That's What Cheesehead: 35.34 - Road Woes

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That's What Cheesehead: 35.34 - Road Woes

Post by 7teen » Fri Oct 05, 2018 9:58 am

As I've pointed out several times throughout the season in the sim discussions and Team News, Madison has pretty much sucked on the road. With a 6-game road trip coming up in the next sim, it is likely that Madison will be pretty much eliminated from post-season consideration after returning 0-6. Before you assume I'm being dramatic, 3 of those games are in Long Beach and Madison is 0-12 in the state of California this season. That 0-12 mark is a large factor in why the Wolves are a total of 7-21 on the road this season. It also made me wonder if it's just bad road mojo or something more. Recte brought up an interesting point in a TN that made me look deeper. He said:
Low MO pitchers have to be what's killing you on the road.
So I decided to dig into my guys and see....

Starting Pitchers Splits with MO listed first
7 Mario Gonzalez 3.51 ERA at Home in 4 starts; 3.81 ERA on the Road in 8 starts
6 Jody Nunez 4.02 ERA at Home in 5 starts; 3.12 ERA on the Road in 4 Starts
7 Jose Cavazos 5.32 ERA at Home in 5 starts; 3.86 ERA on the Road in 4 starts
5 James Robinson 3.00 ERA at Home in 6 games and 4 starts; 6.33 ERA on the Road in 8 games and 3 starts
7 Andy Cantrell 5.77 ERA at Home in 5 games and 3 starts; 3.24 ERA on the road in 5 games and 2 starts

So at first glance, this theory doesn't get all that much support. Gonzalez is slightly better at home but not drastic. Three of our starters are actually better on the road than at home. The one real outlier has been Robinson who has been just dreadful away from Shotz Stadium. So what about the bullpen?

Bullpen Splits with MO listed first
5 Sean Spits 4.02 ERA in 17 home games; 3.38 ERA in 6 road games
7 Mauricio Graete 0.00 ERA in 11 home games; 7.04 ERA in 7 Road games
4 Harold Lane 0.93 ERA in 7 Home games, 0.00 ERA in 5 Road Games
3 Hector Diaz 0.44 ERA in 8 home games; 2.93 ERA in 7 Road Games
4 Mauro Valentin 1.54 ERA in 5 home games; 9.53 ERA in 5 Road Games
6 Ken Vazquez 4.43 ERA in 5 Home games and 2 starts; 9.00 ERA in 6 road games and 2 starts
4 Barry Ronan 5.63 ERA in 7 Home Games; 2.92 ERA in 6 Road Games
6 Chris Grant 2.08 ERA in 14 Home Games; 3.38 ERA in 12 Road Games
4 Angel Calderon 6.75 ERA in 6 Home Games; 3.38 ERA in 10 Road Games

So that's the pen. Again, I'm not sure there is enough evidence to support the low MO pitchers are struggling on the road. I think you have a little more basis to say that claim is valid when you look at Graete, Diaz, and Valentin. Spits has been better at home, but as our closer, he's not exactly been given a lot of chances on the road. And while Graete and Valentin clearly prefer the friendly surroundings of Shotz Stadium by a substantial margin, Calderon and Ronan have shown they prefer the road parks.

When broken down by MO rating, here is what I have:
3 - 1 guy, better at home
4 - 4 guys, 1 better at home, 3 on the road
5 - 2 guys, 1 better at home, 1 on the road
6 - 3 guys, 2 better at home, 1 on the road
7 - 4 guys, 2 better at home, 2 on the road

All together we have 7 guys who prefer Shotz Stadium. 7 Guys who prefer the road. The 7 guys with the higher ratings on our staff, 4 prefer home and 3 the road. The lower guys its 3 at home and 4 on the road.

So what does all of this mean??? It's probably our offense's fault or we just prefer our own beds.
Chris Wilson

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FL Pac Champs: 95

Madison Wolves 99-2039
JL MW: 99-2009, 17, 20, 21
JL WC: 12
JL: 01, 04, 09, 12
FL Heartland: 32
FL WC: 31, 33
BBA Champs: 04, 09

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FL Champs: 49, 51

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Re: That's What Cheesehead: 35.34 - Road Woes

Post by usnspecialist » Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:00 am

interesting piece of research, I would have been inclined to agree with recte on this one initially.
Randy Weigand

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