25-Feb-53 -- Jacksonville Forecast #2: Best & Barkin Head to Des Moines

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25-Feb-53 -- Jacksonville Forecast #2: Best & Barkin Head to Des Moines

Post by pandan » Tue Nov 22, 2022 8:43 am

GM Dan Rigatoni didn't wait long to shake things up. Not long after the clock struck midnight to ring in the new year, Jacksonville announced they traded ace starter Stephen Best and starting shortstop Larry Barkin. Full deal details below:
Des Moines gets:
SP Stephen Best (ML)
SS Larry Barkin (ML)

Jacksonville gets:
2B Ka'im Muntasir (ML)
SP Bob Anderson (AAA)
SP Derek Dyce (AAA)
1B Tyson Barber (AAA)
LF Pedro Hozven (AA)
SP Fatin Asad (A)
Fans were quick to voice their displeasure at the deal. After a mediocre 77-87 2052, some fans felt the team was only a few pieces away from a playoff run in 2053. However, Rigatoni felt the team would be better served using the opportunity to rebuild and improve clubhouse culture. GMs across the BBA seemed to agree with Rigatoni's assessment.

"Many of our starting players ranked in the bottom 10 of the BBA, with almost half of those in the bottom 5," Rigatoni shared. "While we think we can make improvements to individual performance, it's hard to go all in with what seems like a faulty core." While the free agent market had no shortage of options, many of them came with high costs or high risks attached. To Rigatoni, this felt like a ticking time bomb.

"There are a lot of great players in this league, but many of the best are getting old. It's hard to justify putting a good chunk of your budget towards a guy who may break his hip rounding first base. That's why we focused on getting younger and investing in the farm."

Was Rigatoni's investment sound? Let's break down the players sent over from Des Moines.

The headliner for this deal was SP Bob Anderson. Anderson is currently the #33 prospect in the BBA, boasting 3.8 WAR and 3.5 rWAR across 21 starts and 131 IP in AA last year, with 67% of his starts being quality outings.

Bob's season was cut short with a torn UCL, which will likely mean he won't see any action until June the earliest, but more conservative estimates place his return closer to July. The hard-throwing righty tops out around 96-98 MPH and held batters to a .216 average, largely leaning on his plus fastball and curveball. He profiles as the type of pitcher that'd be a fit on any club or in any ballpark, leaning on strikeouts (9.1 K/9) and limiting HRs (0.3 HR/9).

UCL injuries can be a death sentence for pitchers though, and while the gamble on the 22-year-old seems promising, JAX was wise to bet against him and ensure they had more than Anderson coming back. Anderson will likely start 2053 in AAA and isn't rule 5 eligible for another 2 years, so he has plenty of time to get it together after his injury. Even if he comes back at 80-90% of pre-injury form, Anderson will be a solid option for JAX going forward.

2B Ka'im Muntasir, a 25-year old, split time between AAA and ML last year. In 63 starts in AAA, he accured 2 WAR, slashing .315/.376/.458. While he struggled a bit in ML, slashing .244/.282./.319 in 36 starts and 52 appearances, Muntasir profiles as a plus defender at 2B and 3B and has the range to fill in at SS. While Rigatoni wasted no time signing veteran FA middle infielders Cisco Jiménez and Wagaw Fariki, having a younger option with upside and positional flexibility going into the year will be welcome. It's tough to say if Muntasir will stick around as a regular, but if his spring training audition goes well, he'll likely find himself as at least a bench IFer.

Left-handed SP Derek Dyce is a 24-year-old starter who spent the better part of the 2050's in AAA. While he's had flashes of brilliance there, with a 4.5 WAR age 23 season in 2051, last year he split time with AAA and ML. His AAA numbers were similarly solid, but Dyce struggled to adjust the the majors, with a 7.35 ERA in 60 innings, starting 10 games (20% QS%) and appearing in relief 5 times. While his first year in the BBA was rough, Dyce still shows promise as a back-end rotation or swingman. He's young enough that he has room to improve and contribute.

1B Tyson Barber is an unusual 26-year-old. A plus defender at 1B and the corner outfielders, he profiles as an elite base stealer. His issue, unfortunately, has been getting on base, slashing .207/.254/.333 in AAA across 91 games last year. He's had limited exposure to the majors in his career, appearing in 151 games over 4 seasons, with the majority coming through in a fairly successful 2051 campaign, albeit still below league average in OPS+ and WRC+ (95 and 93, respectively).

While typically you'd want more offensive production out of players in the positions he plays, Barber offers a unique skillset and presents Rigatoni with flexibility in lineup construction. Barber could be interesting off the bench or as an injury fill in, but he's a dark horse candidate to platoon at 1B with right-handed counterpart, Gary Brooks..

LF Pedro Hozven is likely the most promising batter to come back in this deal. The 22-year-old hasn't played beyond AA, but slashed .306/.402/.454 in A ball this year. He's a minus runner and corner OF defender, meaning that he'll likely end up as a DH. As a patient lefty (4 PIPA in A) who can draw walks (12.7 BB%) and hit both for power and average, he could certainly show up on the ML roster as an impact player in the future. He'll likely start the year in AA and could get a cup of coffee in 2053 if he keeps up the strong showing. He's rated #91 on the BBA prospect rankings list.

SP Fatin Asad is the greenest player of the bunch, tossing 9 games in Short-A last year. Across 51.2 IP, he accured 1.1 WAR and a 3.74 ERA. While he allowed 11 hits per 9, he boasted a 20.4% strikeout rate and an amazingly low 1.7 BB/9, good for a 4.5% walk rate (4.5 K/BB). Asad's quite a ways away from the majors, but he put together a promising rookie campaign that Rigatoni hopes he can build off of. He's a 4 pitch pitcher with a plus changeup and potentially strong screwball.

The winner of this deal will be hard to determine. Many of the players Rigatoni brought in have some clear risks and some clear upside. While indiviudally, they may not be as impactful as Barkin or Best, as part of a team that will continue to rebuild through FA and the draft, they could be at worst, solid depth options that helps keep positive momentum.

"Best and Barkin are great, but we couldn't risk losing them to FA and getting nothing in return. I feel good about this deal and hope, in time, the fans will, too."

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Re: 25-Feb-52 -- Jacksonville Forecast #2: Best & Barkin Head to Des Moines

Post by Dington » Tue Nov 22, 2022 8:57 am

Gonna be really interesting to see how this plays out in a few years. Might not look like a great return right now, it could be BBA talent in a couple years as the player quality lowers throughout the league.
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Re: 25-Feb-52 -- Jacksonville Forecast #2: Best & Barkin Head to Des Moines

Post by pandan » Sat Nov 26, 2022 10:43 am

Yeah agreed -- 3 of the folks I got back made the ML squad (Barber, Dyce, and Muntasir) after spring training, but we'll see how things pan out long term.

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