Slugger Shavings 2038.2 - Assessing the damage - Starting Pitching, part 2

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Slugger Shavings 2038.2 - Assessing the damage - Starting Pitching, part 2

Post by sjshaw » Sat Jun 01, 2019 6:57 pm

We continue our jaunt through the rotation with LHSP Augusto Sánchez. Augusto is a rare find in Louisville: a draftee who actually didn't die! Picked in the 2034 3rd round, Augusto moved through the system in an efficient, unspectacular fashion. This is surprising given his solid ratings (10/7/7 with no split and 3 excellent pitches). He debuted last season to minimal fanfare, and continued his historically mediocre performance in his first full season. He put up the best ERA on the staff (3.99), but the 3rd best xFIP (4.691). He looked like he turned a corner in July and August, but a horrid September pulled his numbers down. He must have been depressed over the ownership change. At 22 years of age, and with five more seasons of team control, Augusto is someone we hope to build around.

The clear 4th-best starter of 2038 is 28-year-old RHSP Pepe Jaramillo. He has one more year of team control, and will be moving on in 2039 FA unless he manages to get his nightmarish walk rate (11.19 BB%) under control. We don't have any use for an aging SP who gets a congo line started around the bases while not striking anybody out (6.75 K/9). His 2038 walk rate is much higher than usual for him, so Pepe may be better suited to low-leverage bullpen work. And boy, do we have openings in the bullpen.

Speaking of guys who will not be returning in the same role, we come to 5th starter RHSP Carlos Guzmán, who somehow got 32 starts. He's good at one thing: keeping the ball in the park (8 MOV). Unfortunately, he's horrible at everything else. His 2038 splits are bizarre. Against RHB, he was an near-ace (3.72 FIP, 2.4 WAR), while against LHB, he was what you'd expect (5.85 FIP, -0.1 WAR). If I had to guess, his performance against LHB is more predictive of the future. He will likely be DFAd, unless some enterprising GM decides to take a spin of the wheel and offer me a spec for him.

One of the reasons I feel confident in saying goodbye to Mr. Guzman is the most interesting member of the LOU bullpen, and a player who will be examined in depth next installment: SP/RP Lando Klomp.
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Re: Slugger Shavings 2038.2 - Assessing the damage - Starting Pitching, part 2

Post by RonCo » Sat Jun 01, 2019 7:00 pm

Guzman is a druggie.
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