35.20. Re-evaluating the Prospect Pool Post-Draft

[agrudez]

It's been nearly a calendar year (in-game) since we internally ranked our prospects and an hour since we re-capped the draft so what better time for round 2 than the present? I mean... it's not like our ML team is 1 game behind the best team in the JL Southeast in pyth at the quarter pole of the season or anything - what else is there to write about?

1) CF Tim Torres
Starting the list off with anyone else was never in question. He ranked 7th in my last ranking, but this kid just keeps on bumping - both offensively and defensively - and has gone from a pretty good corner OF prospect to a superb CF prospect in less than a calendar year. And the best part might be that he is still only 20 years old (a young 20, at that, having turned just 3 months ago) and fully developed - which means he might not even be done. At this point we're starting to feel dirty keeping him in AAA, but Hall, Parrish and Sandcastle all have 1 WAR or better thus far this season so there is literally nowhere to play the kid. Luckily for me, his morale is still normal for now - here's hoping he keeps being upbeat about his predicament as he heats up in AAA (1.076 OPS thus far in May).

2) 1B Tommy Cochrane
Does putting a RHB this high on my list make me cringe? Yes. Would I love to flip him for a LHB equivalent? Yes. Do I see him being a valuable contributor in Huntsville if I keep him? Of course. My lineups always need at least one or two token RHBs/SHBs to help balance things a bit and Cochrane has the profile to be a rather imposing figure in the lineup under that role. For a little while he was showing a -split vs. RHP that had me concerned, but he's straightened that out and is now normal on that side with a +split vs. LHP instead. At 18 we are happy with his development thus far and excited to see it continue.

3) SP Cisco Chavez
If this kid makes the majors, he could go down as an all-timer as far as SP converts go (considering the list of successes isn't an absurdly long one). He was a victim of the MOV purge and his CON POT just lumped a point, but he is also showing a +STU vs. RHP and his velocity+repertoire combo is simply off the charts. At 21 his MOV and CON are developed and he is just working on his STU so he could be a quick riser through the system once that comes together.

4) 3B Michael Best
When I look at this kid, it is really, *really* tough not to see the Wilfer comparison. His bat's POT is basically a Wilfer clone (swapping -2 EYE for +1 POW and +1 GAP), neither has a split (though Best is a RHB while Wilfer is a SHB) and they both play a solid infield. Best will never have the 2B career Wilfer had early, but he'll be a better 3B than Dave Dave is now. If we can get a career .782 OPS (Wilfer's current) with plus defense we'll be ecstatic - and at 20 years old Best is *almost* at full dev... just in time for the veteran Wilfer's contract to be up (a PO next season and free after that). Funny how that works out sometimes.

5) SP Mutsuhito Imai
At 19, Imai has a ways to go with his repertoire (both his 2nd and 3rd pitch are very raw), but he already has an electric fastball (98 MPH, 9 rated) and great development (other than STU). He also has a history of bumping (+2 STU POT since he came into the league) which correlates great with his high level of development at a young age for more potential bumps in the future.

6) RP Santiago Diaz
There is a lot to like about this kid. Firstly, he has one of those wonderfully eclectic splits - even vs. LHB as a RHP with a +CON and -STU split vs. RHBs. I guess the circle change is doing that? I'll have to add that to my mental list of favorite pitches. As of now, at age 18, his development is tremendous and we have him marked down as a potential quick riser that projects to have a prominent bullpen role in the majors... UNLEEEESSSSS... we make him a SP. I don't know, maybe it's the success with Chavez clouding my judgement, but Diaz checks all of the necessary (by the rules) boxes for a SP conversion (8 stam, only 2 pitches, no ML experience) and some of the mechanical ones as well (ie. the ones that, I believe, are necessary for him to have a chance at being successful). I seriously can't stop thinking about what he might look like with a cutter. Does that split get even funner? Maybe that bumps his MOV to an '8' as his vs. RHB stays flat and his LHB goes +? At worst case, he'd end up somewhere around 9/7/5 which would put him in the same tier as Imai so it'd all be on how well his 3rd pitch comes in. Chavez's sinker came in as a 6... maybe I'm punch drunk from that.

