35.18. An Obvious Hole in the Early Goings

[agrudez]

As of May 5th, the Phantoms have scored the 3rd most runs in the JL and have the 4th best ERA... and yet are only .500 (at 15-15). That certainly doesn't seem to be good returns on that run differential - and their PYTH (17-13) doesn't disagree. But still, surely there is *something* else causing this discrepancy other than "bad luck", right?

Bullpen ERA 4.46 - 11th in JL

Oh, yeah... how could I forget about that? All told we have had 5 blown saves already this year (2 from Soranzo, 2 from Cantu and 1 from Baez) in a total of 10 save opportunities - yike! In case you don't want to do the math, that is only a 50% conversion rate on save opportunities. For reference, of the other contenders in our division, Jacksonville (7th in bullpen ERA) is 6/9 (66%) in save opportunities, New Orleans (9th in bullpen ERA) is 15/18 (83.3%) and Louisville (3rd in bullpen ERA) is 7/11 (63%). At this point, with how this stat correlates with team records thus far (with NO leading the pack and HSV trailing just behind JAC and LOU) it might not be hyperbole to highlight it as one of the more prevalent deciding factors of the young season thus far in the JL Southeast.

In Huntsville, the bullpen struggles don't *entirely* come as a shock (though I certainly wouldn't have guessed being this bad thus far) seeing as we're a piecemeal unit of mostly FA signees - after trading our "big" relievers for (in our minds) more valuable assets since taking over. And it's not as if we haven't had solid production from a large portion of the staff (in fact, we have 5 relievers with a 2.65 ERA or lower thus far). So... what the heck is going on?

David Cantu: 10.1 IP, 18 ER

Woof. Though, perhaps that shouldn't be terribly unexpected either. After surprisingly sitting on the FA market the entire offseason, Cantu finally signed with the Phantoms halfway through spring training - meaning he didn't have nearly as much time to knock off the offseason rust as the rest of his 'pen contemporaries. We had anticipated "easing" him in (like with a long relief role), but the injury to Santana, regression of Quintana (which pushed Sandoval to the rotation) and presence of Rule 5 stash McPetrie meant that Cantu was pressed into full action right away - and, clearly, he simply wasn't ready.

So... what to do? At this point, Cantu's horrendous April is already done and in the books - we can't change it. He still projects to be one of the better - if not the best - reliever in our 'pen when healthy, so we can't give up on him based on a performance he can't possibly repeat. For now - thanks in large part to McPetrie being a revelation thus far - David will slide back to the long relief role he was originally slated for - a swap that will put extra pressure on Soranzo, Baez and Gutierrez - particularly until Santana returns in mid-May. Hopefully they can hold up, but if not... well... I suppose it can't get much worse, right?

[RonCo]

Cantu should be fine eventually, of course. Interesting break down.