The YS9 WAY: Minor Leagues

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The YS9 WAY: Minor Leagues

Post by RonCo » Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:14 pm

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I remember doing a podcast with Recte regarding how we manage our minor leagues, and I made a comment that I sometimes wake up thinking about my AA center fielder and wondering how I can get him more at bats. That’s just kind of how I’m wired. I love player development, and by that I don’t mean I love drafting a bunch of guys with blue bars and watching them tear through the system. It’s great when that happens, of course, but it’s not the usual for me.

The YS9 have not had a top 10 pick since 2028, when we picked JJ McQuade up at #10 exactly. In 2029 we picked 19th (Earl Jackson). 2030 saw us drop to #24. We’ve been selecting in the 28-30 slots pretty much from that time on—with only one dip to #24 after that horrendous 2037 bad-beat we got.

And, yet, I think it’s fair to say that the YS9 system has produced a long line of really good baseball players, and even a few Superstars. Carlos Valle (who I refrenced in an earlier post) was a 4th-round pick. Jerry Bourque and Antonio Hernandez (who are in my current rotation) came as another 4th round pick and as a minor league free agent. Al Colbert, who may be the best reliever in the business today, was a third-round selection. I’ve got #1s in there, too, of course. But, again, realize those are late #1s.

The point here is, braggartly or not, the YS9 system is among the top in the league, despite drafting in disadvantaged slots.

Why is that?

Well. The real answer is “I don’t know, but I’ve got some pretty good guesses.”

Let me ramble a bit.

The bottom line is that for every hour I spend thinking about or working on my major league roster, I probably spend three or more on the minors. For my money, this is the lifeblood of a team that succeeds in Sustained Winning. I’ll talk specifically about assessing talent in the next part of this, but I want to lay the foundation for how I think about and use the development environment of the OOTP platform as I go about things. (The good news here is that using “simple” real life mind sets will take you a very long way, IMHO).

This post, then, is about basics of organizational operations, I suppose.

Let me start here:

Age Appropriate Levels

The prime directive of my organizations is that I do my best to staff every slot with age-appropriate players. There was a time in OOTP’s world where there were values in leaving older players down in the minors, and a time in the development curves where guys developed in odd ways. Those days are mostly gone. My general view is that, while major talent shifts are still semi-random, true rating development is mostly well-keyed to playing time, but that a player’s ability to play at a level keyed to their age is a pretty reasonable facsimile of a litmus test for them.

So, yean, my Rookie Leagues are 18-20, and if you see a 21-year-old there he’s either simple filler or blocked. You will almost never see a 22-year-old on my Rookie team unless there’s some administrative thing that’s happened. Short-A is for 19-21 year-olds. Same thing for 22 and 23 year olds. A 23-year old on my Short-A team is ready to be released. A-Ball will go 20-23, though today I have one 24-year-old “real” prospect in A-Ball simply because he’s been very slow to develop, but his potential is still off-the chart (Bryan Longstaff).

See, even I can break my rules if absolutely required.

The point, though, is that I pretty much never use a lower minor league slot to stash a 25-29 year old veteran. Sorry Crash.

AA is for 20-25 year-olds, and the idea that if you’re 23 and you’re not in AA you’re not a real prospect is mostly in full effect.

You get the idea.

In the old days when someone would ask me when I promoted a player, I would talk about ratings and league average ratings and whatnot, but—kudos to the game IMHO—it’s gotten sophisticated enough that as a very good rule of thumb I can just say work to promote players as much by basic age levels as anything else. This also means that if a player really SHOULD be promoted due to age, and I can’t find a place for him at the next level, I’ll do my best to trade him for just about anything (I traded two guys recently for bonus cash, because the players had value, but the cash was more valuable to my Sustained Winning infrastructure than these two blocked players were).

I’ll talk more about playing time in a moment, but for now let’s divert to:


Filling the Organization

Of, course minor leaguers come from the draft. But they also come from IFA, minor league free agents, and trading with other teams. To a degree most of these processes are somewhat pedestrian, or at least their uses are somewhat obvious in process. I practice, though, there are nuances. I shall no commence to rambling.

Draft for Position: if you’ve been around me long enough you’ll have heard me say that I draft for position. That sounds simple enough, right? But I think people get caught up in the idea that my mind goes counter to the idea of “draft best player available.” To a degree they are right. The first round is often an exception (maybe more on that later), but on down the line I’ll take a bit of a lesser overall value guy who I know I can play rather than draft the guy who’s a bit better but blocked. This is because I don’t trust the minor league trade market (most of my fellow GMs aren’t as interested in minor league deals for “interesting” prospects), and because my opinion is that playing time in the minors is golden … if a guy can’t play enough, he’ll be harder to trade later, so why not take the guy you can bet a couple hundred AB for?

