California 2038.10 - An arrogant Jerk's Guide to Sustained Winning, Part 3

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Re: California 2038.10 - An arrogant Jerk's Guide to Sustained Winning, Part 3

Post by usnspecialist » Sat May 04, 2019 6:45 am

bcslouck wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 6:12 am
usnspecialist wrote:
Fri May 03, 2019 2:55 pm
That probably wasn't the best decision for you...
Thanks for the news flash bud. :lol:
I really hope my pun didn't fly over your head...
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Re: California 2038.10 - An arrogant Jerk's Guide to Sustained Winning, Part 3

Post by bcslouck » Sat May 04, 2019 7:12 am

usnspecialist wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 6:45 am
I really hope my pun didn't fly over your head...
Oh fuck. It did. :bag:
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Re: California 2038.10 - An arrogant Jerk's Guide to Sustained Winning, Part 3

Post by HoosierVic » Sat May 04, 2019 7:54 am

So, Ted, what you're saying, I think, is that you can use free agency, but do so sparingly. Approach it with a budget in mind, don't bite on long-term contracts for older players, and concentrate on building your organization from within.

I'm curious, then, about your philosophy on trading in this system. Are you very active on the trade market, and what do you look for? Do you trade for need, or more to keep building your pile of wealth?

I guess what I'm wondering here is whether, as a rule, you pass on sort of urgent "I need to plug this hole now" sorts of things in favor of the long view?

If you can't tell, by the way, I'm really interested in this approach. It's really thought-provoking.

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Re: California 2038.10 - An arrogant Jerk's Guide to Sustained Winning, Part 3

Post by aaronweiner » Sat May 04, 2019 9:02 am

The biggest free agency move I made was to add Enrique Gomez for about $85 million for four years with two vesting options at another $30 million. That's a long term deal to a older player.

The key to free agency is that you shouldn't be overwhelmingly active unless:

1) You've worked out the numbers and the guy you're getting is a bargain.

2) You're a piece away from Point A, B, or C and that guy can get you there.

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Re: California 2038.10 - An arrogant Jerk's Guide to Sustained Winning, Part 3

Post by JimBob2232 » Sat May 04, 2019 10:53 am

RonCo wrote:
Fri May 03, 2019 10:10 pm


So, if I have only $80M to spend (because my budget is low), I can only spend $1.6M.WAR. That’s very hard. If I have $110M to spend, I can spend $2.2M/WAR. If I consider replacement to be 50 wins, that adjusts those numbers up ($2.5M/WAR at 50 wins as replacement). Similarly, if you think 90 wins is the goal, well, you can do your own math. 😊

Top end that seems reasonable to me is $3M. But that’s me.

So if a guy is 5 WAR player, all other things being equal, he’s “worth” $15M per season. Or less. You have to make that call, of course.
Agree with much of what you wrote (cant agree with all of it, or we'd all be managing our teams the same way!), but this one particularly grabbed me.

I;d argue that not all WAR is the same. A guy with 1.0 WAR might be worth $3M in your scenario, but a guy with 5 WAR should be worth in excess of $15M (in the same scenario). its not linear. Both guys are occupying a spot in your lineup. The more WAR per spot, the better off you are, and the more valueable they are

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Re: California 2038.10 - An arrogant Jerk's Guide to Sustained Winning, Part 3

Post by Ted » Sun May 05, 2019 7:53 pm

JimBob2232 wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 10:53 am
RonCo wrote:
Fri May 03, 2019 10:10 pm


So, if I have only $80M to spend (because my budget is low), I can only spend $1.6M.WAR. That’s very hard. If I have $110M to spend, I can spend $2.2M/WAR. If I consider replacement to be 50 wins, that adjusts those numbers up ($2.5M/WAR at 50 wins as replacement). Similarly, if you think 90 wins is the goal, well, you can do your own math. 😊

Top end that seems reasonable to me is $3M. But that’s me.

So if a guy is 5 WAR player, all other things being equal, he’s “worth” $15M per season. Or less. You have to make that call, of course.
Agree with much of what you wrote (cant agree with all of it, or we'd all be managing our teams the same way!), but this one particularly grabbed me.

