Special Correspondent
The Sabre’s Point:
A Sabermetric Journal
Abner wept.
And by Abner, I mean Doubleday. And by wept, I mean he took a look at the Pure Quality Start scores for the Huntsville Phantoms rotation and … well … waterworks ensued.
They stink. To high heaven … where, presumably, the cherubim and seraphim are trying to talk Abner back off the ledge.
So, anyway, if you’re not familiar with PQS, my colleague Alvin Gale did an explainer a few issues back that you can find here.
For the purposes of this discussion, though, just know that PQS grades are figured on a scale of 0 to 5, with 0 being the worst and 5 the best. The scores, essentially, measure pitching skills: stamina, limiting hits, striking guys out, limiting walks, and avoiding home runs.
Here, then, are the scores for the Huntsville rotation through the games of August 11:
Juan Nicto: 1, 3, 3, 0, 1, 4, 5, 0, 2, 2, 1, 2, 5, 4, 2, 3, 2, 2, 1, 3, 0, 3
Yu-bao Tong: 3, 5, 4, 0, 3, 0, 4, 2, 0, 1, 4, 3, 1,2, 0, 1, 1, 1, 5, 3, 3, 1
Alejandro Soto: 2, 2, 1, 3, 0, 3, 4, 2, 0, 3, 1, 4, 1, 1, 2, 0, 0, 3, 0, 2, 3, 2, 0
Vito Reyes: 0, 3, 5, 0, 0, 1, 2, 0, 0, 4, 3, 3, 0, 2
Pepe Castillo: 2, 2, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0
Manuel Peña: 2, 5, 3, 2, 3, 2, 2, 3, 3, 0
François Mangin: 2, 3, 2, 0, 4
Ismael Rivera: 0, 4
A couple of things jump out: the paucity of 4’s and 5’s – so-called dominant starts – even for the guys at the top of the rotation, and the plethora of 0's and 1's
Back in the days of the old MLB, the boys at Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster did a study charting the frequency of the various PQS scores from the 2012-2014 MLB seasons, plus the average IP, H, ER, HR, BB, K, ERA and WHIP for each score. Here’s what they found:
0 = 13% (4.3 IP; 7.3 H; 4.8 ER; 1.5 HR; 2.3 BB; 2.3 K; 10.01 ERA; 2.23 WHIP)
1 = 20% (4.8 IP; 6.8 H; 3.6 ER; 0.8 HR; 2.2 BB; 3.1 K; 6.75 ERA; 1.86 WHIP)
2 = 21% (5.5 IP; 6.1 H; 2.8 ER; 0.7 HR; 1.9 BB; 4.5 K; 4.56 ERA; 1.45 WHIP)
3 = 20% (6.2 IP; 5.4 H; 2.0 ER; 0.5 HR; 1.8 BB; 5.3 K; 2.89 ERA; 1.16 WHIP)
4 = 16% (6.9 IP; 4.8 H; 1.5 ER; 0.5 HR; 1.4 BB; 6.5 K; 2.00 ERA; 0.91 WHIP)
5 = 11% (7.4 IP; 4.2 H; 0.8 ER; 0.0 HR; 1.0 BB; 7.5 K; 0.95 ERA; 0.71 WHIP)
So, let's look at a couple of Huntsville starters and see how they stack up to the average distribution of PQS scores.
Juan Nicto
Nicto, the staff ace has recorded three “0” starts and four “1” starts: 13% and 17% of his total, respectively. He had two each of “4” and “5” starts, which is 8.69% for each. So, he’s right around average for disastrous starts (0’s and 1’s) and well below the average for dominant starts (4’s and 5’s). He throws more decent starts (2’s and 3’s) than you would expect, meaning he’s pretty steady at that level. Unfortunately, he’s steadiest at the “2” level – about 30% of his starts, and 22% at the “3” level.
His average PQS score, then, is a 2.21, which would grade out to … meh. Not awful, but also not what you’re looking for, necessarily, in your ace.
How about Tong, the number 2 starter? He has two “5’s” in 22 starts, or 9%; three “4’s”, or 14%; two “2’s,” or 9%; five “3’s,” or 23%; four “0’s,” or 18%; and five “1’s”, or 23%.
He’s right around average, maybe a tick below, for the number of “dominant” starts; well above average for the number of disastrous starts; and a bit below average for his number of decent starts.
Tong’s average PQS score is a 2.13 – which means he’s hanging onto "meh" by his fingernails. Definitely not what you’re looking for in a number 2.
I won’t bore you with the percentages for the entire rotation … but they pretty much go downhill from there.
However, I will bore you with the scores for one guy who was too bad even for Phantoms management to endure: your friend and mine, Pepe Castillo. He was yanked from the rotation (finally!) in June, and then waived in late July, when he was picked up by an unsuspecting Wichita.
An accomplishment of particular note is Castillo’s month of May, where he scored a “0” in all five of his starts. That means in none of his games did he: last more than 6 innings; allow fewer hits than innings pitched; strike out at least 5 batters; strike out three times the number of batters he walked; or not allow a home run.
Pepe Castillo
How, you might be wondering, is ol' Pepé Le Pew doing at Wichita? In his single start for the Aviators so far (on Aug. 6, vs. Brooklyn), he went 3.2 innings, allowed 6 hits, 5 earned runs, struck out 2, walked 2, and allowed 1 HR.
So, if you’ve been playing along at home, you know what his PQS score for the game was: 0.
Fantastic.
Here’s a box of Kleenex, Abner.
If you insist on watching the rest of the Huntsville season, you’re gonna need ‘em.
