California 2039.3 - Offseason Things That Have Happened

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California 2039.3 - Offseason Things That Have Happened

Post by Ted » Tue Jun 18, 2019 5:13 pm

Normally this is a series of posts. But I just don't have creative writing in me right now. However, I enjoy the dicussion. So here are the things - followed by my reaction.

Alfredo Martinez opted out of 34 mil - w00t. Free comp pick and I don't have to pay to buy him out (I need the cap space, I was happy with his production.)

We picked up the options on Mike Manning (2.3 mil) and Felix Avila (2.19 mil). - Someone has to platoon with all my lefties. Both of these guys were okay last year. Not great, but decent enough.

We offered arbitration to Guus Alberink. He won and got 2.7 mil in his last arb. - This is probably Guu's last season with the Crusaders. He wants 3 mil in extension and thanks more than I pay middle relief. Maybe if he comes down. But he's okay for what he is.

We traded longtime SS Jesus Flores to San Fernando. - I need cap space for next year, and while Flores' replacement isn't ready, the time was right.

We also made trades with Omaha and Huntsville that sent out Augusto Cardenas and prospects to get younger prospects. Both moves are largely prompted by next year's need to extend Luis Gracia and Miguel Ramos, as well as get ready for the expansion draft (free up protection slots).

As of right now, the 2040 Crusaders will have 35 mil in cap space to sign the pair of top starters. However, Ramos is asking for 26 x 6 at the present and Gracia is asking for 25.8 x 6. Both are ludicrous demands. Gracia's is dumb for two reasons. Mainly because he's 34 in 2039, so he's asking to be paid top marquee free agent money for ages 35-40. Only an idiot would do that. Ramos's is also idiotic, because paying nearly a third of your cap space to one player is dumb. It's even dumber when he's not one of the top 10 players in the league, or probably even top 20. Hopefully both come down. A lot. Like to 17 or so. Otherwise, they'll need new homes.
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Re: California 2039.3 - Offseason Things That Have Happened

Post by bschr682 » Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:58 pm

Ted wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 5:13 pm
Gracia's is dumb for two reasons. Mainly because he's 34 in 2039, so he's asking to be paid top marquee free agent money for ages 35-40. Only an idiot would do that.
Its only dumb if it doesn't work. I could see him getting it in FA through a bidding war...
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Re: California 2039.3 - Offseason Things That Have Happened

Post by Ted » Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:31 pm

bschr682 wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:58 pm
Ted wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 5:13 pm
Gracia's is dumb for two reasons. Mainly because he's 34 in 2039, so he's asking to be paid top marquee free agent money for ages 35-40. Only an idiot would do that.
Its only dumb if it doesn't work. I could see him getting it in FA through a bidding war...
I maintain that players asking for 28.9 percent of a team's cap space when they aren't a top ten player and are asking that for age 35-40 is not "realistic" but I'm sure there is someone out there who thinks it is, and will argue otherwise despite any mountain of evidence to the contrary.

Capped versus uncapped league debate aside, the top MLB AAVs are 21-25% of the payroll of a team operating at 80% of the luxury tax. The players similar int talent Gracia are getting around 15% of the space of a team operating at 80% of the luxury tax. The very highest AAV's in MLB are less than 20% of the luxury tax number. Yes it's not apples to apples, but our players asking for so much more seems nonsensical.

Another to look at this is probably MLB average payroll. The average MLB payroll is around 140 mil. The min contact is 550k. So if we call that the "Cap", they have about 118 in room (again min salaries for the 40 man chew up 20 mil) to our 90. Their highest FA AAV's (I'm excluding Trout because he's a very special case), are 30-35 mil, which IS just under 30% of that average number. In that regard, I suppose it makes some sense. Except that the payroll spread in MLB is pretty insane, and the 140 number is only so low because of the Tampa Bay, Miami's, and Pittburghs of the world. Throw them out and you get an average payroll around 150 or so, and then we're talking 20-25% again, not nearly 30. And that's for the TOP FA's. Not for soon to be 35 year old's or second to third tier 26 year olds.

