Wolves Trade Away Three Veterans, Kick-Off Rebuild (2040.4)

[ThePreyingManta]

It’s been no secret that Madison has aggressively been shopping 2B Mons Raider, 2B Jharod Thealer, and CF Niccolo Machiavelli all off-season. While plenty of teams inquired on Thealer and Machiavelli, none met the Wolves’ asking price, and it was beginning to look like the two would remain in Madison before hitting free agency next winter. Machiavelli had publicly stated that he was unhappy in Madison and would not consider resigning with the club, while Thealer was rumored to be demanding a contract much larger than anything the Wolves would consider. Meanwhile, the market for Raider never materialized. The number of calls the team received for him could be counted on precisely one finger. That’s what you get when you mix a less than inspiring injury history (an average of 106 games over the past 4 seasons), miserable defense, and a salary of $45 million over 3 years. While Edmonton and Madison had already had discussions earlier in the off-season, talks fired up again earlier this week with things looking a bit more promising.

When all was said and done, all three major leaguers on the Madison block packed their bags and headed for the Canadian prairie. In return, the Wolves received RF Mitch Dalrymple and SP prospects Jaime Herrera and Damon Tipping. In addition, Madison agreed to retain 100% of the contracts of Raider (3/$45 million) and Thealer (1/$3.75 million). When news of the trade broke, it had some scratching their heads, so let’s take a deeper dive into it.

The Wolves and new general manager Will Gibson headed into the off-season with three major goals: shed payroll, add pitching, and get something in return for Mons Raider. Portland took care of the first portion in the Expansion Draft when they selected 1B Jon Mick and RF Steve Dempsey, taking all $55.16 million that they are owed. The other two parts were a bit more difficult, as pitching seems to be at a premium in the BBA, and, as was previously mentioned, the phones simply weren’t ringing for Raider. The asking price for Raider started out high, with the Wolves wanting at least one blue chip prospect in return. As the off-season progressed, a decision had to be made: trade Raider now for less than he’s worth or wait until midseason and hope that the market heats up (and hope that Raider doesn’t get injured). The Wolves decided to bet against Raider and his injury history. Likewise, they betted against Thealer and Machiavelli. Neither player was ever going to be resigned in Madison, but they could have netted a supplemental draft pick in 2041. GM Gibson believed that neither player would provide enough value to be a Type A free agent and net the club a first round pick. So the team decided to trade all three players rather than risk seeing their worth evaporate.

The most well known piece coming back to Madison is RF Mitch Dalrymple, a 3-time All-Star and 4-time Zimmer Award winner. However, Dalrymple is only signed for one more season and doesn’t really fit into the Madison plan. So why would the Wolves pick him up? Two reasons really: (1) To offset the massive amount of popularity lost in the trade and (2) to serve as a trade chip. No one in Madison really expects Dalrymple to end the season with the Wolves, with the most likely outcome being a trade near the deadline. But if he does stay the season in Madison, there is a chance that he is able to provide a draft pick for the team in the 2041 Amateur Draft. The team certainly hopes that Dalrymple can recreate his 2038 season; if that can happen, that should net the Wolves a valuable piece for the future, one way or another.

The other players being exchanged fill a desperate need for Madison. The Wolves have struggled massively to find pitching in recent seasons, but they now have a solid core of prospects working their way up in the minors. Jaime Herrera is the more developed of the two pitchers, and he likely has a higher ceiling as well. If he can reach his potential, he could be a very solid #3 starter, striking out lots of batters along the way. Herrera is not without concerns, however. He’s a bit underdeveloped for a 22-year-old, with his curveball and changeup still needing improvement. If he can’t figure out both of those pitches, his future is likely as a relief pitcher. That’s not what the Wolves want, but if it’s all they can get out of Herrera, they will take it. For as much as the team needs starting pitching, they need relief pitching just as badly. Damon Tipping, a 20-year-old Australian, will be heading to AAA South Bend along with Herrera. Tipping pitched last season at AAA Winnipeg, which some believe was a bit much for his stage of development. He struggled a bit there but wasn’t completely overmatched. Like Herrera, Tipping is still waiting for a few pitches to develop. His age and overall makeup make him a bit less worrisome than Herrera, and Wolves management believes that he shouldn’t have many issues making it into the rotation in a year or two. Tipping profiles as a #3/#4 starter, and will give the Wolves another solid option along with Keith Short, Yorikane Miyamoto, and Sergio Costello.