You get the idea.

This affects me different ways, I suppose.

From hearing other people talk, I get the impression that several GMs spend time scouting the minor league pool. I, on the other hand, rarely look at it until the class drops, and even then I don’t spend much time on it until I’m a few slots away.

I do, however, spend hours upon hours sorting through my organization. I’m asking myself things like: If I get a developed 23-year-old, can I slide him into AA and improve that team? Or which of my International Players do I want to give playing time to in R-Ball (which is valuable so I know who NOT to draft). Or, if the best player available will block that International guy, how good does he have to be to make it worth leaving the International guy in the Complex? I’m also looking at development paths of the players I have. Who do I think will move up, hence create a place for more playing time? Which of my “older” minor leaguers will I release if I need to create time for the guys below?

I find that after I’ve done that exercise I understand where my organization can use help or leverage various talents. So when it comes time to make decisions, I can spend five or ten minutes fiddling in the draft pool and be comfortable prioritizing (or maybe call if optimizing) my selection.

International Free Agents: Assuming I have cash, I’ll always buy at least one IFA. Now that the league has gone to $5M as the penalty level (rather than $1M), I can almost always find someone I’m interested in. At that point, I’m asking myself (again, assuming I have any cash), do I want to go over the cap and lose spending power next year. This year, for example, I did—this despite the fact that there weren’t many Major Prospects in there. I chose to do so because I thought I could get quick playing time for at least two of them.

Bottom line, I’m generally surprised more teams don’t drop a million or three on a flier prospect—though to be fair, I don’t know the financial structure of those teams. This is, however, one of the reasons you want to put finances and revenue building first. It’s very helpful to have a little grunt around to take a chance on the development engine bringing you a Solid Player (or, gasp, a Superstar).

Minor League Free Agents: At least three or four times a season, and often more, I will spend considerable time scanning the free agent lists, with the express purpose of simply upgrading that AA CF, or Short-A catcher, or whatever. My decision points here are pretty simple. I look at the MiFA and I look at the guys on my team(s) and simply say “is that guy better?” If so, I sign him, put the other guy on DFA, and eventually release them.

Note, I’m not asking “is that minor league FA ever going to play in the majors?” I’m simply deciding if he’s a better baseball player (for his age) than the guy I have. Sometimes, if I really like the guy, I add a signing bonus. My current reliever Dean Stranaghan came to me that way, and I recall another GM saying he’s put in a MiL contract offer, but without the bonus. Stranaghan developed up nicely, and is now one of the better, yet under-rated, relievers in the game). On the whole, now that I have a little spending grub, I probably spend $2M or so in any year on bonuses for minor league deals, though that number varies widely (I spent a ton the year we had the unexpected boon of a bunch of undrafted UMEBA prospects dumped into the pool, one of whom is Dian Sartika, my current utility/platoon infielder).

Again, having lots of revenue over cap is the oil that greases this thing.

Other Teams: One can, of course, acquire minor leaguers from other teams. Quite honestly, in this day of plenty in the 40-45 overall range, it seems imperative to be scouring these teams, and asking for them—especially with a developing team. I’m tempted to say that my goal upon taking a weak team would be to fill every minor league slot with an appropriately aged guy at 40 or 45 and let the development engine have its way. Perhaps I would crash and burn, but it would be a fun exercise, and I’m guessing it would play out.

Regardless, I it’s valuable to keep all these other things in mind as I deal for minor leaguers. Can I get them playing time? Do they push other guys back? Blah, blah, blah.


DFA

I want to talk about the use of the Designated For Assignment list, too. This is a wonky bit off OOTP neepdom that has always kind of bugged me. OOTP uses DFA for a LOT of situations that don’t apply to MLB. When you receive a player in trade, for example, they go to DFA. This is not the case for MLB players. As designed, you could effectively never release a player ever (except those on the40-man roster). This is because you can perpetually slide players to DFA for a week, then return them to a roster pretty much at will. Yes, it might piss the player off, but you can do it.

So, yeah, that’s an exploit. If you do that forever, you’re essentially being an Asshole, and should probably be put on some kind of double-naught probation.

Yet … there are reasons (and justifications) for using the DFA list in something approaching that fashion.

