36.4. Potential Rifts in the Clubhouse After Team Falls Short

[agrudez]

Tempers were short at the Phantom's training facility yesterday as the players from the 2036 roster filed in over the course of the day to conduct their exit interviews. While 88 wins in the team's 2nd seasons since Stever took over might've once been seen as a great accomplishment - considering he took over a 64 win squad with a serious dearth of talent - it certainly didn't feel that way on this day. There was plenty of media narrative surrounding the team's unfortunate luck with injuries at key positions (and management's lack of foresight in preparing for said injuries at key positions) throughout the year, but something that flew a bit lower under the radar - at least amongst the reports on the beat - were the various players whom underperformed this season. In the clubhouse; however, it seems as if this topic was explored much more... thoroughly throughout the year. Under the veil of anonymity, various players spoke to the press about some of these tensions.

Anthony Templeman - One player summed it up best when they said, "this season cost some people a starting spot, but for Temp... it might've cost him his career." After compiling 4.7 WAR over the past 3 seasons in varying roles, Templeman had seemingly cemented himself as a bit of a 'glue guy' for the Phantoms. And the fact that his contract still had options - and still does - meant he was a great option to hide in AAA when the 27 man was full to be brought back to the majors at first sign of injury. After posting a staggering -1.1 WAS in 163 ABs in 2036; however, it is difficult to imagine this journeyman regaining management's trust.

Brian Sullivan - "From cornerstone to corner store" is how one player allegedly described Sullivan - via second hand account from our sources. His .741 OPS and 1.8 WAR in 2035 was a steadying influence in 2035. His .599 OPS and 0.1 WAR in 2036 was decidedly not. To make matter worse, he suffered a tough ankle injury and repeats have already circulated that he isn't recovering as well as one might hope from it (ie. bat ratings leaks... -1 CON and -1 POW so far). With a 5.5M arb decision last year threatening to be even more for next, there are rumblings that the team might outright cut him to save the money.

Fernando Navarro - One of the feel good stories of 2035, Navarro posted an .853 OPS and 1.1 WAR as a RH platoon option at SS. In 2036 he was a .534 and -0.8 in the same role. He is still set to make the league minimum in 2036 so we can't imagine the team moving on - yet - but his performance has left lingering doubts as to whether or not his name should be written with ink or pencil for next season's 27 man.

Adam Parrish - Most didn't expect a repeat of 2036 where the journeyman OFer posted 3 WAR, but they also didn't expect him to have his worst season - by far - in 5 years, either. A .725 OPS and 0.6 WAR over 561 ABs has team officials reportedly viewing Parrish as a 4th OFer in 2036 as opposed to a starter. Though it isn't as if Adrian Young with his .734 OPS in 90 ABs lit the world on fire either. It was once a foregone conclusion that the team would move on from Sandcastle after the year, but now? Not so much.

Dusty McPetrie - Various colorful things were said about McPetrie - enough that I could fill this entire article simply with those quotes. The most choice - and poignant - of them; however, was stated simply, "If I walk out onto that field in the 1st and see him on the mound, I met as well ****ing walk right back to the dugout." A 9.2 ERA in 29.1 IP across 8 GS. No wonder he was available in the Rule 5.

Leyli Yelainen - Last, but certainly not least... Yelainen's 2036 campaign, above all, was a gut punch to the organization. 3.4, 2.8, 2.5, 4.1, 0.9 - those are his WARs over the last 5 years now. His second lowest OPS over those 5 years was 100 points better than this season's (.671). His OBP barely crested .300 (.303) after averaging .3625 the 4 years prior. As one source succinctly stated, "He came in here wanting to be a leader. We thought he was a key piece. And he just **** the **** bed, man. **** the **** bed."

[RonCo]

Overall a pretty ugly season for these guys.

[Lane]

gonna do some wondering out loud about Yelanian for a minute because I care about him.

Is it possible that increasing his playing time against LHP lowered his morale due to his poor performance? And that that, in turn, negatively impacted his performance vs RHP?

[agrudez]

I think maybe he just isn't as good as I thought he was and shouldn't have put him into that "elite" category of bats that I don't platoon. Now that I've readjusted my outlook on him, he's probably going to get platooned next year.

What's concerning me most, though, is that many of his rate stats for his v. RHP this season was very much in line with his career thus far. .283 BABIP in 2036 vs. .289 career. .269 K/AB in 2036 vs. .257 career. .126 BB/AB in 2036 vs. .134 career. .0321 HR/AB in 2036 vs. .0397 career. Nothing jumps out as the 'gotcha' - it's just in every category he was slightly worse in 2036 than for his career. Maybe the aggregation of everything reverting slightly back to mean manifests in a big improvement.

[RonCo]

Anything's possible. All I can say for sure is that it seems obvious he'll never be able to hit LHP.

[Lane]

I think maybe he just isn't as good as I thought he was and shouldn't have put him into that "elite" category of bats that I don't platoon. Now that I've readjusted my outlook on him, he's probably going to get platooned next year.