It would be exceedingly difficult to call this trade an outright win for the Wolves. But it would also be tough to call it a loss. The only thing that the Wolves truly lost in their long-term standing is a bit of money over the next three years, money that they will likely not need unless they begin to compete earlier than expected. If either Herrera or Tipping develops better than expected or if Madison is able to trade Dalrymple for a good return, it could turn into a clear win for the Wolves. But as things stand right now, Madison has to feel good that they have officially kicked off the rebuild and have a few more pieces to watch for the future.

[crobillard]

I've always like this deal for you FWIW. I wouldn't have brought it up otherwise. I think our talks developed really naturally. The immediate reaction really concerned me because I don't want it to seem like I'm sharking good pieces away from a new GM. Every GM is talented in this league, so I don't really hesitate to contact anyone based on their experience or inexperience. I'm legitimately excited to see what you can do with the Wolves in this rebuild. Thankfully, the tone of the discussion regarding this trade has changed as the league thought a little more about the deal. We have a lot of smart people in this league dude and I thought this deal worked out well for both of our team's goals. Thanks for the deal. I hope we can discuss more of them in the future.

[bschr682]

Dalrymple is the wildcard. If you can flip him for a good haul it could make the deal a wash. I don’t like either of the prospects you received. The one guy is 22 with only 5 mov and a stuck 3rd pitch changeup. He actually could end up being bad enough to not even be bullpen worthy. The other guy is only 20 but a righty pitcher with weak movement has never worked in Madison.

If both bust, you traded Thealer and Machiaveli for basically just ditching raider but you still have to pay him. That’s what I’m balking at. Seems really risky and there was no rush to do it.

[ThePreyingManta]

I knew this deal wouldn't be popular with some people. I'm not even crazy about it myself. I think it has potential to be good for me, but just as much potential to give me almost nothing. As far as there being no rush, it's always possible that injuries could come up and prevent any chance of a trade later in the season. Maybe I should have waited, but I felt it was better to make the trade now and guarantee a return with some guys that I like, even if I'm not crazy about them.

[bschr682]

Regardless, if you have a plan and stick to it, you’ll be fine. Someone will come calling for Dalrymple.

[usnspecialist]

I bet you can end up flipping mitch, but I can also see you signing him long term and filling in the pieces around him (especially if you front load the deal).

[RonCo]

To me ... the real leverage points to this deal are Tipping and Herrera, who could be worth many more millions than Will is paying (or not). The deal is both big,and heavily time shifted, though. Dalrymple is just there to offset the loss of Thealer--who will be the real impact loss. A LHB 2B like that is hard to find/replace. That's just how I would see it, though.

[7teen]

My two issues are these with the trade:

1. Paying all of Raiders salary. Maybe I’m still too attached and biased but I think the guy is too good to be trading him off AND paying his salary. This deal; player for player, straight up. Ok. But the salary retention makes no sense.

2. Given the flexibility of having Dempsey and Mick off the books, I might had been more patient by putting Thealer at 2B and Raider at DH/1B and perhaps seeing if their value boosted. It was no secret I played both out of position to try and boost offensive production. I’m not so sure it didn’t increase Raider’s likelihood of injury. Thealer is probably a full 1-2 WAR better as a 2B than he is as a SS.

[CTBrewCrew]

Walking into this club its nice to know the thought process of the previous GM

[usnspecialist]

given how mitch is playing, you can probably still get good rental value if you want to flip him now.