7) RP Rodolfo Medina
I am normally pretty hard on RHPs with great sliders (especially relievers), but I forgive them when it manifests as a +split vs. RHB instead of a -split vs. LHB. It remains to be seen if that dichotomy will hold up for Medina as he finishes developing his STU, but at this point at least his MOV/CON are locked in (ie. the fear of his MOV vs. LHB going down to an unplayable 5 - for my park - are passed). So, we like him - despite himself - and he's really well developed at just 19 years old.

8) OF Luis Reyes
You can take this ranking one of two ways. 1) It's depressing how light the 2035 draft was at the top... that the #7 overall pick barely cracks my top 10. 2) It's encouraging how deep my pool is that the #7 overall pick barely cracks my top 10. If I'm being honest, I have a general mix of both feelings. Would I have loved to get someone like a LH'd Cochrane in this spot to slot in as my new #2 prospect? Of course... and I have waking nightmares of Ohayashi slipping through my grasp due to a **** autopick. That said, I like Reyes - and hopefully the quality prospects that end up being lower than him on this list show him that.

9) RP Juan Alfonzo
I'll be honest, I was pretty close to ranking Alfonzo above Medina - as crazy as that may sound (considering OOTP gives the latter a full star better). His +split vs. LHB that is showing is just so enticing - currently projecting for 10/8/7 - and he doesn't even have a -split vs. RHB to "balance" it out. He's also very close to developed at 21 years old and was one of the rare "good ones" that kept his MOV in the v19 culling.

10) CF Raul Gasco
It's funny... when I first traded for Gasco I was *so* excited. "That's my CF of the future", I said. And at the time he was... I didn't have anyone that looked like someone I'd happily trot out into CF down the line. Gasco had flaws, sure, but he was a LHB with serious pop potential (ie. perfect for my stadium), a tremendous glove and blazing speed - the tools were there... and still are. But when my CF situation suddenly became Sandcastle blocking Torres with Mendez, Crisci, Shacklady and Tobias (none of whom you'll see on this list) jockeying for position with Gasco to be that "runner up" it starts to feel like he might get lost in the shuffle - as crazy as that might sound.

11) RP Lorenzo Solis
Hey, wait a minute... another young reliever with good stamina, at least one blue pitch, solid velocity (94 MPH at 18 years old), great STU and good MOV? I'm smelling another SP convert. He'd look pretty good with a sinker in that arsenal if it works out - don't you think? Can never have enough lottery tickets.

12) OF Sadaharu Oh III
A pretty precipitous fall for Oh from our last rankings - particularly since he hasn't lost any talent in the interim. It's just that we've gotten so much better in the farm since that ranking - in particular in the OF. We still love his bat (and hate his defense).... and can't help but see a parallel to David Hall (whom has a .924 OPS thus far this season in LHB heaven) in his game which excites us. I just wish that range come up a little... though at just 19 years old there is clearly time - we'll be watching.

13) RP Mauricio Graete
I wish his splits were reversed (currently projecting for 9/6/5 vs. LHB and 9/7/6 vs. RHB), but he still projects to be a solid ML reliever and at just 21 with only 1 point of dev left to go he might not stop there.

14) SS Fernando Navarro
That infield glove could excite anyone, right? And 10/10/10 running, too. He even has some solid OF ratings if you wanted to try to make a super sub. That's the good. The bad is he is a RHB and, while showing a great +split vs. LHP, is entirely underwhelming offensively against RHP. Still, even now he looks like an awesome bench piece and even a solid platoon option at 2 of the 3 most important defensive positions. He's also only 20 years old and fully developed... so fingers crossed!

15) RP Luis Rodriguez
Is he going to blow your socks off? Nah, but he's #15 so that's okay. He currently projects to be a 9/7/7 against LHP as a LOOGY - who doesn't need that in their 'pen?