35.15. One Step Back For Two Steps Forward?

[agrudez]

After documenting their roster crunch earlier in the week - which led to the sad conclusion that Charles and Tong both were likely to be victims of the option game sent down to AAA to start the season - Huntsville hit the trade market to attempt to alleviate their situation. In the end they managed it... but at what cost?

Outgoing is Luis Soto and Juan Cano - two pitchers that projected to have prominent roles for the Phantoms in 2035. The 35 year old Soto fully returned from his injury still in tact and has always been a bankable mid to high 3 FIP when healthy. Cano, while struggling mightily in his rookie season, projects to be an elite closer once fully developed (still needing 4 stuff). So... why did the team let them go? Is Charles+Tong an equivalent "trade" (in terms of whom starts the season on the ML squad) for Soto+Cano? Well... maybe... if you squint. The Phantoms already have a deep, deep bullpen thanks to copious veteran FA signings and while Cano projects to be a stud in the future, he wasn't quite there yet for 2035 so his role in the 'pen was likely to be diminished. In addition, in terms of long range outlook, Cano's -split vs. LHB due to his slider was concerning for management relative to their LHB paradise stadium. And, in the rotation, with Charles going down along with Tong, that meant that House was destined for the #5 SP slot. So, with so many moving parts, the "deal" in terms of roster management really becomes:

Rotation - Soto+House
Bullpen - Cano

to

Rotation - Tong+Charles
Bullpen - Baez

And suddenly the effects for 2035 don't seem so bad. Maybe Tong can't perform as well as Soto, but Charles no doubt outperforms House... and Baez and Cano looks sneakily like an even swap to my eye - barring some short term development from Cano. Believe it or not, Huntsville actually has too many good players (and not enough great ones... but that's a different topic, I suppose) and so a deal like this makes a ton of sense for them. A potential side benefit is further cap space opening up from Soto being dealt to potentially be used on the trade market in the future, too - "optionality".

So, what did Huntsville get in return? Well, first off... probably not enough if I'm being honest, but that's the price you pay when dealing from a position of 'weakness' (ie. due to the roster crunch situation - that I kind of regret publicizing in a team news in retrospect... I think they call that "stepping in it"). But, still, I like what we got: Best, Imai, Hernandez, Crisci and Teive. Best and Imai are clearly the "cream" of this quantity over quality crop with solid, but unspectacular starting 3B and mid-rotation SP potential. In terms of team fit, Best makes a ton of sense as a near future replacement for Wilfer as well - who has a player option for next season. In Imai, he meets the pre-requisite for a pitcher in Huntsville (7 MOV or above) and has great STU to make up for shoddy CON. He has also bumped STU POT twice since entering the league which leaves some hope for more. Hernandez is fully developed already at the tender age of 20, so the hope is some bumps from him as well - despite no history thus far of it - but even as-is he seems like a potential near term replacement/upgrade over Guerrero on the strong side of my catcher platoon... assuming we can figure out why the heck an 8 arm and 6 ability translates to a 3 overall at C despite having played tons of games there in his MIL career. And lastly (and definitely least) are Crisci and Teive. They are LH'd with great defensive profiles so it probably shouldn't be much surprise that I was interested in them; however, even as-is I can't currently project them as great ML players at their POT. Luckily, they both have a history of bumps (+3 POW, +1 EYE for Crisci and +3 EYE for Teive) so clearly that is our hope with them - to see that continue. As far as "lottery tickets" go... they are kind of exactly what I look for.