56.010 – Felix Vidaca: Your 2056 Nebraska Winner

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56.010 – Felix Vidaca: Your 2056 Nebraska Winner

Post by RonCo » Fri Oct 20, 2023 11:42 am

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Team Votes Vidaca Most Valuable Pitcher

September 14, 2056

Sacramento pitcher Felix Vidaca threw two scoreless innings tonight against the Hawaii Tropics, entering the game in the ninth inning with the score tied, and holding the Tropics to only a single, unproductive hit. In doing so secured his 8th victory of the season.

“Par for the course,” said starter Roberto Vazquez after the game. “That’s just Felix. He’s the best pitcher in the game right now.”

That’s a truth every Mad Popes in the clubhouse agreed with, picking up the chant “Ne-bras-ka! Ne-bras-ka!” for several minutes. It’s a chant a lot of teams are going to have to get used to as they come to the Basilica for the rest of the season, as fans have been chanting it for some time now.

“It’s been awhile since a bullpen arm has won it, but I think now’s the time,” agreed pitching coach Gilberto Campos.

The case is an interesting one, because Vidaca, who came over last year after a trade with Atlantic City and was immediately dropped into the stopper’s role, unlike other candidates, does not lead any one statistical category. Instead, he’s second in the league in ERA (2.54), and second also in FIP (3.09). He’s only #8 in K/9 (7.9). His .249 BABIP is good, but nowhere near Des Moines candidate Tommy Akers, who has dropped an eye-popping .228.

He does lead the league in average against (.204), but is only fifth in WHIP (1.07).

He’s third in holds.

In other words, Felix Vidaca isn’t being used in ways that will lead to blazing numbers, and there are a few candidates who will pass the eyeball test pretty well, probably the best being the aforementioned Akers, who sits at 18-7, 2.38 and has thrown 204 innings. Others in the mix are Vancouver’s Phil Cole (17-10, 3.04, 249 IP), and Nashville’s Billy Kelly (18-4, 2.90, in 183 IP). You could add in guys like Vidaca’s Sacramento teammate Robert Hanson (18-5, 2.73) and dark horse Brody Picot from Yellow Springs (8-9, 2.62), but one guesses the Akers/Cole/Kelly axis of evil are the dominant candidates.

“No disrespect to any of them, but Felix is more valuable,” Vazquez said, shaking his head. “You watch him going out there every day with the game on the line and performing like that and you have to just boggle. The whole thing is really wearing on a guy, but Felix … man … he’s good.”

The numbers bear Vazquez out.

Vidaca has thrown 149 innings to date, and with two weeks left in the season he projects to something over 160 IP. His 8-6 record comes with 12 saves. But mostly it comes with two very important numbers, which we’ll present in tabular form:

PicherFIP-
Felix Vidaca72
Billy Kelly74
Robert Hanson77
Brody Picot85
Tommy Akers88
Phil Cole91

In other words, removing the impact of fielding, and adjusting for ballparks, Felix Vidaca is the best pitcher in the Frick League. Kelly is second, followed closely by Hanson. Then there’s a gap.

Still, there’s the issue of innings pitched. Kelly, at 183, has about 35 more IP than Vidaca, and you can say that’s worth something. I mean, it is, right? Of course. But then let’s look at the value of those innings. As a starter, when his team gets him a big lead, Kelly can sometimes coast. When Vidaca pitches, you can pretty much guarantee it’s a big moment. It’s baseball, and sometimes he loses (not his 6 losses), but his margin for error is never wide. Here’s the proof:

Pitcher Leverage Index.

PitcherpLi
Felix Vidaca1.26
Brody Picot1.06
Phil Cole1
Robert Hanson1
Tommy Akers0.96
Billy Kelly0.95

Bottom line, as a stopper, Vidaca is always in tight spots. His margin for error slim, hence the value when he succeeds is huge. Nashville scores a lot of runs. So many that Kelly pitches in below average Leverage. As does Akers. With Yellow Springs, Picot is often on a hairline margin, but to be humbly honest, Yellow Springs isn’t in the hunt (and Picot’s FIP- really rules him out anyway).

Add in the fact that this season has seen one of the major elements of the rotation out on the IL for essentially the entire year, and you get the idea of what those innings meant.

So, yes.