Look at it this way, every season we have 20 or so players asking for Bryce Harper money (compared to percentage of a 140 mil MLB payroll) either via extension or FA demand. That's dumb. And unrealistic.
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Re: California 2039.3 - Offseason Things That Have Happened

Post by RonCo » Wed Jun 19, 2019 1:12 am

We can change what players originally ask for. But the proof of the validity of the ask in our market is that sometimes they get it.
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Re: California 2039.3 - Offseason Things That Have Happened

Post by bschr682 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 4:24 am

How do you know that behind closed doors negotiatons don’t start at Bryce Harper levels at the beginning and come down as the winter gives way to spring?

I’m only pushing back on this because you are stating it’s dumb as if that’s a fact when it’s an opinion. If those 2 guys of yours demands remain that high forever and they never sign sign and just rot in free agency well then okay I agree there is a problem. But look at what just happened with Kimbrel and Kuechel. Part of that was comp pick nonsense but part was ridiculous free agent demands for older pitchers...
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Re: California 2039.3 - Offseason Things That Have Happened

Post by Ted » Wed Jun 19, 2019 9:41 am

RonCo wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 1:12 am
We can change what players originally ask for. But the proof of the validity of the ask in our market is that sometimes they get it.
I disagree with this statement. This statement basically says, "The fact that the price of X is X and people pay X proves that the price of X should be X." It involves no analysis of how the price is established or its effects on other prices or the rest of the economy.

If we had a system of negotiation with free agents, your statement might have more weight, but we don't We have an auction system, so the initial asking price is of critical importance, more so than in real life. Yes someone will always submit the bid at what the player asks, but that's because they know they HAVE to or they will miss out, not because they think it is worth it.

In reality, any asking price for players would "work". The market would settle wherever it does. I think the best market would be one that mimics reality somewhat, but that is open to debate. The real problem is OOTP's inability to modify contract demands by age. Bryce Harper and Manny Machado and Nolan Arenado were able to get such huge deals because they were players in their late 20's. We have 35 year olds asking for the same amounts as 26 year olds for the same length. That's really the biggest issue.

In my case, Ramos' ask doesn't bother me as much as Gracia's. I think Ramos should be more around 23 maybe, rather than 26. Gracia's demands are insane. He wants the same amount as a 26 year old to play ages 35-40. That's nuts given they are about the same, with maybe a slight edge to Gracia.
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Re: California 2039.3 - Offseason Things That Have Happened

Post by Ted » Wed Jun 19, 2019 9:45 am

bschr682 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 4:24 am
How do you know that behind closed doors negotiatons don’t start at Bryce Harper levels at the beginning and come down as the winter gives way to spring?

I’m only pushing back on this because you are stating it’s dumb as if that’s a fact when it’s an opinion. If those 2 guys of yours demands remain that high forever and they never sign sign and just rot in free agency well then okay I agree there is a problem. But look at what just happened with Kimbrel and Kuechel. Part of that was comp pick nonsense but part was ridiculous free agent demands for older pitchers...
You have a point. But the problem is we don't negotiate. We have an auction. So the initial prices need to be reasonable. Also, the issue is the volume of players asking for these amounts. Everyone thought Kimbrel was nuts. Bryce Harper and Manny MAchado were very rare. Players well under 30 that were stars (Harper's debateable but whatever) hitting FA. Almost ALL of our top players asks for these deals. If a few did every year and got waited out like in real life, fine. But it's like 20 guys per season. Old guys, young guys. Superstars. Second tier players. It's just too many.
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Re: California 2039.3 - Offseason Things That Have Happened

Post by bschr682 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 9:55 am

I dunno. Look at what Martinez just got...
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Re: California 2039.3 - Offseason Things That Have Happened

Post by bschr682 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:01 am

Oh and the auction thing. I understand what you mean by that because of how we sim, but OOTP isn't built that way. We just happen to be using it that way. Hard to blame OOTP for that.
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Re: California 2039.3 - Offseason Things That Have Happened

Post by Ted » Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:19 am

bschr682 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 9:55 am
I dunno. Look at what Martinez just got...
What Martinez got is a very specific case of a team monkeying the system to attempt a one year deal. He also proves my point and not yours. Martinez was signed for far more than his asking price. That means that we will bid up to what we think players are worth. They do not need to set super high demands.

