Hawks Nest, v27.3 - Checking the Locks: Catcher

[trmmilwwi]

CATCHER

SURE FIRE LOCKS: Elroy Hinson

HOPEFULS: Juan Jose Torres

Analysis:

Hinson just finished up his 4th full season in Halifax since being acquired from Vancouver in late 2022 and has been remarkably consistent. Looking at the stats since he was acquired you can basically count on above average offense and slightly below average defense and put it in the bank. He hits slightly above .300, will have 12-18 HR’s, draw about 60 walks, strikeout about 60 times and commit exactly 12 errors per a year. He is the most consistent player on the team and is one of the best. At 27 he is entering his prime and has not shown any signs of slowing down. Set it and forget it.

Torres was the defensive replacement every so often to keep Hinson fresh. He has given the Hawks a plus WAR each season as Hinson’s backup and the team is content to keep that rotation going. Pending any major catastrophes or pickups Torres will likely start the season on the ML roster. I would expect about 25-30 games this season and a stat line near .255/3/13. He’s a role player that knows his spot on the team. At $1M he may be high priced.

[Lane]

A sure-fire lock indeed. This guy good.

[bschr682]

I feel like I was completely right about Hinson. This might sound crazy but I think he is a sneaky terrible player for a franchise.

Catchers play fewer games and are far more prone to being tired and taking a performance hit due to that. Last year he only played in 143 games and he didn't suffer any injury that required him to sit. If he were to get knicked up his games played would plummet even further. And of the games he did play in how many were played while being fairly tired and taking a bit of a performance hit? More than a handful for sure.
He is clearly one of the best rated catchers and will demand to be paid like the best player at his position so he very quickly became a salary cap anchor. 110 mil salary cap and you paid something like 15% of that to Hinson who is essentially not a full time player even when healthy.
We all don't really know what to make of catcher defense so he doesn't really have that going for him either and catchers are notoriously horrendous on the base paths as well.

His numbers are great but not elite but he will always demand elite money. I remain convinced that you do NOT want a top 3 catcher in OOTP.

[Lane]

Oh man, that's quite an argument. I would say I'd take an elite player at any position even if they only play 140 games.

Sure it might not be ideal to be paying elite $$ for someone who plays 140 games but I think it's over thinking it a bit to avoid a clearly elite player for this reason. At any given time a successful team should have a combination of cost controlled and FA players to balance things out.

Call me next time you have an elite C prosect


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[trmmilwwi]

Brett, you certainly have a valid argument. With catcher you need to have another body ready on the roster.. So I typically count my platoon when figuring out future planning. I have had some success with the weak side of the catcher platoon playing other positions as well to get more mileage out of that spot. Another interesting question is whether you can have a star catcher play even less but get more WAR (or more value wherever you may be looking for it) and then have the weak side platoon provide that additional WAR. You may be underestimating a guy like Hinson but I see your point.

[bschr682]

Oh man, that's quite an argument. I would say I'd take an elite player at any position even if they only play 140 games.

Sure it might not be ideal to be paying elite $$ for someone who plays 140 games but I think it's over thinking it a bit to avoid a clearly elite player for this reason. At any given time a successful team should have a combination of cost controlled and FA players to balance things out.

Call me next time you have an elite C prosect


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To clarify im talking salary capped league once the guy is out of his league minimum stage. After 4 or 5 years id gladly trade away an elite catcher.

And in the long term I do not think it is overthinking at all. You give me a guy that's 90% of Hinson but i can play him every single day? Id do that 100 times out of 100. I only drafted Hinson because I felt I had to. He was so far and away better than any other bat that was there at the time. My original plan was to hang onto him until arby and then try to make Vegas pay a kings ransom for him but it didn't work out that way.

I suppose it would be a bit different if our league ran 7 day sims. You could then in theory use the 7 day lineup to max effect and move Hinson into the DH spot now and then to get him rest while still playing him more games.

[Lane]

I suppose it would be a bit different if our league ran 7 day sims. You could then in theory use the 7 day lineup to max effect and move Hinson into the DH spot now and then to get him rest while still playing him more games.

Couldn't you do this anyway with the way we sim? Set him to start at DH every 5 or 6 games?



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[trmmilwwi]

You give me a guy that's 90% of Hinson but i can play him every single day? Id do that 100 times out of 100.

Even if he plays 1B or RF?

[RonCo]

The root of the question to me is based on finances. At $16M+ he's spendy. Last year a couple guys made more than he will, but right now he's more expensive than any other catcher by $3M. At 4.5-6 WAR (assuming he's healthy), the $16M+ is not terrible ... At 4.5 WAR he's overpaid, and 6 WAR he's probably about right-paid. One notes that he and Garcia were about a full WAR better than any other catcher, so the gap from "elite" to "very good" was not inconsiderable ... though that's past performance, not necessarily projection.

