Slugger Shavings 2038.1 - Assessing the damage - Starting Pitching, part 1
Posted: Sat Jun 01, 2019 4:02 pm
The number 2034 has a special meaning for the new ownership of the Louisville Sluggers.
No, it's not my debit card PIN, so don't even try.
It actually is the last season LOU finished over .500. The last season of a glorious seven-season playoff run. The last season LOU appeared in the Landis Memorial Series. And more importantly, the last season LOU was able to humiliate the hated Yellow Springs Nine in a direct manner, as opposed to leaving flaming poop bags in front of RonCo's door.
It's also plastered on signage all over Slugger HQ. It's the number on every fake player's locker. It's stamped on every baseball. And until the annoying commies at the FAKE BASEBALL PLAYERS UNION stepped in with their "fake players aren't your legal property" bullshit, was going to be tattooed backwards on every fake player's forehead (you know, so they can see it in the mirror... muhahahahaha). We'll table that initiative until I manage to complete my regulatory capture of the National Fake Labor Relations Board.
Anyhoo, the gist of what I'm telling you, in case you're not grasping the thread, is that we want to return to the glory days of 2034 (except with regard to fake labor relations, in which case we're shooting for emulating the early 20th century meat packing industry... fuck you Upton Sinclair).
However, in order to go backwards to 2034, we must go... well, backwards, just not as much, and evaluate what happened in the 2038 season. Then we go further back to 2034, but by going forward to 2039, and then we... ah, fuck it, this is a stupid gimmick.
2038 LOU Starting Pitching in Review
Our starting pitching turned out to be the lone somewhat bright spot of 2038, with our SP's 4.45 ERA finishing 3rd in the JL, and our overall RA of 777 being 6th in the JL. Our disastrous bullpen totally negated this performance, and will be the subject of the next article, one that will be mostly composed of curse words and references to Chernobyl.
SP Kevin Morales finished 13-9, with some interesting peripherals. He led all LOU SP in K/9 (7.38), BB/9 (1.70), and xFIP (4.116). Sounds awesome, right! What a stud!
Slow your roll. He gave up a career-high 2.03 HR/9. That's... not good. This probably led to the massive disparity between his 4.116 xFIP and his FIP (5.021). Why did this happen?
Let's look at his H/A splits.... GOOD LORD. He gave up 1.6 HR/9 away from Louisville (not good), but 2.4 HR/9 in our park (so, so, so not good).
Hmmm... let me look at our park factors... oh. Yeah. 1.422 LHB HR. That's the good stuff. We'll be suing the contractor Monday when the courthouse opens.
Funny that a RHSP, with a low 6 MOV against LHB, pitching in a park that has coed rec-league softball dimensions in RF, would devolve into a HR derby pitcher when facing the plethora of huge-split CBA LHB in said shithole ballpark.
I feel confident that, if we push those fences out, that Mr. Morales will turn in more than 2.01 WAR in 2039. He's a keeper (or might be traded, if you bowl me over with an offer, because god knows he would be devastating in a pitcher's park with his STU and CON).
SP Ken "Hotpants" Bates led the JL in losses (17). The pre-analytics GM in me says he sucks and we should trade him for a gallon of expired milk. The enlightened GM in me says, let's look a little more closely at this. Hmmm... 2nd on the team in K/9 (7.25), BB/9 (2.18), and xFIP (4.426). Not bad. If I had to guess, his run support sucked.
Interesting fact about Mr. Bates (insert Beavis laugh) is that he's eligible for FA. Should we re-sign him? This is where my being a new owner is detrimental, because I don't know what a moderately above-average SP like him commands in FA. I've offered him an extension that seems reasonable, because even though I haven't been around BBA long, I know that 8/5/7 LHSP with minimal splits don't sign for the league minimum. At the least, I want to leverage an extension with a player option into a compensatory pick. He is very gettable in trade talks, though.
If you made it this far, look for Part 2 of our SP year in review.
No, it's not my debit card PIN, so don't even try.
It actually is the last season LOU finished over .500. The last season of a glorious seven-season playoff run. The last season LOU appeared in the Landis Memorial Series. And more importantly, the last season LOU was able to humiliate the hated Yellow Springs Nine in a direct manner, as opposed to leaving flaming poop bags in front of RonCo's door.
It's also plastered on signage all over Slugger HQ. It's the number on every fake player's locker. It's stamped on every baseball. And until the annoying commies at the FAKE BASEBALL PLAYERS UNION stepped in with their "fake players aren't your legal property" bullshit, was going to be tattooed backwards on every fake player's forehead (you know, so they can see it in the mirror... muhahahahaha). We'll table that initiative until I manage to complete my regulatory capture of the National Fake Labor Relations Board.
Anyhoo, the gist of what I'm telling you, in case you're not grasping the thread, is that we want to return to the glory days of 2034 (except with regard to fake labor relations, in which case we're shooting for emulating the early 20th century meat packing industry... fuck you Upton Sinclair).
However, in order to go backwards to 2034, we must go... well, backwards, just not as much, and evaluate what happened in the 2038 season. Then we go further back to 2034, but by going forward to 2039, and then we... ah, fuck it, this is a stupid gimmick.
2038 LOU Starting Pitching in Review
Our starting pitching turned out to be the lone somewhat bright spot of 2038, with our SP's 4.45 ERA finishing 3rd in the JL, and our overall RA of 777 being 6th in the JL. Our disastrous bullpen totally negated this performance, and will be the subject of the next article, one that will be mostly composed of curse words and references to Chernobyl.
SP Kevin Morales finished 13-9, with some interesting peripherals. He led all LOU SP in K/9 (7.38), BB/9 (1.70), and xFIP (4.116). Sounds awesome, right! What a stud!
Slow your roll. He gave up a career-high 2.03 HR/9. That's... not good. This probably led to the massive disparity between his 4.116 xFIP and his FIP (5.021). Why did this happen?
Let's look at his H/A splits.... GOOD LORD. He gave up 1.6 HR/9 away from Louisville (not good), but 2.4 HR/9 in our park (so, so, so not good).
Hmmm... let me look at our park factors... oh. Yeah. 1.422 LHB HR. That's the good stuff. We'll be suing the contractor Monday when the courthouse opens.
Funny that a RHSP, with a low 6 MOV against LHB, pitching in a park that has coed rec-league softball dimensions in RF, would devolve into a HR derby pitcher when facing the plethora of huge-split CBA LHB in said shithole ballpark.
I feel confident that, if we push those fences out, that Mr. Morales will turn in more than 2.01 WAR in 2039. He's a keeper (or might be traded, if you bowl me over with an offer, because god knows he would be devastating in a pitcher's park with his STU and CON).
SP Ken "Hotpants" Bates led the JL in losses (17). The pre-analytics GM in me says he sucks and we should trade him for a gallon of expired milk. The enlightened GM in me says, let's look a little more closely at this. Hmmm... 2nd on the team in K/9 (7.25), BB/9 (2.18), and xFIP (4.426). Not bad. If I had to guess, his run support sucked.
Interesting fact about Mr. Bates (insert Beavis laugh) is that he's eligible for FA. Should we re-sign him? This is where my being a new owner is detrimental, because I don't know what a moderately above-average SP like him commands in FA. I've offered him an extension that seems reasonable, because even though I haven't been around BBA long, I know that 8/5/7 LHSP with minimal splits don't sign for the league minimum. At the least, I want to leverage an extension with a player option into a compensatory pick. He is very gettable in trade talks, though.
If you made it this far, look for Part 2 of our SP year in review.