For example, here’s another thing different about our league and real baseball. In real baseball, minor leagues have reserved rosters—mostly as a defense against running out of players when the parent team promotes a guy, or against injury. They assign active rosters from a bigger collection of players. In the past, when BBA minor league rosters were larger, this wasn’t so much of an issue. Now an injury or three at AAA would take two sims to replace.

So what is a GM to do?

Here is how I’ve come about my mind set—others can disagree, but I think it works and is fair and reasonable.
  • If I know I’m not going to use a player, I’ll release him outright
  • Otherwise I will DFA that player, and use next sim to assess
  • Any injured minor league will be replaced with a guy from DFA in some fashion or other (there could be promotions and whatnot in there, too)
  • On occasion, I’ll decide the DFAed player would be better to keep, so ‘ll DFA someone else and slide the first guy back into the minors
  • Otherwise, the player will be released after their DFA time is up
This give me flexibility to deal with injuries, and gives me essentially two sims to confirm I’ve made the right choice. Operationally, it will sometimes leave me with 10-15 guys in DFA early in the year, but see it whittle down to 0-3 b the end of the year.

Is that “right?”

I don’t know. Hardcore sticklers are probably ready to punch the screen. “But that voids the whole idea or roster limits! You’re just supposed to release guys!” they might say. I can’t argue with them, or at least not fully. But there are also reasons why real minor league teams use reserved rosters, and the clunky sim schedule of OOTP online leagues play into that idea, too. So, I dunno.

All I can say for certain is that in the name of playing time, my view is that the primary purpose of these players caught in a short-term DFA shuffle is to keep the wheels on in case of injury. That it gives me a two-sim cycle to reassess if they were the right guys to cut is a secondary value. There seems to me very little actual value to attempting to hold players as real prospects simply by shuffling them onto and off DFA.


Playing Time

Add it all up, and you get this: I want prospects playing baseball at the levels they really should be playing baseball at. It’s as simple as that. If you scan my lineups and depth charts, you’ll find that I’m fairly rudimentary in that light. I split time by position more than things like platoon splits and whatnot. I don’t tend to get too fancy with bullpen assignments—though sometimes I’ll fiddle with short or long rotations and pitch counts.

Yes, I put pretty strict counts on my starters. I do not want them throwing 170 innings in the minors, for example. Maybe I’m just being paranoid, but young pitchers being injured makes my heart weep.

I don’t think I can ever be expected to guess which player will bump like Aaron Stone of Carlos Valle did, but playing time is the resource I can give them all—and that playing time will, as a rule, result in better raw ratings progression (Burham Tahir be damned!). That’s my purpose, really. Bring players through the system such that the at least develop to their potentials without losing anything. And, of course, if the bump along the way so much the better.

- - - So, there we have that. Some general thinking on minors. Next I’ll probably go back to raw player assessment, and as part of that the ideas I have for valuations of younger prospects vs. those more developed (for example). Perhaps I’ll even talk about the platoon thing as I’ve promised before.

Or not. I mean, I’ve been talking about prospects all morning, so who really knows what tomorrow will bring, right?
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Re: The YS9 WAY: Minor Leagues

Post by shoeless.db » Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:40 pm

Managing my minors has become more fun for me than handling my BBA team. When I first joined the league, you (Ron) gave me the advice to keep my minors age appropriate and to be always looking to improve at all levels and positions. Following your advice added an additional level of game-play. I don't have a player in my organization who is a filler player. Everyone has a purpose and everyone can be replaced if another prospect can fulfill that purpose at a higher level. I want my organization to be a wave, starting small in rookie ball and becoming a tidal wave crashing into the shores of my BBA team.

The slump in talent over the past so-many-years of drafts has taken its toll on my minors' talent level, but I can rest assured my system is the best I was able to put together with the resources available. All five of my minors were above .500 last season and competing for their respective division title. That's rewarding in itself.
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Re: The YS9 WAY: Minor Leagues

Post by Fat Nige » Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:03 pm

If you manage Crap major league teams like I tend to do recently, it’s a source of pride when you can maintain a full set of age appropriate minors that actually do some winning.
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Re: The YS9 WAY: Minor Leagues

Post by RonCo » Tue Sep 21, 2021 3:08 pm

I realize I didn't actually talk about winning in the minors, but yes, as a pretty fair rule YS9 minor league teams to tend to win more than they lose, we pretty much see a team or two in the post season every year.

So that's fun.
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Re: The YS9 WAY: Minor Leagues

Post by CTBrewCrew » Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:50 pm

I too enjoy managing the minors more
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Re: The YS9 WAY: Minor Leagues

Post by allenciox » Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:51 pm

This is very valuable, thanks for sharing!

