35.22. Internal Bullpen Fixes

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35.22. Internal Bullpen Fixes

Post by agrudez » Wed Jul 04, 2018 9:07 am

As highlighted a couple sims ago, the team's primary struggles this season has been the bullpen. As of this writing, we are 2nd in the JL in runs scored, 3rd in starter ERA and... 11th in bullpen ERA. In an era where analysts have begun to wonder whether or not "chasing" a SP is any longer a net-benefit (since bullpens have gotten so good of late), the Phantoms' relievers have combined for an ERA .17 points higher than their starters - providing the clear exception to the new rule. We already discussed Cantu's struggles (though since that last article he has gone 5.1 IP with 4K, 3BB, 3H and 0 ER) to start the year, though we still hold out hope for him turning a corner - eventually. Soranzo (4.91 ERA in 14.2 IP) and Contreras (5.4 ERA in 5 IP) haven't been helping much either - that's now 3 spots we'd really like to hide out of a 6 man bullpen... which is less than ideal. Plus, we have a sinking fear that the bubble is going to burst on McPetrie (1.76 ERA in 15.1 IP) any day now, too.

Luckily, though, we have a bit of a cavalry coming to help out Gutierrez and Baez. Firstly, the acquisition of Habermas not only upgraded our #5 slot in the rotation, but it also allowed Sandoval (whom had been pressed into rotation action due to the regression of Quintana) to slide back into the 'pen - where he posted a 3.41 FIP last season. Additionally, we *finally* got - arguably our best reliever ratings wise - Sanchez back from the DL (whom was supposed to be back from injury at the beginning of May, but has been an "unknown" return time for nearly a whole month) as well. We can't help but be cautious with the latter after seeing how rusty Cantu was coming in after missing most of ST, but still, we can't help but be excited about what he can provide.

So, that leaves us with the following...

Baez
Sanchez
Gutierrez
Sandoval

Doing the heavy lifting in the 'pen. None have less than 7 MOV vs. LHB (very important to our park) and all have at least one 'blue' rating and no 'yellow' rating. We still lack a true stud, but that seems on paper to be a very solid unit - and its 50/50 LH/RH which could give our manager options late game (not that I hold my breath for OOTP AI).

Cantu
McPetrie
Contreras

In the lesser roles. If Cantu can keep giving us confidence that the worst is behind him (like he has over the last 5.1 IP), we would love to move him up with the other guys and just throw those 5 in every inning we can. For now, though, he's going to hang out in long relief - hopefully soaking more innings than McPetrie. Contreras will stay as the rarely used LOOGY (on pace for ~15 IP this year) if for no other reason than he is out of options.
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Re: 35.22. Internal Bullpen Fixes

Post by RonCo » Wed Jul 04, 2018 9:14 am

AS you can probably tell from some of my TNs, I think there are a lot of guys who underrate the bullpen's value.
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Re: 35.22. Internal Bullpen Fixes

Post by agrudez » Wed Jul 04, 2018 9:40 am

When I can get studs it's great (I recognize the Sanderson+Garza combo in the old Phantoms bullpen was a huge reason for our success in those years - they were lights out and combined for something like 225 IP a year), but I firmly believe the best reliever is only as important as a good mid-rotation starter on an individual basis. They just don't - generally - pitch often enough and/or in important enough situations (either because of OOTP AI incompetence or because they have closer as a desired role and cry and moan if you try to give out non-traditional bullpen roles to maximize their value). That is to say, that if you don't already have a good mid-rotation, then an elite bullpen isn't going to bail you out - and I'd rather trade the latter for the former when I'm team building in that situation.

For example, Muirhead would be awesome in the 'pen right now, but Nicto is on pace for ~3 WAR and has almost a 60% QS rate last I checked in-game (the HTML Reports aren't up to date yet) so I make that trade 100 out of 100 times since my options instead would've been pretty bad. If Nicto was going to be my #5 SP because my rotation was already good then maybe I don't make that trade.

So... I guess what I'm saying is I place them last in terms of order of operations for ground up team building (hitting > starting pitching > bullpen), but not necessarily last in terms of importance to winning. I *think* we have already completed the first step of going from awful to relevant - which will allow us to try and take the next step this upcoming offseason from relevant to good. And that'll be when we start trying to find some higher end talent for the 'pen.
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Re: 35.22. Internal Bullpen Fixes

Post by Ted » Wed Jul 04, 2018 2:11 pm

You're team is doing a really good job of proving a bunch of us wrong. I still don't entirely believe it, but you've gone a long way towards demonstrating (again) that having a philosophy and sticking to it is just better than accumulating talent for talent's sake alone.
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Re: 35.22. Internal Bullpen Fixes

Post by RonCo » Wed Jul 04, 2018 2:36 pm

Justin's preview projected Huntsville at 81 wins. Right now the team's one game over .500, but has played a bunch of games away.