We’ll see where the vote goes. But Sacramento fans and teammates know that Felix Vidaca is the Nebraska Winner in the Frick league.
Player NameAgeBTOVRPOTStuStu PMovMov PConCon P
Felix Vidaca300R505012129988
SourceHtWtBABIP - PHR-PVeloStaHoldGB/FB#Pitches#Pit-6+
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Re: 56.010 – Felix Vidaca: Your 2056 Nebraska Winner

Post by Dington » Fri Oct 20, 2023 11:45 am

Cute
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Re: 56.010 – Felix Vidaca: Your 2056 Nebraska Winner

Post by RonCo » Fri Oct 20, 2023 12:09 pm

Yep...always good to see hard data proves the point! :)
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Re: 56.010 – Felix Vidaca: Your 2056 Nebraska Winner

Post by ae37jr » Fri Oct 20, 2023 12:14 pm

1.67 era at home, 3.56 on the road.
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Re: 56.010 – Felix Vidaca: Your 2056 Nebraska Winner

Post by trmmilwwi » Fri Oct 20, 2023 12:27 pm

Nice writeup, I like how you stated Nashville's offense is too good so Kelly shouldn't get the award. ;) Reminds me of my statistics class. Spin it!
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Re: 56.010 – Felix Vidaca: Your 2056 Nebraska Winner

Post by RonCo » Fri Oct 20, 2023 12:51 pm

trmmilwwi wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2023 12:27 pm
Nice writeup, I like how you stated Nashville's offense is too good so Kelly shouldn't get the award. ;) Reminds me of my statistics class. Spin it!
Well...Vidaca's base stats are better than Kelly's, but it's fair to ask if Kelly's 30 extra IP makes him more valuable. I think the context he pitches in counts for that. So ... it's not spin. It's asking what you value. If you ask me do I want Vidaca or Kelly, without trying to snub Kelly, I'll take Vidaca's season unless I just don't have decent starters at all.

When I traded for Vidaca, he was a starting pitcher, but I thought he was likely our best pitcher and I wanted him pitching when it matters. :)

Heck, I argued for him gently last year when Flores was the best option. Because Vidaca had only been a stopper for half the year. Otherwise, Vidaca may have been a better candidate than Flores.
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Re: 56.010 – Felix Vidaca: Your 2056 Nebraska Winner

Post by RonCo » Fri Oct 20, 2023 12:53 pm

ae37jr wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2023 12:14 pm
1.67 era at home, 3.56 on the road.
Kelly, Akers, and Cole have similar splits, though Vidaca's are a touch bigger.
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Re: 56.010 – Felix Vidaca: Your 2056 Nebraska Winner

Post by RonCo » Fri Oct 20, 2023 12:57 pm

Here's my limited push for Vidaca last year: http://montybrewster.net/forums/viewtop ... 45&t=45889

And my irked view of the reliever voting: http://montybrewster.net/forums/viewtop ... 45&t=46030

Call it spin, but my honest and full belief is Vidaca is the most valuable pitcher of the year in the Frick League, at least.
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Re: 56.010 – Felix Vidaca: Your 2056 Nebraska Winner

Post by RonCo » Fri Oct 20, 2023 1:14 pm

If I want to spin a little, I would argue Hanson over Akers, Kelly, or Cole. Looking at it closely, Cole is probably third to the other two...so I'll focus on them. I would take Kelly or Akers as a pitcher over Hanson, but depending on how the next couple weeks go, Hanson's season is arguably better than those three. Hanson won't win, though, because he's not really viewed as an ace.

But Vidaca is really a prime candidate. To Alan's critique, his road FIP- is equal to Akers' season-long value. And his road ERA is expanded just a bit by one outing where I stretched him to an emergency start when he was already a bit fatigued, and he gave up 5 runs in the 4th inning.
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Re: 56.010 – Felix Vidaca: Your 2056 Nebraska Winner

Post by Dington » Fri Oct 20, 2023 1:20 pm

If Kelly, or the other pitchers mentioned, were put in a relief role, they would probably have better numbers than Vidaca. But they're not because they're good at a more important job - starting pitcher. Also, Kelly's innings pitched are limited because Nashville has a strong bullpen so don't need to burn any arms.
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Re: 56.010 – Felix Vidaca: Your 2056 Nebraska Winner

