the road games. One might conclude that this sets Valencia up for success in the stretch run, but a look at recent trends suggests that the Stars might actually be in quite a bit of trouble.
Where the Stars have played in 2051 has not mattered as much as whom the Stars have played. The club's home/road split has not been that dramatic to this point in the season. They are 30-22 (.576) at home and 39-31 (.557) on the road. Against teams with a winning record, the Stars are 19-33 (.365). Against teams with a losing record, the Stars are 50-20 (.714). So far no real surprise, the Stars are more likely to beat teams that tend to lose, and more likely to lose to teams that tend to win.
Valencia has had no home field advantage against quality competition, but just the opposite. Looking at games against teams playing above .500 ball, the Stars are a fairly punchy 15-19 on the road, but a gut wrenching 4-14 at home. Pretty good news for teams trailing the Stars in the wildcard standings (Des Moines, Sacramento, and Vancouver), who don't necessarily need Valencia to stumble, but it would sure help.
The Stars have gotten where they are by taking care of business against lesser competition. Against teams with losing records, Valencia has gone 26-8 at home and 24-12 on the road. A split that makes more intuitive sense. They'll need to continue beating up on these teams to give themselves a chance at postseason play.
With nearly half (19) of their remaining 40 games to be played at home against quality clubs, the Stars are going to have to reverse the trend of lying down against good teams at Dunn Field. If they don't, expect them to scuffle their way to an 87-75 record and miss out on the postseason. There simply are not enough “easy games” on the schedule to give the Stars room for much error. If they can play those winning teams more like they have done on the road so far this year, then 91 wins is a reasonable expectation. Not a guaranteed playoff berth, but a respectable number of wins.
If Valencia is to earn the right to compete against the league's best in October, they'll have to be competitive against those teams in September.
Starscreams | Schedule Matters (51.09)
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Starscreams | Schedule Matters (51.09)
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Re: Starscreams | Schedule Matters (51.09)
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Re: Starscreams | Schedule Matters (51.09)
Portland's schedule is the exact opposite. We finish the season on a 13 game road trip! This thing is far from over.
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