Sox Scoops 45.024: Aaron Weiner May Be Right, Damn It

[HoosierVic]

Yeah, I know. I’m breaking the fourth wall by not hiding behind Vinnie Vitale, Black Sox Tonight, Chicago News Online or any of the other usual Black Sox covers.

So, why do it now?

Cuz I feel like the Black Sox are at a crossroads and I want to think my way through this.

Here’s the thing: I’m starting to think Aaron Weiner is right, damn it. The Black Sox may be riding its current “solid but unspectacular” construction off a cliff and into the crevasse of perpetual mediocrity.

My theory, when I left the safe haven of Mumbai and took over Huntsville back in mid-2038, was to eventually build a new ballpark that would emphasize pitching and defense. Like Shoeless, that’s actually the kind of baseball I admire (which is odd, being a Cubs fan, since they NEVER play that kind of ball).

Meanwhile, because pitching is scarce and expensive in the BBA, I figured the best way forward was to grow my own, mostly through the draft and, perhaps, once in awhile through international free agency.

I mostly abandoned trading as a possibility after a royal fleecing by Omaha a couple of months after I joined the BBA (Andre Ly and Timo Dooley for Pavel Bure, Jr. and Luis Gonzales, anybody?) convinced me I didn’t know enough about how to value prospects vs. big league players to do it successfully. So I banished myself to tow-truck driving for Vinnie and turned to the draft and free agency.

When the opportunity to move the Huntsville franchise back to Chicago arose, I built the ballpark I had envisioned: a pitchers’ haven modeled directly from the original Comiskey Park, the long-time home of the Chicago White Sox.

The team I had inherited from Huntsville’s previous GM was nothing at all like the kind of team I was going to need to thrive in that park, though. It was heavy on left-handed power hitters, light on starting pitchers (outside of the dearly departed Juan Nicto) and pretty much devoid of bullpen arms.

I soon learned there were a couple of other factors I needed to take into account, too. Huntsville hadn’t been especially good for a few years prior to my assuming control, but it hadn’t been terrible, either. That meant the team’s draft position was consistently pretty meh – mid-to-low teens, for the most part. Had the mega-drafts of the mid-30s continued, that wouldn’t have necessarily been a problem. But when the draft classes returned to normal, picking in the mid-teens meant the players with “blue” skill ratings (the 8-9-10 rated guys) were pretty much gone.

So, what to do?

One thing I discovered was that there was an exception to the “blue” talent drought in the middle of the draft: relief pitchers. You could still find bullpen guys with strong “stuff” and “movement” ratings down in the teens.

And that got me to thinking: was there a path forward here? Could you build a strong team by emphasizing elite bullpen arms to go with solid starting pitchers (55-60 overall guys) and an offense of role players: decent defenders, good “eye” ratings, strong contact from one side of the plate or the other who could form half of an effective platoon?

That seemed doable. Solid-but-unspectacular SPs (Romeu Tameiro, John McClain) can be found in the middle regions of the first round. And the role-playing offensive guys seemed to be available for reasonable prices in free agency (I’m looking at you Mark Simpson, Joaquin Hebner, and Mark Wareham). Plus, I thought (or hoped) I might be able to trust myself to make some modest trades for those kinds of guys (Sebastian Fradesso, Jose Figueroa, Jose Benavidez) without dooming the franchise.

And it’s worked … to a point.

The Sox got better, bit by bit. We’ve now made the post-season three years in a row, and I entered 2045 hoping we could tie the modern franchise record by making it four seasons in a row. In my most-fevered of dreams, I figured if you can build a team that gets into the playoffs consistently, well, anything can happen.

But those are pretty fevered dreams, I’ll admit.

In his last couple of Media Guide previews, Aaron has pointed out that Chicago is solid … but seemingly rooted in place. We make the playoffs, but then exit meekly in the first round.

We need, he maintains, a difference-maker or two. Another pitching staff ace (an Amayas Moelling clone, say) or a couple of offensive powerhouses so the Sox can win 3-1 instead of losing 1-0.

After the last couple of seasons and the start of this season (as of late April, the Sox have the #2 staff ERA in the Frick, and are dead last in virtually every offensive category), I admit that I’m seeing his point.

So, what to do? I still don’t trust my ability to trade: even deals that work out (such as the one for Mitchell Purssell) leave me queasy and convinced that somehow I screwed up. What it comes down to, really, is that I don’t like trading. I don’t like the process, I don’t like the fallout, and it leaves me marginally dispirited.