I'm clearly more open to platoons than you, and I'm not sure if he was this bad v LHP before I traded him, but 5/5/4/5/5 is uuuuugly.

[Lane]

What's concerning me most, though, is that many of his rate stats for his v. RHP this season was very much in line with his career thus far. .283 BABIP in 2036 vs. .289 career. .269 K/AB in 2036 vs. .257 career. .126 BB/AB in 2036 vs. .134 career. .0321 HR/AB in 2036 vs. .0397 career. Nothing jumps out as the 'gotcha' - it's just in every category he was slightly worse in 2036 than for his career. Maybe the aggregation of everything reverting slightly back to mean manifests in a big improvement.

Very weird.

Right now I'm trying to find out why JJ McQuade's BABIP is 20 points lower in LBC than it was in YS or BOI. Baseball!

[RonCo]

I tried to keep McQuade's appearances vs. RHP to a minimum.

[Lane]

I tried to keep McQuade's appearances vs. RHP to a minimum.

Interesting.

[RonCo]

He can hit RHP okay on the whole, but he's going to suffer against the best of them. Plus he's getting old enough that you do wonder about BABIP dropping off a little.

[agrudez]

I'm clearly more open to platoons than you, and I'm not sure if he was this bad v LHP before I traded him, but 5/5/4/5/5 is uuuuugly.

I love platoons. Getting an aggregate .800 OPS in RF out of 2 guys making 4M combined is terrific.

Where I differ from popular opinion, though, is when it comes to platooning the truly 'elite' LHBs. Let's take something like a .65 OPS vs. LHP and .85 vs. RHP (for a ~.8 OPS overall) as an example (clearly not elite, in my estimation... probably not too far off where Yelainen should've ended up, though). Using my own SP as a gauge, my staff averaged 6.08 IP/GS so let's round that down to 6 IP. Since Yelainen would be at the top of the lineup, let's assume he sees the starter 3 times in those 6 IP (as my 3-hole hitter, that'd be >=21, <=30 batters faced by the SP.... at 21 batters faced that would be 18 outs, 3 non-outs and at 30 batters faced that would be 18 outs and 12 non-outs... presumably the pitcher would have been yanked already in that original scenario). That leaves 3 IP left and on average 1.5 more times to the plate.

[(3 * .65) + (1.5 * .85)] / 4.5 = 0.72. So, to platoon a batter with .65/.85 splits, you need to replace him with someone that will feasibly do better than .72 OPS in that same game over the course of a season's worth of those games. Let's say they have a .725 OPS against LHP (+.75 over the LHB) to see what their vs. RHP split could dip to and still be viable. [(3 * .75) + (1.5 * X)] / 4.5 = 0.72 => [(0.72 * 4.5) - (3 * .725)] / 1.5 = X => X = 0.71. With a 2:1 ratio of RH:LH... (.725 * 2 + .71 * 1) / 3 = .72. So in this example you'd need a .72 OPS RHB to equate with a .8 OPS LHB in a game against a LHSP all while maintaining equitable defense - just to break even.

It's certainly possible to carry a RHB with a good glove that can pull a >.72 OPS on your bench as a platoon at *some* positions, but not all. There are cap and roster limit concerns, after all. So, I just feel you need to be judicial about *where* you pick your platoon battles is all. I'd much rather platoon a Brian Sullivan than a Luis Barrera - if given the choice.

[RonCo]

Of course everything depends on who you can pair a platoon with. But I'll not that your calculation on Yelainen's effective OPS vs. LHP seems to rely upon the reliever being right handed. If 30% of those AB are against LHP, that too will reduce the .720 further. That said, Yelainen's ratings vs. LHP are uglier than many. His .550 OPS vs. LHP this year may not be particularly off.

[RonCo]

I'll note that the four RHB that I hit primarily against LHP registered the following OPS splits:

Garcia: .850/.753 (LHP/RHP) << 389 PA
Allen: .822/.860 (LHP/RHP) << 196 PA
Camacho: .953/.585 (LHP/RHP) << 245 PA
Ginn: .663/.527 (LHP/RHP) << 200PA

I can't say what other guys running big platoon pairs did, but I'll take most of thoe numbers over many elite LHB if their splits are horrid.

[agrudez]

But I'll not that your calculation on Yelainen's effective OPS vs. LHP seems to rely upon the reliever being right handed. If 30% of those AB are against LHP, that too will reduce the .720 further.

That's right. I had a sinking feeling I was forgetting something. At any rate, the point still stands - just the numbers are a little off.

[RonCo]

It drops your calculated break even point to .697 if I'm right.

Using the same calculations,a RHB with .725/.625 OPS splits will just barely outperform the .650/.850 example.

The league average OPS is something like .751.

[RonCo]

To your point on pair-mates, using your example of the .850/.650 LHB who OPS's .697 vs. LHB, and my three YS9 RHB examples:

Garcia: .827
Allen: .831
Camacho: .867
Ginn: .631

If you have to platoon your example with Ginn, you hit your lefty. But if you can get Garcia, Allen, or Camacho into the lineup, you're better off by a pretty wide margin.