Fate has a funny way of playing games, though. Padilla’s 2037 was a fine success at the plate (a career-best .310/.341/.411, good for a solid .782 OPS—which will play all day long at short. But the glove went foul again, as he committed thirty-seven errors and posted a putrid -3.5 ZR in 156 games. More advanced metrics suggest he was maybe only a handful of plays worse than an average shortstop, suggesting his ranginess overcame a decent portion of his chronic case of granite glove, but the fact was that he looked bad.
“How much of our pitching problem is Padilla?” one fan said in a call-in show, prompting an entire wave of angst and anger to flow over him.
2038: MORE OF THE SAME?
The bottom line here is that barring some kind of trade, YS9 fans are almost certain to see Padilla back in 2038, and that’s probably a good thing in reality. One expects the glove to regress back to the positive side, and while he’s no Zapala, his bat is clearly above average for the position. Add in the fact that he signed a $1.7M extension last year to bypass his first arbitration season, and he’s probably a financial value, also. Beyond that, it’s fairly clear that shortstop prospect Tai hoi Zhu (6/7/5/4/7 Talents) is not quite ready (and even if he is, Zhu may be best served to move to second base).
And, while some fans will clamor for young Dong-po Thum (10/10/6/5/9 Talents) to make his debut next year, it’s unlikely that the highly anticipated arrival will actually be ready to play that early, and even if he were, the question of service time becomes relevant. Would the team burn a year’s control to bring Thum up if Padilla can be a 3+ WAR guy? (Trade him, say the Thumbers among us!)
At the end of the day, though, everything about Miguel Padilla (7/7/2/4/9 Talents) adds up to the big question of which version shows up in 2038.
Obviously, a positive outcome would help the Nine in either direction they go. If Padilla’s true defensive value is a positive (which is still possible…he’s +3 over two years), then the team does better, and his trade value goes up. If his defensive value stays down, he’s still probably a solid contributor to a winning club, but the sizzle goes a bit out of his trade value.
“We like Miguel,” said assistant GM Phillip Watson. He’s been an important part of very successful teams in the past and we expect him to be a part of them in the future.”
A statement to which sarcastic fans then ask: “Okay, which successful team are you trading him to?”
That’s the fan game. A team, or a player, can never really win, eh?