While the WC picture looks pretty promising, the more intriguing path to the playoffs is as the winner of the Atlantic.
While this story could age poorly quickly, we must ask, what would you do?
Jacksonville has money to spend. They rank near the bottom in terms of payroll -- 29th -- and have ~22 million in cap space for '53 and ~40m in '54. While unless the team complete collapses, there are a few expiring contracts that will likely look for extensions, some of that money will need to go elsewhere.
The prospect of eating a big contract could be enticing for other teams looking to make some room themselves, while also allowing Jacksonville to potentially bring back some prospect talent as well as a 'thank you' for helping a team in a less ideal financial situation. Jacksonville's farm is a bottom half -- 22nd -- with most of its most promising candidates (Bob Anderson, Pedro Hozven) coming from the Best/Barkin trade to Des Moines. There is little depth to speak of, and most of their other prospects are a bit further away from the majors.
Now the question: where do you look for an upgrade?
These team rankings do little to inspire confidence -- of the Johnson League's 16 teams, JAX looks to be floating around the middle in most team categories. There are a few notable exceptions -- batter walks (4th) and HRs allowed (5th). Getting on base and keeping the ball in the park are two key factors for success, but not enough to win a championship assuming middle of the pack rankings elsewhere. The areas where improvement is sorely needed: Stolen Bases (15th), Zone Rating (13th) and pitcher walks (13th).
This tracks with 2 of the prevailing storylines for JAX this year -- the lack of CF defense and the rotating door of starting pitchers. Some may argue these aren't particularly important, but they're worth noting as areas of opportunity. Low SBs seem to be more of a strategic choice as the team takes few attempts -- JAX isn't built with speed in mind and it seems their coaching staff knows it. Sawyer Slizz leads the team with 6 SBs, with 0 CS. No one else on the team has made more than 3 attempts outside of SS Wagaw Fakihi, who is 5 for 7 on attempts -- not bad.
Looking through the roster, where would you look to make an upgrade? This writer suggests going for pitching and a strong defensive CFer, but does JAX have enough in the farm to pay up? Would the cost in the top heavy Brewster be worth it?
Sawyer Slizz has been surging since moving to RF, where he goes from a poor defender (-8.3 ZR, .949 Eff in CF to 2.1 ZR, 1.097 Eff in RF) to a great one (and apparently found his bat, posting a .313/.340/476 June), Manny Garcia in CF has held steady, but the bat leaves much to be desired. While Fakihi is a bottom tier hitter at SS, at least the glove helps make up for it. Hardly anyone else on JAX is posting inspiring fielding numbers, but shifting Slizz to RF and Yokoyama to DH in most games seems to have helped in the worst areas.
The pitching situation is similarly difficult to parse with few obvious moves to make. Todd Schroeder appears to have found himself as a starter, posting a 1.07 ERA in 17 IP as a SP, while posting an 8.25 ERA in 25 IP as an RP. The team's bullpen is still in a position where waivers and free agents can make improvements, and the AAA roster looks strong enough on the pitching front that JAX could rotate in a few guys to see who works out in the back half of the season.
All that said, JAX is in a situation where they'll likely need to sell before they can really buy in order to get some modest returns for parts of their roster that would be appreciated elsewhere. This will also make some space for them to bring in talent without having to release any players who are performing well in lower levels.
Is JAX for real or are they a .500 team that's waiting for their comeuppance?
We may be asking different questions when the deadline comes, but Jacksonville is poised to make a splash if it seems they're positioned to make a push as they are right now.
