WTF? Times Vol. 8, Iss. 1: 10 to Watch in '07

[salas]

Well, Pflubs Pfans, this ongoing journal went the way of the Louisville ballclub over the last month of the season, which is to say, nowhere. Seems like ownership once again gave up on things just when respectability and, indeed, a potential playoff berth were within reach. The end result? The club's best finish since its 95-win campaign in '97 but also an offseason filled with "what ifs", perhaps not the greatest of which was the issue noted above.

Nope, that may have been surpassed. By what, you ask?

Well, what if the Flubs had gotten their s*** together and re-signed a key piece of the Strathallan deal, namely, Rafael Avila??

The seven diehard Flubs fans are already well aware of this, but for the remainder, the fairweatherers, now saying "WTF???", yes, the club failed to negotiate with the All-Star catcher until the very last minute, and although it looked like a deal would still get done, league rules apparently cut off negotiations before they were finalized, Avila rejected the club's last-ditch arbitration offer, and somehow Carolina swooped in and nabbed him just days into the 2006-07 offseason.

Considering the lack of quality replacements available (and of the few out there, Louisville has been unable to land any of them), consider the Flubs as starting the season 0-1.

Well, considering Avila's WAR, better make that more like 0-5.4.

And, with that, we begin our preseason Flubs coverage, such as it is, by running down 10 names to watch during the 2007 season. Normally, we'd have a few FA signings in there, but with a relative lack of talent out there, especially that which even considered signing with Louisville in the first place, it looks like we're gonna have a mostly internal list of names, with some exceptions, notably

1. C Rafael Avila, Carolina Kraken (2006: .300-11-65 w/Lou.)

Obviously, if Avila hits .230 the rest of his career or gets hit with a career-ending injury (hey, it's happened to the Kraken before!), then we'll all breathe a big sigh of relief. Seriously, though, what are the odds of any of that happening? (Well, ok, maybe a little higher in Carolina...) Dude was exactly what the Flubs needed last year - not so much a big bat, but a guy who could hit, draw walks (led the team with 100, and play D, as he threw out 42% of would-be base thieves and was just all-around awesome. Anything he does this season is gonna hurt.


2. C Julio Martinez (2006: .434-0-11, 34 games)

Yes, it looks at present as if Martinez will become the starter, because, hey, there's nobody else. Now it could be worse: Martinez has hit a ton in 2 of his 3 seasons as the backup (that .434 from last year is not a misprint), and defensively he's solid, having thrown out 7 of 13 runners last season and having made one lone error. Still, he's 30 and has logged about 950 total innings behind the plate over 3 seasons with the club - that's just over 100 games, folks, and now we're gonna ask him to do more than that in a year? This isn't looking good and will need to be fixed some way, somehow, some time very soon.


3. CL Ted Dever (2006: 7-12, 33 SV, 4.20 ERA)

Face it, folks, Dever is not recapturing his Calgary form for us; his days of being the elite of the elite are done. Still, Dever should be crafty enough now not to lose 12 games, and yet that's exactly what he did last season, and it had a HUGE impact on the playoff chase. His WAR may have been 0.9, but you could just as easily craft a stat, say Wins Below Expectation, that would probably be at least 5 or higher. Even a return to 2004 form would really help this club next season, but don't count on it.


4. SU Nathan Campbell(2006: 4-1, 4 SV, 4.84 ERA)

Remember when, not long ago, this kid was considered a sure-fire HOFer and forced his way immediately into the bigs by dominating AAA-ball over parts of 2 seasons with a sub-1 ERA?? Yeah, then he forgot how to throw strikes consistently, and while he got away with it in '05, he didn't last year. Luckily, the control issue seems to have bottomed out, but unless he can overcome the walks to a certain extent, there's no way the team can count on him to be a dominant late-inning guy much longer.


