Off Topic
WHAT IS A GOOD RELIEVER WORTH?
June 30, 2047: YELLOW SPRINGS – The calendar says it is mid-June, and the Yellow Springs Nine are sitting at their rightful place atop the Heartland Division—a group that is once again arguably the best in baseball. It is, to be clear, a bit of a confounding statement. The team finished third last season, and has lost a bucketload of players as well as its starting center fielder and its rotation ace. Pre-season prognosticators had graded them down to begin with, and the fact of the matter is that the Nine offense (295 runs scored, 14th “best” in the Frick League) has been downgraded so far that, if it were meat byproduct, it would not be worth using as dogfood.
Enter, however, the pitching staff—especially the bullpen—which may be among the best ever fielded in any BBA season.
ROTATION
Bereft of Valle, Nine fans assumed the rotation would implode. What has happened, however, has been the opposite. “We’ve really kind of bonded,” said de facto leader Dave Lee (7-5, 3.85). Lee has become a player who is generally thought of as one of the better pitchers in the league, but one can argue that he’s quietly become team’s fourth best starter. Weird.
The full spotlight is beginning to fall on rookie Loan Duvall (5-1, 1.98), who was called up only due to Valle’s injury and who has been the team’s quiet stopper. Add to him fellow rookie Roy Minty (4-3, 3.03), and second year starter Jerry Bourque (5-4, 3.80) and you’ve got a collection of three deadly arms that have benefited from a lack of attention that is now coming their way. The team’s fifth starter is veteran Ernesto Ramos (3-6, 4.62) who has turned into a bit of an inning eater more than a reliable winner.
Add them up and you’ve got a collection that, but ERA, is the Frick’s third best club.
That alone, however, would not be enough to counter-weigh an offense that’s been as tepid as the Nine’s. Third best is good, of course, but that 3.61 starter ERA is also a considerable distance from Sacramento’s 3.25 and Chicago’s 3.38.
The News Narrative for the Nine this year is the full blossoming of the bullpen.
BULLPEN
The Yellow Springs Nine’s bullpen has thrown 277 innings, more than any Heartland team except Madison, and more than any Pacific team except Long Beach and Valencia. Their combined ERA is 1.53. To put this in context, Portland’s bullpen ERA is 2.53—a figure that is second best in baseball and sits a full run worse.
What’s the value of a good reliever, right?
Yikes. What a question, eh? But the real question here is “what is the value of an entire bullpen full of good relievers? Based on the first half of the season, the answer is: Massive.
How massive?
Well, let’s start here: by ERA, left-handed stopper Angel Hernandez is the worst arm in the Nine pen. He’s thrown 36 innings of 2.48 ERA ( 2.66 FIP, 64 FIP-). Given that his career ERA is 2.10 over six earlier seasons, these are interesting numbers. And that’s the ‘worst.’ He came to the team as a last first rounder in 2036 (#36 overall).
Fellow stopper RHP Derrick Chaney has tossed 55 innings of 1.80 ERA. The FIP is 1.45, good for an astronomical 34 FIP-. Chaney is in his third full season with the club, and is throwing down a stunning 13.6 K/9 to pair with a 9.2 K/BB ratio. Like Hernandez, Chaney was a late pick in the 2042 draft’s first round (#35 overall).
For the first time in a while, the team has actually gone away from the “three stopper” arrangement, though, and has put soft-tossing Al Colbert into a standard closer role. He’s responded with a 1.17 ERA, and 19 saves. I know the saves counting stat has taken a beating the past few real-time years, and I totally get it. But there’s the data, eh? Colbert, too, has a sterling K/BB ratio (8.3), despite not striking out a whole lot of hitters (7.9/9). He has been touched for three homers in his 31 innings, so the FIP is a little higher than others—but that ability to control walks makes a difference. Colbert will likely end the season at #4 on the team’s all-time save list. He came to the team as a third-round pick in 2038.
So, there’s the big three. All three of these guys are interesting in that they came to the team through the draft and are “home grown” in that fashion.
But seriously, it does not stop there.
Veteran Roberto Ramirez is throwing out of the set-up role, and has tossed 27 innings of 1.01 ERA, 2.33 FIP, 56 FIP- ball. He’s in his fifth season with the club after having been essentially purchased from Nashville for $12M in 2039.
The rest of the pen consists of a pair of left-handers and a pair of right-handers. The lefties are Ernesto Martas (0.38 ERA, 2.38 FIP, 57 FIP- in 23 innings … and yes, that’s a 0.38 ERA) and Josh Henson (0.40 ERA, 1..63 FIP, 39 FIP- in also 23 innings … and yes, that’s a 0.40 ERA ... out of the pen). Martas came to the team in a trade with Omaha, and Henson was a 5th-round draft pick back in 2038. Both are in their fifth seasons with the parent club.
The right-handers are Dean Stranaghan (1.54 ERA, 1.39 FIP, 33 FIP- in 41 innings) and rookie Damian Taylor (1.88 ERA, 1.31 FIP, 31-FIP- in 38 innings). At 100 MPH, Stranaghan is one of the team’s hardest throwers, and has struck out 59 hitters in those 41 innings. He started his career in the UMEBA but was released before singing a $20K bonus to join the Nine. We’re guessing everyone thinks that was a wise investment. Taylor was drafted last season, and probably would have gone straight to the big leagues if there had been a spot on the roster. He’s only 21 years old, so some are wanting to slow his roll a little, but he’s tossing 97 and some scouts say his changeup is showing early signs of getting better. Right now most fans would be content to see him simply take over for Colbert when he’s done, but some are dreaming of another Carlos Valle of Crash LaLoosh.
Summary
So there we have it. The reason the Nine are setting where they are—at least to my untrained eye. Here are a few other big numbers to roll around in your mind. The YS9 bullpen has, to date, yielded 15 home runs in its 277 innings. Only Phoenix (18 in 287 innings) is in the same zip code. Chicago (19 in 217 innings) can at least dream of it. They have walked only 49 hitters. The Sacramento bullpen, too, has allowed only 49 walks, but they have pitched 259 innings, eighteen fewer than the Nine’s staff.
Opposing hitters are managing only a .163 batting average against—forty points better than second place Charlotte’s .203. The OBP against is only .214. Slugging is .251.
It makes one wonder if this year’s Frick Egan award will be cancelled in lieu of simply giving it to the Nine collective.
