Dugout Dirt 2051.8

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jjw
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Dugout Dirt 2051.8

Post by jjw » Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:58 pm

The regular season having now been completed, your faithful correspondent felt a responsibility to objectively assess the Jacksonville Hurricanes' performance, both as a team as for some of its key players.

To start with, the club's final record of 77-85, a .475 winning percentage that places them in the right middle of the Johnson League and left them 31 games behind division winner New Orleans and 10 games out of the second wild card position, was plainly dismaying to both fans and ownership. Four consecutive seasons of making the playoffs had spoiled many fans and, quite obviously, the principal owner, Tuck Friar, who expressed his frustration to first year GM Jack Whalen on many occasions and, leave us not forget, in the press. But with the advantage of hindsight, this record should not be a surprise and in this sense the disappointment, while understandable at least amongst the Hurricanes devoted fans, is perhaps not fairly deserved.

Injuries to contributed to the fall-off from April's promising 16-10 start to three straight losing months: 12-17 May, an only very slightly better 12-15 June, and then a disastrous 8-18 July. The decline in May can be attributed in part to injuries to two key outfield starters. Left fielder Júlio Uribe, who was one of the team's best hitters at that time, suffered a herniated disk on April 18, and ended up missing almost six weeks. Uribe was traded to Charlotte for Pedro Huerta soon after going on the IL, which helped fill that slot, but then right fielder Jude Stephens sprained his knee a week after Uribe's injury and missed five weeks. And no sooner was Stephens almost ready to come back when starting shortstop Larry Barkin, another team batting leader (usually in the leadoff slot), was struck in the face by a pitch and missed over five weeks of play.

Less than a month later a third outfielder (and batting leader), CF Sawyer Slizz, strained his hamstring and was out for three weeks. In mid-July, things got worse: Stephen Best, one of the club's top hurler, tore his meniscus, putting him out for the season. As Jacksonville's pitching was absolutely key to any chance of success -- in batting, as we shortly be clear enough, the Hurricanes were one of the worst, in the league, if not the whole Association -- losing Best was a major body blow.

The club did recover in August with a 15-12 mark, and their play stayed much the same for September with a 14-13 finish. But the damage was done over those three months. The Hurricanes were hopelessly out of the running for the post season, let alone reaching even the .500 mark. And the final weeks witnessed a lot of streak plays -- 0-5, then 5-0, then 0-3.

As for the performances of individual players, a few do stand out amidst widespread mediocrity. Pedro Huerta had a good season, batting .290 while playing for the Hurricanes after the trade with Charlotte -- although his .316 OBP revealed a perhaps overlay aggressive approach (that is to say, only a .26 differential between BA and OBP) -- and slugging 28 home runs to tie star right fielder David Simpson for the team lead. He was also tied with Simpson for WAR amongst position players, with both at 3.1.

Simpson had a good year himself, batting .272 with an outstanding .392 OBP and .496 slugging (which gave him an .888 OPS). But Simpson will now be a free agent, and with his $28M annual contract it is highly doubtful the Hurricanes will make any attempt to resign him. We have to assume Jacksonville has seen the last of Mr Simpson.

First baseman Pancho Costa led the club in batting average at .283, with a .323 OBP and 22 homers.His 2.71 win probability also led the club (just ahead of Simpson's 2.70) and his 2.6 WAR was third amongst position players behind Simpson and Huerta.

Plainly, a 2.6 WAR is really not that much to trumpet, which gives you a good indication of how poorly the rest of the Hurricanes batters performed at the plate this season. The next highest WAR amongst position players is CF Sawyer Slizz at 1.6 and then catcher Luis Colón at 1.2.

Colón's season was a nice surprise. But an even bigger surprise at catcher was Colón's backup, Rule 5 draft selection Felix Anaya, who had a 286/343/440 season with a 773 OPS (which translates to an above average OPS+ of 103). Anaya's catcher ERA of 3.97 in 25 starts actually bettered Colón's 4.50, suggesting that Hurricane pitchers were happy enough with him behind the dish.