Frankly, I think the Martinez move is a mistake. He may not opt out, but Louisville has the cash available and few if any pending arbs coming up. It's an atypical situation being taken advantage of by a franchise in the process of gutting itself. That is NOT the case you use to argue a theme for the rest of the league's normal operation. But again, they just paid 33 percent of their cap space on one player. That would be like an average (140 mil payroll) MLB team player 46 million AAV for year one and 40 or so mil for year two. Has that ever happened? NO. The answer is no. And Martinez probably isn't even one of the top 30 players in the league any more, so it's even more nuts. He just got a 100% pay raise over last year, when everyone thought I overpaid.

Let's look at another case, San Antonio. Calvaruso just gave in to Kondo's demands and gave him 149 mil over six years. Kondo is one of the best SP's in the league probably. I'm not saying this was a bad idea. I would have had a hard time letting him walk. But he also paid the price to sign three free agents 2 offseasons ago. He paid Chang 110 mil over 6 years, gonzalez 80 mil over 4, and de castillo 120 over 5. He now has AAVs on the books of, 23, 20, 20, and 17. Kondo is the only one of those players that is a top player at his position. Maybe decastillo is a top 5 2B. Everyone of those was the asking price. He didn't bid up. He paid the demands. And now he has spent 80 of his 90 mil in cap space on four players. He's fucked. Four free agents/extensions at the price that players ask for, and he's fucked. EVERY SINGLE PLAYER IN EVERY CLASS IS ASKING TOO MUCH.

The problem is that it's wildly inconsistent. Sometimes the same player lowers his demands by 10 mil for no reason. Last years FA was somewhat reasonable. Why is everyone asking for more this year?

I'm done with this, because I'm tired of beating my head against the wall. I simply can't understand why some of you are so enamored of a system where every player in the top 30 or so demands contracts similar to the highest MLB FA contracts ever given regardless of age or scenario, and solid players demand to paid like stars. Why do we want elevated player determining the going rate of players, rather than having more reasonable demands and letting us bid up the players ourselves>

I understand that OOTP sucks at differentiating extensions versus FA demands, and that's a problem. We don't want people able to get sweetheart extensions and keep all their own players forever, but there has to be a middle ground.
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Re: California 2039.3 - Offseason Things That Have Happened

Post by Ted » Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:20 am

bschr682 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:01 am
Oh and the auction thing. I understand what you mean by that because of how we sim, but OOTP isn't built that way. We just happen to be using it that way. Hard to blame OOTP for that.
This is very true. By and large, the problem OOTP has is it's inability to differentiate between types of players when making demands. The rest is us.
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Re: California 2039.3 - Offseason Things That Have Happened

Post by bschr682 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:27 am

I get that you don't like it. Im not saying I do either. Im saying looking at it from the player point of view, they get crazy contracts in free agency and I think they are programmed to know that they will. So that's why I understand it when guys have outrageous demands. They think they can get it because some actually do.

So let 'em walk. Let others make the mistakes. Keep your engine churning.
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Re: California 2039.3 - Offseason Things That Have Happened

Post by bschr682 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:30 am

Ted wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:19 am
I'm done with this, because I'm tired of beating my head against the wall. I simply can't understand why some of you are so enamored...
Not a single person came into this thread and said yea I like paying crazy salaries. Its just some of us understand where the game is coming from. It really does make sense that some players ask for waaaayyyy too much. That's actually the benefit of this league having a salary cap. If you recognize that its too much money and someone else signs him for too much, you avoided the trap and you can leverage your cap space better than others. That means you win in the long run.
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Re: California 2039.3 - Offseason Things That Have Happened

Post by Ted » Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:44 am

bschr682 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:30 am
Ted wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:19 am
I'm done with this, because I'm tired of beating my head against the wall. I simply can't understand why some of you are so enamored...
Not a single person came into this thread and said yea I like paying crazy salaries. Its just some of us understand where the game is coming from. It really does make sense that some players ask for waaaayyyy too much. That's actually the benefit of this league having a salary cap. If you recognize that its too much money and someone else signs him for too much, you avoided the trap and you can leverage your cap space better than others. That means you win in the long run.
If it was "some players" it would be fine. It's not. It's all the players. That's the point I'm trying to make and everyone keeps ignoring. It's too many players. Again, look at Calvaruso's situation. Four players. Just four players that include one star and three above average regulars, and he's spend 88 percent of his cap space. You literally can't afford more than two solid free agents at a time in this league.