But it may be necessary to get off the dime, here.

Or, perhaps it makes the most sense to just embrace solid and hope that the Sox can keep clawing their way into the playoffs and, one of these years, catch lightning in a bottle and win a post-season series or two.

It’s a dilemma – but it’s also why a league like the Brewster is so much fun. You can test theories, wrestle with interesting dilemmas, prove yourself a genius or prove yourself an idiot … and the worst that happens is your fake baseball team isn’t very good.

Still, though, I need to figure this out and the answer figures to be complicated and maybe uncomfortable.

Curse you, Aaron Weiner!

[shoeless.db]

I think you identified your problem early on ... you prefer the same style of baseball I do. We're too romantic towards baseball to actually win.

[Ted]

There's something disheartening about losing with a pitching team. I've had pitching teams most of the time, and losing in the first round of the playoffs or just missing with them just feels like you did something wrong. It's something about how getting beat 3-0 feels like your team can't ever get over the hump whereas losing 6-3 doesn't stand out as much, because it doesn't highlight your weakness.

There's something to be said for recognizing when you are mired in the mid 80's for wins, but if you can manage to stay there without trading away prospects, you actually have tremendous potential to improve.

My philosophy (and there are other good ones) is figure how to do one thing well (hitting or pitching) and figure out how to maintain it forever. When you can do that in your sleep, figure out how to do it with less of your resources. Then take the surplus and put it into the other thing. But like I said, there are other ways.

Short version, I've felt your pain, take heart fellow pitching and defense aficionado.

[HoosierVic]

There's something disheartening about losing with a pitching team. I've had pitching teams most of the time, and losing in the first round of the playoffs or just missing with them just feels like you did something wrong. It's something about how getting beat 3-0 feels like your team can't ever get over the hump whereas losing 6-3 doesn't stand out as much, because it doesn't highlight your weakness.

There's something to be said for recognizing when you are mired in the mid 80's for wins, but if you can manage to stay there without trading away prospects, you actually have tremendous potential to improve.

My philosophy (and there are other good ones) is figure how to do one thing well (hitting or pitching) and figure out how to maintain it forever. When you can do that in your sleep, figure out how to do it with less of your resources. Then take the surplus and put it into the other thing. But like I said, there are other ways.

Short version, I've felt your pain, take heart fellow pitching and defense aficionado.

Yeah, there's something about those 1-0, 2-1 losses that just stick in your craw.

I don't think I'm quite to the point yet where I can deal surplus pitching prospects ... especially since I don't have any confidence in my ability to do so. I do have a fair amount of talent laced throughout my system at this point - and would have even more without the Purssell deal (but I'm not complaining - he's a legitimate stud and was key to fleshing out my bullpen plan).

But maybe in a season or two I'll have more wiggle room - Bernie Stuart in AAA looks legit (60/80 RP; 55/60 SP) and can move into German's spot next year. If I can keep my budget in the $150 m to $140 m range I can just eat the German salary and release him. And there's a pipeline of arms moving through the lower reaches of the system, from Rookie ball to AA.

Decisions, decisions.

[aaronweiner]

That can't possibly be it. I'm only allowed to be right once a decade and that one can't be my one. I'm sure was when I picked Thai food instead of Chinese last month.

[HoosierVic]

Thai food - always a solid choice!

[7teen]

Wait!? So pitching and defense isn’t the solution? I stole your Plan, no Master Plan, no Wind Thingy, no ...... what was it again.... for nothing!?

[HoosierVic]

Wait!? So pitching and defense isn’t the solution? I stole your Plan, no Master Plan, no Wind Thingy, no ...... what was it again.... for nothing!?

I knew it! Portland cribbed the whole Master Plan(TM) from our Blueprint(TM)! We planned it all perfectly - Portland would copy the Blueprint(TM) and sink like a rock and then we'd go down right with you and ... uh ... oh wait ...

[RonCo]

It's disheartening to lose with any unbalanced team, really. There's always the thing you don't have.

It's also hard to argue the success of going to the post season so many years in a row. I certainly understand the frustration of not winning the biggest prize, though. Your fans have got to be pretty much battle-worn after not bringing back the Heartland crown over and over. If I were Vinnie (or better yet, Benny), I'd get the marketing department to start working up a "Second Place in the Heartland is the Second Winner" concept (with a tagline of "Better Than the Pacific") and see if the fans would go for it.