Kyle had the advantage of getting in just before the team's finances went totally south. That said, yes, having a philosophy and driving it home is a major part of any successful program.
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Re: 35.22. Internal Bullpen Fixes

Post by agrudez » Wed Jul 04, 2018 2:44 pm

I'd prefer to say that we're 5 games above .500 in PYTH with 13 more road games than home games played thus far (62% of games played thus far being away) - and a team that clearly plays better on the home than road (62% winning pct at home vs. 44% on the road) for obvious reasons.
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Re: 35.22. Internal Bullpen Fixes

Post by usnspecialist » Wed Jul 04, 2018 2:58 pm

agrudez wrote:I'd prefer to say that we're 5 games above .500 in PYTH with 13 more road games than home games played thus far (62% of games played thus far being away) - and a team that clearly plays better on the home than road (62% winning pct at home vs. 44% on the road) for obvious reasons.
you could also say that you are 12-15 vs winning teams and and 16-12 vs teams with losing records, and with 9 of your next 12 against winning teams (and potentially more since the other 3 are against Louisville who is currently 1 game under), you might be in for a bumpy road coming up. May was kind to you schedule wise (17 games against losing teams, only 11 against winning teams), and while you took advantage of that as you should, it may not be an indicator of things to come.
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Re: 35.22. Internal Bullpen Fixes

Post by RonCo » Wed Jul 04, 2018 3:34 pm

The beauty of this game is that the best team doesn't win all that often, really. So it takes a lot of games to figure out what's real and what isn't.

One advantage the I don't think many people took into account is that fact that we're playing balanced schedules this season, so Huntsville will get to play more ... ahem ... crappy teams than they would have any other year. That's probably good for 2-4 more wins than anyone would have projected in the old frame of reference.
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Re: 35.22. Internal Bullpen Fixes

Post by agrudez » Wed Jul 04, 2018 4:05 pm

Yeah, the game odds of a 90 win team vs. an 80 win team are so negligible its not really worth noting, imo. I think home/road splits are a more reliable predictor than opponent record.
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Re: 35.22. Internal Bullpen Fixes

Post by Ted » Wed Jul 04, 2018 4:13 pm

agrudez wrote:Yeah, the game odds of a 90 win team vs. an 80 win team are so negligible its not really worth noting, imo. I think home/road splits are a more reliable predictor than opponent record.
:plus1: But only if you have a definite park advantage at home. FWIW, I started out hot as crap and played some 20 out of my first 30 games on the road. I DO theoretically have a home park advantage with all my left handed power bats and new child sized right field wall configuration, and I've been even hotter now that I'm playing a bunch of home games.
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Re: 35.22. Internal Bullpen Fixes

Post by usnspecialist » Wed Jul 04, 2018 4:16 pm

Ted wrote:
agrudez wrote:Yeah, the game odds of a 90 win team vs. an 80 win team are so negligible its not really worth noting, imo. I think home/road splits are a more reliable predictor than opponent record.
:plus1: But only if you have a definite park advantage at home. FWIW, I started out hot as crap and played some 20 out of my first 30 games on the road. I DO theoretically have a home park advantage with all my left handed power bats and new child sized right field wall configuration, and I've been even hotter now that I'm playing a bunch of home games.
trust me, I have noticed this development and I am not happy about it one bit... :furious:
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Re: 35.22. Internal Bullpen Fixes

Post by RonCo » Wed Jul 04, 2018 4:21 pm

There is definitely a home team advantage that goes deeper than park. I'm not really sure it's worth more than the difference between an 80 and a 90 win opponent. But it's there.
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Re: 35.22. Internal Bullpen Fixes

Post by RonCo » Wed Jul 04, 2018 4:21 pm

Actually, it's probably about the same.
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Re: 35.22. Internal Bullpen Fixes

Post by niles08 » Thu Jul 05, 2018 12:20 pm

RonCo wrote:The beauty of this game is that the best team doesn't win all that often, really. So it takes a lot of games to figure out what's real and what isn't.

One advantage the I don't think many people took into account is that fact that we're playing balanced schedules this season, so Huntsville will get to play more ... ahem ... crappy teams than they would have any other year. That's probably good for 2-4 more wins than anyone would have projected in the old frame of reference.
I didn't even think of this. I won't have to be beaten up by the Heartland so often as I had been in years past with Louisville & YS9 taking me to town.
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