35.25. We'll Know What We Are After June

[agrudez]

Sitting at 28-27 at the start of June feels pretty good. Sitting with a top 6 PYTH in the conference (just 2.5 games behind the best in Phoenix) and only 1 game behind the best in our division (New Orleans) feels even better. What makes us hopeful; however, is that we've played an appreciably larger number of games on the road (34) than at home (21) - a total of 13 more, to be precise (~25% of our schedule to date). We also, of course, are a much better team at home than away. That's a true statement for just about everyone (there always seemed like something in the code that made you better at home than on the road), but considerably more so in Huntsville where we so meticulously build our roster to compliment our stadium. Even in my best case end state of our roster (some years down the road), we would expect a large delta (something like .55 away vs. .7 at home) in home/road splits. And, thus far, 2035 is no exception - .441 on the road vs. .619 at home.

So... what does that have to do with June? Well, it's because that is when our home/road splits correction is going to kick in. In June we are scheduled for just 7 road games compared to a staggering 21 home games (1 of which has already been played - so 20 left) which would completely even out our splits at 41 apiece by the start of July. Just based on our current winning percentages for home v. away, that would project us to go 16-12 on the month - and 44-38 on the year. That would put us firmly in the driver's seat for a wildcard at the halfway point of the season and have us feeling pretty good. I suppose we could entertain the idea that we outplay our current projections and feel even better, but I'm okay labeling status quo as the "optimistic" scenario. The pessimistic one is that we play some good teams in June (5 above .500 and only 3 below) and could maybe see a downtick in our winning percentage at home from May+June. If we finish, for example, 13-15... suddenly we're at 41-41 with neutral home/road games played splits at the halfway mark and not feeling nearly as good about a wildcard (even if we still are in the hunt) - and that's just a 3 game swing (queue clichés like 'baseball is a game of inches' here).

And that's where we're at. Looking at June with optimism, but also a healthy dose of apprehension. This one month - more than any other - could define the Phantoms' 2035 season.

[niles08]

Were in essentially in the same boat. On the season we are a crazy 15-4 at home(79%), and a horrible 11-26(30%) on the road.

However not nearly as many at home in June as you do. We have 16 at home in June and 11 on the road. July it is 18-8 differential so after June/July it will be basically even again but I will have to wait the next 2 months to see how things play out.