37.11. Post Draft (and Trades) Prospect Rankings (1-10)

[agrudez]

After having 4 picks in the first 2 rounds of the draft (from not signing draft picks last season) and becoming a bit of a seller this season, the Phantoms minor leagues have been completely revamped in a rather short time period. And although OSA only deigns to give us the #20 spot in their top systems rankings, I whole heartedly disagree and am excited about the pool we have. It might be because I'm habitually a buyer or because our drafts have been so much better of late, but I can honestly say that I can't remember ever having so much in a prospect system to be legitimately enticed about watching grow as I currently do now. Anyway, without further ado, let's get on with the ranks (with one note, I am purposefully leaving Reyes off this list despite still technically being considered a prospect by OSA)...

1) 1B/DH Cochran - It's probably a name you all know well by now since I was trying to shop him aggressively when I first took over the team. Fast forward two seasons and Cochran has blossomed from a raw prospect into a well developed 20 year old that might not completely look out of place in the majors today in a limited role (RH platoon option) - and its that level of development (2 CON, 5 POW from full potential) that has jumped him to the top of this list. Though the Phantoms are well known for their LHB bias, the best iterations of Stever-led teams (whether it be Omaha or Huntsville) always had at least one 'token' elite RHB to balance the lineup. In the Barnstormer heydays it was Weiss, Jr. or Bowers manning the role, depending on the time period. For the Phantoms, it was recent HOF inductee Boogie Eisenhower. For this iteration of the Phantoms, perhaps that will be Cochran? His profile is certainly exciting with one of the more elite SLG builds in the league (9 CON, 9 GAP, 10 POW). And if he continues on this development trajectory, he could easily see himself in the majors next summer in a limited role and the season after in a starting role.

2) SP Moelling - The disappointing thing about Moelling post-SP coversion was that he was showing a -split vs. LHBs (including a -MOV, which was the truly concerning part). That problem has now been rectified (his splits are even now) and, thus, I'm all-in. At 18 years old, he already throws a 98 MPH fastball and is showing solid signs of filling out his slider+cutter combo (which, as some may know, I consider to be the best combo a pitcher can have). Ratings-wise, he has clear ace potential and his 10 stam means he can be a workhorse, to boot (though probably only come playoff time, as I wouldn't want to rack up PAPs). It's tough not to get excited about this kid, until you realize he's a kid. Thought well developed for an 18 year old (3 STU, 1 MOV, 4 CON off POT), you always have to pump the brakes a bit with someone so young.

3) SP Dooley - Speaking of young and raw, but supremely talented, Dooley matched Moelling stride for stride in every one of those regards. At 17 he is more raw, but his potentials are, incredibly, even better to compensate. He doesn't have the killer repertoire that Moelling has, though (91 MPH sinker + curve/splitter combo), but he oozes intangibles and is already showing a +split vs. RHBs (with no -split vs. LHBs) that project his splits to an otherworldly 8/8/9, 8/9/9 at present. He's clearly a long ways away from the majors, but it's easy to dream about him sitting atop a rotation one day.

4) SP Reyes - Shifting gears from the surefire ace potential, but really raw arms, we have the complete inverse here with Reyes. At 20 years old, this Southpaw is very nearly already developed (1 MOV, 1 CON off POT) and could easily see himself getting a cup of coffee in the majors as early as this season. Build-wise, he is exactly the type of pitcher we love. High MOV, high CON, +split vs. LHB (actually, leaving it at just that is a massive understatement... Reyes has arguably the sexiest +split vs. LHB I've ever seen - projecting, currently, for 7/10/9 against them), pitches and stamina all in the 'green'. He probably won't "wow" anyone once he's in the majors, but we can easily see him solidifying the #3 spot in our rotation for a decade+ to come with steady production. And with his LHB split as insane as it is, might even prove to be comfortable in a #2 spot when it's all said and done.

5) SP Jaramillo - When this guy was available at 19th overall, there wasn't a single discussion about whether he was worth the slot. The only discussion was whether we thought he could "sneak" by into the 2nd or if we needed to take him there to get him. Ultimately, we loved him too much to let him slip by - though a post-draft straw poll seemed to indicate we might not have needed to. Still, it's tough to be upset with ourselves when we look at Jaramillo. For one, he is actually pretty well developed for a 17 year old (better than his contemporary, Dooley) with tremendous intangibles. But, the most important part, is that he is the perfect SP conversion candidate and we believe he'll be nearly the spitting image of Dooley once a cutter is added in the offseason. Prospects flame out - it's a fact of life, but now we can have 2 ace clones in Jaramillo and Dooley to pray for one to develop.

