California 2039.3 - Offseason Things That Have Happened

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Re: California 2039.3 - Offseason Things That Have Happened

Post by RonCo » Wed Jun 19, 2019 1:15 pm

A lot to unpack here. Some bulleted thoughts, for what they are worth.
  • I agree with Ted that too many guys ask for those big dollars.
  • I’d like OOTP to fix that, but if I have to chose between too many and too few, I’d pick too many. Some of these guys get their dollars, and if no one asks that number, then no one gets it.
  • I agree this is not a market that represents MLB scales. But we are not an MLB league. There are MLB leagues out there, though.
  • Our salary cap changes the dynamic of our market in extremely strong ways…as does the existence of a salary cap in all sports.
  • Players do reduce their demands as Free Agency progresses unless the dollars being offered are close. Egbert Behner, for example has gone from the $28M range down to $23, and remains unsigned. My guess is he’ll go lower unless someone takes him at that point.
  • Free Agency, almost by definition (and in real life), is more like an auction than it is a negotiation. In reality, it’s a mix, but any good agent in the world wants to get his player into an auction.
  • Brett is right that OOTP online leagues drive a different dynamic than OOTP stand-alone merely by our long-sim schedules. I played in a day-by-day league once, and the dynamic was quite good.
  • I could be wrong here, but I do not think that players in the game get affected by other players signing other contracts.
  • Atlantic City, and now San Antonio, are managing competing teams while using big dollar FA. Their runs tend to be shorter, but they are still good teams. Their choice of this approach is merely a strategy they prefer. Joshua is getting my attention these days as being someone who uses these well despite not making me comfortable.
  • In a related point, I often suggest strongly that teams who are building still use all their budget (use all your resources to get better). This will lead them to over-pay at times. Ideally, these over-pays are short-term, though. That said, (and though I was only tangentially a rebuilding team after a single 80-win season) signing Salazar to an “overpay” contract of $16M plus options paid for itself in both performance and fan popularity.
  • In other words, it’s possible to overpay to Market forces and still make money. I understand, though, that Ted is painting with a broad brush on those.
  • But, yes, at the end of the day there are a few too many over-asks. See points 1 and 2.
  • Extensions are a bit of a different beast.
  • I also agree with Ted that OOTP players are not particularly good or consistent enough in their asks during extensions. I think this is getting better in OOTP, but they are generally unaware of the full complexities of their situations—particularly arbitration.
  • Extensions, I think, tend to give hometown discounts to some degree, but not always.
  • Players are also not as aware as they need to be of the existence of budgets above the salary cap. A real life star, for example, who wanted to play for a winner might well go to California and ask for $8M guaranteed with a $10M bonus on 25 PA. He gets his money either way.
  • This gets to my underlying point on “realism” here. I prefer my players to act like I think a human being would act in their situations. So, yes, I agree with Ted that our player’s asks are not in line with MLB players, but I also note that our players live in a different environment than those MLB players, so I would expect them to react differently.
  • Still, I also agree OOTP can get better at this…for all the reasons above.
So, anyway, Ted's right, but it's also a "it is what it is" to some degree, and a matter of personal preference in other ways. Bottom line, though, it seems to me that a league that has a salary cap will never really be able to operate in the same way leagues without salary caps will operate. To some degree, the market is what the people in the market are willing to pay.
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Re: California 2039.3 - Offseason Things That Have Happened

Post by recte44 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 3:58 pm

IT's a tough line to walk. Every 10 years or so I have to really look at the financials and monkey with them a bit to make sure everything is balancing out. It might be time for me to take a look again.

I gotta say with Gillstrom, Behner, et al still out there in the FA pool and it's preseason, I applaud the self discipline shown by our GM's this offseason.

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Re: California 2039.3 - Offseason Things That Have Happened

Post by jleddy » Wed Jun 19, 2019 7:40 pm

RonCo wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 1:15 pm
  • But, yes, at the end of the day there are a few too many over-asks. See points 1 and 2.
Like in all sports, all it takes is one team to overpay. 29 (soon to be 31!) GMs could think a player's offer is outrageous but if one GM jumps the gun and opens the vault, it changes everything.

I'd be interested in seeing a study (?) or simulation (yes, a simulation of a simulation...we've gone full OOTP Inception) of league-wide collusion, whereas every free agent is offered their initial demand (or less), there's no countering of new demands, and see how how free agency talks go from there. Just for shits and giggles...
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