Look at all the teams that said they won't be spending in FA this year back in Ron's thread, despite having cap space. Look at the good teams in this league and see how many free agents those teams have. Look at them and see how many guys they even have on extensions. It's ridiculous. Most of your good teams have like four or five players that are actually getting paid and the rest are on arb deals/buyouts or min contracts.
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Re: California 2039.3 - Offseason Things That Have Happened

Post by bschr682 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:46 am

I don't think lowering free agent player demands would change that...
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Re: California 2039.3 - Offseason Things That Have Happened

Post by Ted » Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:54 am

bschr682 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:46 am
I don't think lowering free agent player demands would change that...
How would it not? Lower demands means you could fit more FA's and extensions. It would absolutely change roster construction. Relative to us, MLB has lower contract demands and their competitive teams are about 50% free agents and players with extensions that include years after arb years.

Our competitive teams have 25-30% FA contracts and extensions past arb years.

They are different because our Fa and extension demands are so high that we let everyone go to FA and replace them with min salary guys. At least the smart teams do, because we've all recognized that you can't pay the players demands some 70-80% of the time.
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Re: California 2039.3 - Offseason Things That Have Happened

Post by bschr682 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:56 am

Demands being lowered would not change the contracts being dished out much. In fact it might lead to even more bidding wars as more teams would be in on more players.

The problem isn't the game. The problem is (and same in real life) GM's just throw around silly money. I don't think that can be changed. For us it might even be worse because financial problems are sooooo easy to get out of.
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Re: California 2039.3 - Offseason Things That Have Happened

Post by Ted » Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:04 am

bschr682 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:56 am
Demands being lowered would not change the contracts being dished out much. In fact it might lead to even more bidding wars as more teams would be in on more players.

The problem isn't the game. The problem is (and same in real life) GM's just throw around silly money. I don't think that can be changed. For us it might even be worse because financial problems are sooooo easy to get out of.
I do agree with you about some of this. Specifically we have too many GMs that throw around silly money. But I do think that player demands set somewhat of a mental bar. They give a starting point. It doesn't matter if the starting point is ridiculous. If it's always ridiculous, it becomes normal.

Around 10 seasons ago player demands started to rise. That's around the time Atlantic City threw 26 mil AAVs at 2 pitchers that were probably second tier guys. We all thought they were nuts. Now 26 mil deals are commonplace. Because we all got used to it. Not because we're all dumber, or less disciplined. It became the norm. Rosters look totally different now than they did in the 20's. If someone had made Shaw's Martinez offer 10 seasons ago we would have laughed them out of the league. Now it's not THAT huge of an overpay.

But I bet there are a fair number of you who think, "It's always been this way." That's objectively wrong. It has not. 17-18 mil used to be top extension and FA dollar. Maybe that's a bit too low. But 25-30 mil is far too high. The demands set a price point. They determine the starting point for all talks. They DO matter.
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Re: California 2039.3 - Offseason Things That Have Happened

Post by bschr682 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:11 am

Personally I think some of the problem is the economic model of the game. Salaries in real life rose throughout the course of mlb history. Inflation happens. Its modeled in the game too. I do think somewhere in that black box that even though we have a strict 110 cap, the game is gently raising demands on players as time goes on because that's what would happen in a standard league.

Have a fix?
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Re: California 2039.3 - Offseason Things That Have Happened

Post by Ted » Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:32 am

bschr682 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:11 am
Personally I think some of the problem is the economic model of the game. Salaries in real life rose throughout the course of mlb history. Inflation happens. Its modeled in the game too. I do think somewhere in that black box that even though we have a strict 110 cap, the game is gently raising demands on players as time goes on because that's what would happen in a standard league.

Have a fix?
Player demands can be set within game for various levels of player. How much affect they have versus how much the game economy drives things, I don't know. We still don't know if future demands are affected by past contracts. Because the manual is completely useless and the OOTP devs insist on their game being a black box. "Fog of war for everything! Including critical factors like how the game economy works! If you can't see all the little widgets, no one can see any mistakes we make!"
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