I;d argue that not all WAR is the same. A guy with 1.0 WAR might be worth $3M in your scenario, but a guy with 5 WAR should be worth in excess of $15M (in the same scenario). its not linear. Both guys are occupying a spot in your lineup. The more WAR per spot, the better off you are, and the more valueable they are
You have a point Jim, but most people are playing sub 2 in players in quite a few lineup spots. It's actually pretty difficult to construct a team getting significantly positive value out of 9 positions. So paying a ton to one star only makes sense if it wouldn't be better spread over a couple players. There are scenarios where both are right. For the most part, I agree with you, the linear dollar per WAR model is not that great. It intuitively doesn't make sense because the distribution of players is not linear (i.e. there are more than five times as many 1 WAR players as there are 5 WAR players.)
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Re: California 2038.10 - An arrogant Jerk's Guide to Sustained Winning, Part 3

Post by RonCo » Mon May 06, 2019 10:44 pm

The main thing I like about your base idea, is that you need to leverage your resources. One of your resources is your current budget. In the time I've been here, we have had several teams that didn't spend their budget and didn't win (winning on low budget is great...but rare). If you leave $20M of your budget unspent, then literally anything you got for that $20M (as long as it's not long term spending) is a positive.
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Re: California 2038.10 - An arrogant Jerk's Guide to Sustained Winning, Part 3

Post by udlb58 » Wed May 08, 2019 11:42 pm

HoosierVic wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 7:54 am
So, Ted, what you're saying, I think, is that you can use free agency, but do so sparingly. Approach it with a budget in mind, don't bite on long-term contracts for older players, and concentrate on building your organization from within.

I'm curious, then, about your philosophy on trading in this system. Are you very active on the trade market, and what do you look for? Do you trade for need, or more to keep building your pile of wealth?

I guess what I'm wondering here is whether, as a rule, you pass on sort of urgent "I need to plug this hole now" sorts of things in favor of the long view?

If you can't tell, by the way, I'm really interested in this approach. It's really thought-provoking.
As someone who is very active (well, not as much the last year+) in the trade market; I'd say I look at a few things when looking to acquire a ML player:

1) How much of an upgrade is he over what I already have? If I'm acquiring a guy who doesn't immediately make at least one position noticeably better, I'm not very likely to make a trade.

"Wait, how can one player improve multiple positions," you may ask. Well, take my current roster for example. Wareham is a very good hitter for a SS, but a terrible fielder. If I could acquire a 2B who is an offensive upgrade over what I have there and the player is a better defender than Wareham; I can move Wareham to 2nd, where he's a better defender and I get better defensively at 2 positions and get an upgrade in offense as well. Or, if you have a 4th/5th starter that would benefit from a move to the pen and you can pick up a better 3rd starter, you get better at #3, your #3 moves down to #4, and that #4 can move to the bullpen, improving 3 roster spots.

2) Just like free agency, what does the player's contract look like and will it cause any issues going forward. The biggest thing to consider is making sure you have some flexibility to extend your top players who are still in arbitration, potentially buying out some free agency years and avoiding a massive contract for a season or two.

3) Can you acquire the player without giving up a critical part of your farm system. That doesn't mean not giving up a good prospect; but if you only have one good SP prospect, you might not give him up as easily as if you had 2 or 3 of them (take my current farm system; my top prospect is a 2B. That is a potential trade chip as I have a rookie of the year candidate currently playing 2nd and neither of them have the arm to play SS or 3B)

4) Just don't get too tied up in teenage prospects. They are highly volatile, so if you have a high potential 17 year old, a team looking to keep on the wining track shouldn't balk at trading him if you can acquire an established ML in his mid-20s.
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Re: California 2038.10 - An arrogant Jerk's Guide to Sustained Winning, Part 3

Post by udlb58 » Wed May 08, 2019 11:47 pm

Ted wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 9:02 pm
The Draft
A very good way to grow value is to NOT let OOTP draft for you, and be very careful to not draft players with critical flaws (like corner OF's with 2 range or middle IF's with 2 error or older pitchers with stuck change ups or multiple arm injuries). You CAN out draft the game engine very easily for about 15 rounds in ANY draft pool. Even the old, thin ones we used to have.
:plus1: :plus1: :plus1: :plus1:

I would second what Ted says here (guys with <4 range cannot play anything but 1B/DH...maybe the odd 3B could play with 3 range if he's elite in other defensive ratings), so rank those LF/RF/3B/2B players with low range as if they were a 1B. Also, make sure to look at their defensive ratings and not just position ratings. Often a guy who's a 1B or LF and only played there his amateur career, may have the defensive ratings to play a more valuable position if allowed to play there. AND always look for the pitchers who may be able to hit, or batters who can pitch. There aren't good enough ones to convert every year, but every couple of years you come across one or two.

There are certain things that are more likely to bump than others too; a hitter is more likely to see bumps in CON and/or POW than defensive ratings; a pitcher is more likely to bump STU (though velo jumps) than MOV or CON; etc.
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