Post by RonCo » Fri Oct 20, 2023 1:26 pm

Having more fun with numbers...Vidaca has 8 wins, and 12 saves. As a stopper, though, he doesn't get cheap saves. Here's his IP in his 12 saves:

| Save IP |
|:-------:|
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 2.1 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 2.1 |
| 3 |
| 0.1 |
| 1.2 |
| 3 |

Only one, the .1 IP was a "simple" jump in and throw a stat, and that one he came in with a runner on and a two-run lead. He's thrown 30.2 higher leverage innings for those 12 saves.
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Re: 56.010 – Felix Vidaca: Your 2056 Nebraska Winner

Post by RonCo » Fri Oct 20, 2023 1:28 pm

Dington wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2023 1:20 pm
If Kelly, or the other pitchers mentioned, were put in a relief role, they would probably have better numbers than Vidaca. But they're not because they're good at a more important job - starting pitcher. Also, Kelly's innings pitched are limited because Nashville has a strong bullpen so don't need to burn any arms.
The word "probably" is doing a lot of work there. Perhaps they would have better numbers than Vidaca...but they don't.
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Re: 56.010 – Felix Vidaca: Your 2056 Nebraska Winner

Post by RonCo » Fri Oct 20, 2023 1:33 pm

Stoppers with 160 and 180 IP have won the award before (O'Macken and Leach). When you get up to those kinds of innings with that kind of effectiveness, the arguments become valid.
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Re: 56.010 – Felix Vidaca: Your 2056 Nebraska Winner

Post by RonCo » Fri Oct 20, 2023 1:35 pm

Dington wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2023 1:20 pm
If Kelly, or the other pitchers mentioned, were put in a relief role, they would probably have better numbers than Vidaca. But they're not because they're good at a more important job - starting pitcher. Also, Kelly's innings pitched are limited because Nashville has a strong bullpen so don't need to burn any arms.
And if Kelly pitched more innings, his numbers would probably be down a little because he'd be pitching tired more often.

Again, note the word "probably." :)
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Re: 56.010 – Felix Vidaca: Your 2056 Nebraska Winner

Post by RonCo » Fri Oct 20, 2023 1:38 pm

If I'm voting, it's Vidaca. If I'm betting, it's Akers.

But yes, I'm hoping to highlight Vidaca's case for voter education. He needs to be in the discussion. :)
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Re: 56.010 – Felix Vidaca: Your 2056 Nebraska Winner

Post by Dington » Fri Oct 20, 2023 1:39 pm

He's great at what he does and incredibly valuable, but not the best when looking at others.
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Re: 56.010 – Felix Vidaca: Your 2056 Nebraska Winner

Post by Dington » Fri Oct 20, 2023 1:42 pm

RonCo wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2023 1:38 pm
If I'm voting, it's Vidaca. If I'm betting, it's Akers.

But yes, I'm hoping to highlight Vidaca's case for voter education. He needs to be in the discussion. :)
But the strength of Vidaca's case, in your opinion, is FIP-. Akers is 88. Now you're just taking votes away from Kelly :lol:
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Re: 56.010 – Felix Vidaca: Your 2056 Nebraska Winner

Post by RonCo » Fri Oct 20, 2023 1:54 pm

The case is always an amalgam of stats. FIP- is a big part of Vidaca's case, as is the quantity of innings and their leverage ... but his ERA is also in the mix, and his Wins+Saves is there for folks who like counting stats. His K/9 rate is a kicker.

Aker's case is about Wins and ERA, with a respectable (but not great) FIP-. I'm betting that will play well with voters. Kelly has a strong case, too. Again, not taking away from him at all, but in all seriousness, Hanson's case is his equal (or arguably better, though, again, Hanson will not garner many, if any votes). Cole's case is good, too, but probably fades relative to the others due to that 91 FIP-, which is really high for a historical Nebraska candidate.
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Re: 56.010 – Felix Vidaca: Your 2056 Nebraska Winner

Post by RonCo » Fri Oct 20, 2023 1:54 pm

This thread is doing good things for my post count!
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Re: 56.010 – Felix Vidaca: Your 2056 Nebraska Winner

Post by Dington » Fri Oct 20, 2023 2:39 pm

My favorite stat for Vidaca is the walkoff HR he allowed to Nashville last week :)

edit: In fact, my FAVORITE stat is 3 appearances vs Nashville. All wins for Nashville.

edit2: my FAVORITE stat is Nashville 6-0 vs SAC
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