So I have some questions, I have some issues with the above... I might not be doing things right.

So all my minors have players that fit at or below the maximum age they are supposed to (22 for R, 23 for S-A, 24 for A, 25 for AA) but not within the more restrictive ages that you mention.

For example, I have a few teenagers on my AA team (below the age of 20 you mention), but they are both 40 OVR already, and if I put them in A, they have a green arrow next to them indicating that they should be promoted. So I let OVR trump age in that case. Similarly, 16 out of 27 players on my AAA team are age 22 or lower (with only four out of 27 older than the AA max of 25): once again, almost all these players have 45 OVR or higher: once again I let OVR trump age. But the converse of all this is that I do end up having some 22-yos in R and 23-yos in S-A. These are players that have a low OVR relative to their POT. For instance one of my 23-yo in S-A has 20/45 OVR/POT, and I have another that has POT of 50. If I put either of these players into A ball they will have a red arrow next to them saying they should be demoted. I guess I have been figuring (perhaps incorrectly) that players with an arrow next to them would develop better if they are at the right level OVR-wise.

So what do you do in these situations?

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Re: The YS9 WAY: Minor Leagues

Post by RonCo » Fri Sep 24, 2021 2:14 pm

allenciox wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:51 pm
This is very valuable, thanks for sharing!

So I have some questions, I have some issues with the above... I might not be doing things right.
I would never say someone else isn't doing things "right." This is my personal way, but others are fine. :)

So all my minors have players that fit at or below the maximum age they are supposed to (22 for R, 23 for S-A, 24 for A, 25 for AA) but not within the more restrictive ages that you mention.

For example, I have a few teenagers on my AA team (below the age of 20 you mention), but they are both 40 OVR already, and if I put them in A, they have a green arrow next to them indicating that they should be promoted. So I let OVR trump age in that case. Similarly, 16 out of 27 players on my AAA team are age 22 or lower (with only four out of 27 older than the AA max of 25): once again, almost all these players have 45 OVR or higher: once again I let OVR trump age. But the converse of all this is that I do end up having some 22-yos in R and 23-yos in S-A. These are players that have a low OVR relative to their POT. For instance one of my 23-yo in S-A has 20/45 OVR/POT, and I have another that has POT of 50. If I put either of these players into A ball they will have a red arrow next to them saying they should be demoted. I guess I have been figuring (perhaps incorrectly) that players with an arrow next to them would develop better if they are at the right level OVR-wise.

So what do you do in these situations?
First things first, I have no issue at all putting younger players higher up in the organization if they can play there. That's perfectly good for me. Looking at your system, you're quite young up and down the chain, so I can't really argue against anything you're doing. Mostly when I'm discussing "age appropriate" I'm arguing against giving 27 year olds AB in Rookie or Short-A. There is some flavor I've seen that teams benefit from playing older players there so the teams win more, hence helping morale (and presumably development) of the true young guys.

I do occasionally have a 22 or 23 year old in SA or whatever. Those are rare, but they happen.

As a general rule, though, I figure that a vast majority of 23-year-olds who are not good enough to play at a higher level are essentially done. So (again, in my frame of reference) why not give those AB/IP to an 18 or 19-year-old who has some small chance of breaking out? Yes, technically players will on even more rare occasions break out as older players ... but that's really, really rare. There are limits, of course. Most International Complex guys just get released, because who the heck is ever going to throw a 3/2/2 pitcher?

Anyway. There's that. I'll admit I break my own rules on occasion, but those are the rules I''m attempting to follow.

The basic guideline is that playing time is a resource that us GMs have to leverage. My goal is to make sure I'm leveraging PA and IP to the best of my ability.
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Re: The YS9 WAY: Minor Leagues

Post by indiansfan » Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:44 pm

Well I finally revamped my minors from bottom to top. Mostly age appropriate with a bunch of guys put on DFA for a sim or two to see how it shakes out. No one thing you didn't address, or I missed it, is how you handle coaches or what importance you put on them.
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Re: The YS9 WAY: Minor Leagues

Post by DugoutDesperado » Mon Oct 11, 2021 8:21 am

Interesting read. I have let my minor leaguer excel sheet get a little out of date. Updating it may clear my head on a few positions. Maybe I should update it in the off-season.

I have been using a 7-step process for making any minor league changes that has had mixed results.

Get beer. Drink first beer. Drink second beer. You get the idea.

On the bright side, some of the 1-ratings look like 11's.

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