Brett's argument is valid in that you know going in that you're going to need to find another guy to play 20-30 games at catcher, so if you're going to spend your $16M on and can get someone elite at another position, you might be better served to do that. On the other hand, we often go drop big buck on elite players who only see the field every 5 days, so what do I know?

[Lane]

I can't check salaries at the moment, but I imagine we pay DH only guys that kind of cash sometimes...


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[RonCo]

Atlantic City's Antonio Sanchez is making $18.6M. But to Brett's point, he played 162 games last year. He also only dropped 4 WAR on the league for that cash--so was probably overpaid considerably. My rule of thumb around here (new as I am) is that it seems like $2.5-$3M/WAR is a pretty reasonable barometer for whether you got value for the cash you pay for an elite player.

[bschr682]

Atlantic City's Antonio Sanchez is making $18.6M. But to Brett's point, he played 162 games last year. He also only dropped 4 WAR on the league for that cash--so was probably overpaid considerably. My rule of thumb around here (new as I am) is that it seems like $2.5-$3M/WAR is a pretty reasonable barometer for whether you got value for the cash you pay for an elite player.

Id take Sanchez over Hinson in a heartbeat.

edit- All my arguments must be taken with a large grain of salt. I know I shouldn't but I tend to think about these things in terms of actual baseball having played it my entire life at every level short of professional. Most of my reasonings probably aren't modeled in OOTP but I still try to play the game that way anyway. Like the 2B range thing. In actual baseball, that gets you fired if you play a guy like Lawson or Hawk there. It would be a total disaster. In OOTP, I guess maybe you can get away with it? If MLB had a salary cap, Hinson isn't making 16 mil. That would kill you. In OOTP, maybe you can get away with it?

[RonCo]

Atlantic City's Antonio Sanchez is making $18.6M. But to Brett's point, he played 162 games last year. He also only dropped 4 WAR on the league for that cash--so was probably overpaid considerably. My rule of thumb around here (new as I am) is that it seems like $2.5-$3M/WAR is a pretty reasonable barometer for whether you got value for the cash you pay for an elite player.

Id take Sanchez over Hinson in a heartbeat.

edit- All my arguments must be taken with a large grain of salt. I know I shouldn't but I tend to think about these things in terms of actual baseball having played it my entire life at every level short of professional. Most of my reasonings probably aren't modeled in OOTP but I still try to play the game that way anyway. Like the 2B range thing. In actual baseball, that gets you fired if you play a guy like Lawson or Hawk there. It would be a total disaster. In OOTP, I guess maybe you can get away with it? If MLB had a salary cap, Hinson isn't making 16 mil. That would kill you. In OOTP, maybe you can get away with it?

It's a fair call. The salary cap does change things. Do you take Mike Piazza over Sammy Sosa? Johnny Bench over Tony Perez? It depends. As far as Hawk Hernandez and Lawson, I think Hernandez is the lowest end you can make the position really work. And MLB is full of guys who played 2B and were ... uh ... range challenged. They all stuck because they could hit. But there were limits. Henderson plastered a -11 ZR at SS. If he I suspect he'll be a little better at 2B (because league average for range will be less). If he winds up at -2 ZR, he'll be like a lot of big league players. (At question, of course, is "what is range?").

Lawson, IMHO is going to get murdered even in OOTP at 2B. I'm going to purely guess he'll do a -15ZR, give or take a ZR or three, maybe worse. At that level he's going to have to be a Hoss and a half offensively to just raise himself to be above replacement.

[RonCo]

I mean...Jeff Kent? Range? Dan Uggla? Gregg Jeffries? Robinson Cano (Range? Not no more he don't). But their bats make them still play-worthy.

My guess is that range in OOTP is spread about like:

SS True Need: 8-10, 7 can play, but you better hit
2B True Need: 6-8, 5 can play but you better hit

9-10 is even better for 2B, but if you've got that kind of range, you're probably playing SS unless you've got the Sax-a-phone hanging from your shoulder.

[Lane]

You're all right that it's highly unlikely that Lawson lasts more than a month at 2B. But he's young enough I think he might get a bump with spring training and daily reps in April. Probably not, but you don't know if you don't try!


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[bschr682]

You're all right that it's highly unlikely that Lawson lasts more than a month at 2B. But he's young enough I think he might get a bump with spring training and daily reps in April. Probably not, but you don't know if you don't try!


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Range never goes up. Only down as a guy ages.