6) SP Archer - If you gave me 27 points and told me to distribute it across a reliever's potential ratings, I am pretty sure my #1 response would be 13/9/5. 12/10/5 might make a case as would 12/9/6, but there is just something about that 13 Stuff (which, as you well know, is the MAX you can get) that would be tough to give up. That isn't how I would build a SP, mind you, as they need more CON, in general, to be successful, imo. For a reliever, though, often coming into an inning already with a RISP, CON isn't as impactful (runner on 3rd with 1 out, who cares if you give up a walk?). You want a guy that isn't going to give up HRs (ie. bend, but don't break) and can get you a strikeout in tough spots (like runner on 3rd with 1 out). Archer is that reliever - and he's very nearly full developed to boot (5 STU off POT). Barring a surge in development, he probably won't get a cup of coffee this year, but I'd consider next year more likely than not (unless he hits a wall). If I could change one thing, it'd be swapping his slider out with a different pitch (RHRP with a +slider aren't my thing), but with ratings as good as his I can live with a -split vs. LHBs (which, thankfully, didn't manifest in his already low CON - a 'red' CON vs. LHB might've been untenable).

7) SP Rubio - The first 6 places on this list were really easy for me to pick, but this one was a bit harder. In the end, I went with Rubio, whom - like Jaramillo - isn't in his "final form" and won't be until he gets a SP conversion (in which I'll probably add a sinker, but I'm not positive yet). A 6/9/7 SP with 3 +pitchers and +stamina is exactly the sort of build I salivate over. He is even showing a +MOV vs. RHP split which would give him a 6/10/7 against that handedness. Although I love that build, I freely admit he still won't be as sexy as the Moelling's, Jaramillo's and Dooley's of the pool, but since they are already here he doesn't *need* to be. If any 2 of those 4 work out, a future rotation of Moelling/Dooley-Jaramillo/Rubio-Reyes is pretty fun to think about.

8) RP Sosa - A raw RP being in the team's top 10 prospect list is usually a sign that the pool is weak; however, Sosa really is just that good. And despite being 'raw', he has actually BUMPED recently instead of lumping, which seems like as good a portend as any for the prospects of his filling out in the future. The 97 MPH fastball and elite sinker don't hurt, either. It'll be a long time until we start thinking about him on the majors even under good development circumstances, but that's okay - he's still worth getting excited about.

9) CF Cleide - After 7 straight pitchers (which was by design since we purposefully focused on filling that side of the prospect ledger in the draft), we finally get to the 2nd bat and it might be a bit of a surprise to some. After all, OSA only gives him a 2 star POT and we still have a slew of prospects with better than that. Hear me out, though. Cleide is good. Real good. Having just turned 21 (2 months ago), he is already nearly fully developed (1 EYE to full POT) and is showing a +split vs. RHB (currently projects for 7/8/4/6/7 against them). He couples that with an OF defense profile that makes me salivate. 10 range, 8 error, 11 arm... incredible. And then he tops off THAT with a near perfect Run/Bunt ratings set. 10 speed, 8 SB ability, 10 baserunning, 10 sac bunt... and maybe most important... 10 bunt for hit. That's right, 10 bunt for hit. You can count on one hand how many players have that rating + blue speed + a bat and defense combo worth putting in the lineup every day. It might be nothing or it might make him a unicorn. And even if its the latter, how many teams have a 7 CON, 10 speed, 10 range CF playing for them everyday? I *know* you can count that list on one hand. Now... more importantly... how many teams would LIKE to have that playing for them everyday? That's a much bigger number, I'm certain. And factor in his development at his age and what it might mean for potential bumps (it's at minimum a pet theory of mine that prospects that are fully developed at tender ages have a better than average chance to bump potential) and I'm starting to wonder if Cleide shouldn't have been higher on this list. If he wasn't currently blocked by one of the league's best CF, he'd be in the majors already for sure. And we're not ruling out the possibility of sliding one of the two to RF in the near future.

10) RF Gonzalez - Another recent draftee, Gonzalez is - as you'd expect - very raw (though better developed for a young 18 year old than most). Every time we look at him, though, we see David Hall with a glove and a better bat... and with a career .866 OPS for the latter it's tough not to get excited about that. Like the other recent draftees on this list, Gonzalez *probably* won't sniff the majors any time soon. But... the same could've been said about Reyes after he was drafted at 18 years old 2 seasons ago, too.