Continuing with the batters, RF Jude Stephens was expected when the season began to be in the starting lineup most every game, but he missed a number of games after that sprained knee in May with several short term nagging injuries. Stephens ending up starting only 51 games with just 81 total appearances. His .246/.223 L/R BA splits with a 0.5 WAR are not that bad, but he was often enough not in the starting lineup against righties, which also helped limit his playing time.

The only other position player with a positive WAR -- and just barely, 0.1 -- was another catcher, Dwayne Duce, 265/294/451 in 30 starts. An OBP less than .300 is problematic, which is why we should expect to see more of Anaya than Duce next season.

A final position player worth mentioning is rookie first baseman Gary Brooks, who was called up in May from AAA Gotham. Brooks earned 48 starts, most often at DH, and had a respectable 298/342/410 season (with an OPS+ of 99 in his limited playing time). Brooks often got the nod against southpaw starters, but actually hit better against righties (.328 vs .285), and he may well see more playing time as a result next season.

As for the pitching g staff, which was one bright spot for the Hurricanes (they were ion the league's top 25% here), Takehide Gertrudes led the way for the starters, compiling a 16-9 record in 30 starts with an at least somewhat respectable 4.06 ERA and a 3.6 WAR that led the roster. Peter Dean also had a decent year: 14-9 in 30 starts, with a 4.26 ERA and 2.7 WAR. (The Hurricanes experimented with Dean, a good hitter as well as hurler, in the DH slot when he wasn't pitching but after a good beginning of the season Dean fell off at the plate and only rarely did DH duties after that.)

Southpaw Hayden Bennion's 8-12 may seem weak after these two, but he had a better ERA at 3.78 in 31 starts. Luis Rúbio started 21 games, going 4-9 and 4.92, and had a very nice April and May but then fell off badly and ended up finishing the season in the bullpen, where he did not do much better. Toward the end of the season, Dean O'Gribben was called up from Gotham and started 10 times, with his 4-2 and 4.19 promising better things in the future. Finally, Stephen Best was 3-6 in 19 starts before his season-ending injury, with an ERA of 3.91 (ERA+ 116) and WAR of 2.3

The most standout pitching performance for Jacksonville, however, came from closer, 26 year-old Alejándro Chavez. The hard throwing righty saved 38 games and finished with an excellent 2.01 ERA (ERA+ 226!) and 1.13 WHIP in 59 appearences. Batters hit only .208 against him and he had 61 Ks and 24 BB in 62.2 IP. Chavez's .277 BABIP and 2.65 FIP make plain that his season was consistently great.

Righty Chung Chan and southpaw Seung-cheol Kim were in fair number of games in relief as well (51 and 41, respectively), but Kim was the only one of this pair who excelled: 3.18 ERA, 143 ERA+, 1.22 WHIP and .241 BA against, compared to Chan's 5.69 ERA and 1.41 WHIP and .279 BA against.

Chávez is only 26, Chan and Kim 25, with Rúbio the oldest amongst the starters at age 29, with Dean 28, Getrudes 27, Bennion and Best both 26, and O'Gribben 25, which does give the Hurricanes hope that their pitching can continue to lead the team in seasons to come.

As for the future more broadly, Jacksonville tried to beginning rebuilding its system by signing five players (!) in the Rule 5 draft. In addition to Anaya, there were four pitchers: Juan Garcia, Juan Cruz, Hilarious Stohl, and Antonio Cruz. Southpaw Garcia made 35 relief appearances with a 3-4 record and 3 saves, with a 5.04 ERA, hardly a stellar season. Cruz was pretty much the same, 3-4, 5.05 in 32 appearances (4 as a starter). Stohl was 1-0 in 38 games, strictly out of the pen, with a 6.00 ERA. Cruz was released early in the season, making just a couple appearances. All in all, then, aside from Anaya, the Rule 5 draft did not work out very well for Jacksonville this year. There were a number of players signed as minor league free agent during the season, but we will have to wait to learn whether that will result in any success.

To end this not-very-positive report, your correspondent wants to point out that on defense, Jacksonville was in some key categories above average, with their defense efficient rating of .685 in the league's top 5 and their team range factor of 4.11 tied for the league lead. So that's something else to feel okay about, if you are a Hurricanes fan.
Jack Whalen
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