5. SP Jessie Wright (2006: 8-8, 4.25 ERA w/Lou.)

Wright pitched a tick better for Louisville than he had to start the season in Madison, but the Flubs took a gamble that a new setting would work more wonders than it did, at least last season. Management feels he's still capable of being the Jessie Wright who was 18-10 a few years back, if not the 30-2 Wright from '01, but he still actually needs to go out and prove it. Either way, though, he'll pitch quality innings and draw crowds for a decent contract, hence the #5 ranking on our list.


6. 3B Devin Clark (2006: .244-4-21, 79 games)

With Ossian Fallon again missing a bunch of time, the above is how Clark fared as his de facto replacement in most cases (though Clark still tended to see action mostly against lefties whenever it was possible to platoon otherwise). The numbers were much improved compared to about the same amount of playing time in his rookie year of '05, but let's say Fallon goes down in spring training (yes, I probably just cursed him to that fate), and let's say Terry Coture isn't back to 100% after his injury (maybe I should stop saying these things, just in case...). That puts Clark squarely at #1 on the depth chart, but is he up to the task? Against lefties, yes - he hit .280 last season. Against righties, only spring training will tell.


7. CF Pat Park (2006: .266-10-41, 101 games)

Park came out swinging in '06 hitting well above .300 in April and hit righties better than expected all season long, at least until he got whacked in the head in early August and started seeing triple. It was so bad, he hasn't taken a swing of any sort ever since and will probably have to open the season with a rehab assignment, because it's doubtful he'll be ready even for spring training. Luckily, the club has another viable CF option for the short term in Roberto Garcia, but he's not a long-term solution, so if Park can't come back, not only will the club need to look outside for a replacement, but it makes the Strathallan deal that much less palatable.


8. RP Bobby Kennedy (2006: 1-0, 2.69 ERA, 58 games)

The stars were aligned against Kennedy to start '06: he wasn't likely to make the team given his blah 2005 numbers, he had other competition to deal with, and his general makeup hadn't really changed over the course of the last offseason. Yet, given a chance more or less on a coin flip by management to start April, by the end of the season he had an All-Star appearance (though one to forget) under his belt and was the most reliable bullpen arm over the course of the season. The big question, of course, is whether Kennedy has a prayer of repeating this. Keep in mind he hadn't relieved since A-ball before his rookie season, and he may have just been very lucky last year, as a BABIP of .260 would indicate.


9. RF Orlando Martinez(2006: .215-12-31, 64 games)

Based on the impact he had during the 1st half last season, he's lower on the list than he probably should be, as he's still a career .320 hitter even after last season, but it's not looking like that will hold up much longer. Martinez's career is in serious jeopardy after a torn labrum knocked him out for the 2nd half, and it's unlikely he'll put up numbers anywhere near his .359-28-108 2002 season ever again. Still, the club managed to get along without a significant contribution from him last year, but another "what if" is definitely in order here.


10. SP Chris Allen (2006: 3-7, 6.70 ERA)

Allen is young enough (26) that he's still a prospect of sorts, and he has 3 strong pitches with decent control and some movement. After back-to-back 10-win seasons over his first 2 years in the league, it appeared the team had, at the very least, a solid #5 starter to rely on going in to 2006. That changed pretty quickly, as Allen was completely inconsistent from start to finish. A poor spring could see him back in AAA, though he could still have more value in the pen, as Ramon Baca will not be back this season.

[recte44]

I found an inexpensive catching platoon for you from EBA refugees still out in FA:

Javier Soto vs RHP
Aurelien Capriati vs LHP

Martinez could be the "vs RHP" part of your platoon, too, maybe Soto for AAA depth?

[salas]

We'll see if Hugo can put together one more season for us now, or if his career is "lost"...see what I did there?

[salas]

Wow, "the reactions by the fans to the acquisition of H. Reyes are amazing"!!! I thought everybody hated Hugo?? (See what I did there again??)

[nverhoev]

So you're saying Hugo got off the island?

[salas]

Indeed!

[jkloes1]

Matt, stop helping my rival!!