Dugout Dirt 2051.2

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jjw
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Dugout Dirt 2051.2

Post by jjw » Tue Jun 07, 2022 5:32 pm

After rather mediocre Spring play, two weeks into the 2051 season the Hurricanes are off to what most might regard as a surprising good start, with a 10-2 record that stands as the best record in the Brewster and puts them in first place in the Jonson League's Atlantic Division. But is it actually surprising? Not when you consider how a team that figured to be at best a contender only for one of the Johnson League's wild card slots was able to win those 10 games: The Canes were 6-0 in 1-run games, and this is basically why their' Pythagorean number is +2 (also tops in the Brewster).

And just how were they so successful in their play, especially in very close games? Two reasons: pitching and more pitching.

The bullpen has been brilliant. 31 2/3 IP with only 5 ER, for an ERA of 1.42. Closer Alejandro Chávez has yet to surrender a run, and is 6 for 6 in save opportunities with but 1 hit and 2 walks and 10 Ks in his 6 1/3 innings, for a WHIP of 0.47. The two setup guys, Chung Chan and Seung-cheol Kim, have given up but one run in their combined 10 1/3 innings and have 6 holds between them. The three pitchers in the middle reliever role -- Juan García, Mu-tazz bin Akram and Todd Shroeder -- have yet to give up an earned run in their combined 6 innings. And while two of the three hurlers in the long-reliever role -- Christopher Mead and Hilarious Stohl -- have been scored upon, only Stohl was knocked around a bit (3 runs off 2 HRs in the team's 8-2 loss to Charlotte) in their combined 9 innings.

Additionally, the starting rotation -- Peter Dean, Stephen Best, Hayden Bennion, Takehide Gertrudes, and Luis Rúbio --has been solid: 73 IP with 28 ER, for a combined ERA of 3.45, and of this group only Gertrudes is above 4 (at 6.52 in two starts), with Best under 3 in his three starts and Rúbio under 2 (a sterling 1.64 in two starts).

Taken together, this has all enabled the team to post the best team ERA in the Brewster, at 2.83 (just slightly ahead of Charlotte's 2.89).

In comparison, the batting has been average at best. In the Brewster Jacksonville ranks 17th in batting average (9th in the Johnson League), 23rd in HRs (11th in the Johnson) and 16th in OPS (8th in the Johnson). But they have not been striking out much (4th lowest total in the Brewster), and putting the ball in play certainly can't hurt a club's chances, maybe particularly in close games.

Some hitters have excelled. Über right fielder David Simpson, with his $28M contract seen as a big burden contributing to the club's strained financial situation, leaving them with no opportunity to sign any free agents to fill significant holes on the roster (with the franchise making several Rule 5 draft selections as an alternative, albeit a risky one -- see the comments on this below), has produced very good slash numbers of 316/458/632 with 2 HRs. Left fielder Julío Uribe is batting .348 with 5 doubles and a triple to go with 8 RBIs. First string catcher Luis Colón is batting .361 with 3 HRs (to co-lead the team) in his 9 starts. Center fielder Sawyer Slizz is hitting .306. Right fielder Jude Stephens is only hitting .226 but also has 3 HRs and 8 RBIs. And the infield combo of second baseman Quinn Richardson and shortstop Larry Barkin are batting 303/410/394 and 310/356/405, respectively.

On defense, the Canes have been better than average in the key category of defensive efficiency: 2nd in the Johnson and 5th in the Brewster. But they have made more errors than most (7th most in the Brewster, in fact) and their team zone rating is only ranked 20th in the Brewster.

Accordingly, when you look at both team batting and fielding, it becomes even more plain that it has been pitching that has carried the day so far for the Canes.

And then we have to consider fortune (aka luck!). Winning all 6 one-run contests is, well, unusually fortunate, and this is plainly not a pace that can be sustained. Yes, Virgil did tell us Audaces fortuna iuvat (luck helps those who are brave), but has Jacksonville been noticeably brave or bold, in its play or management, over the season to date?

The club was bold in the Rule 5 draft, electing to select 5 players, which forced them to put three pitchers who had done some decent work for them in past seasons on waivers + DFA, which then cost them two of the three, but with a farm system that ranked as bad as any in the Brewster (tied for last!) new Jacksonville GM Jack Whalen felt that risks had to be taken in bringing in new blood, even if this meant losing pitchers who might still be valuable and requiring keeping the Rule 5 selections on the active roster all season (even if their potential well exceeded their present performance). Yet the one player DFA'ed who they were able to retain when he cleared waivers, Josè Hurtado, was out of options and so the Canes are now able to place him on roster for the AAA club, Gotham, which is a plus (and frankly, Hurtado was the one guy DFA'ed who the Canes most hoped to keep).

So far, the four Rule 5 selections Jacksonville now has on the roster (the 5th was released after some further consideration) -- pitchers Juan Cruz, Juan García and Hilarius Stohl, and cather Félix Anaya -- have played well enough in these first two weeks (see the reporting on the bullpen above, and although Anaya has only 1 hit in his 10 ABs so far his defense in three starts behind the plate has been more than adequate) to at least not make Whalen's boldness (if you can call it that) look foolish (so far, anyway).

But another move that could be regarded as quite bold has been the decision to use pitcher Peter Dean as a designated hitter -- not for every game where he's not on the mound but for most of them. Dean's hitting ability was obvious, and Whalen felt it was worth the risk (of injury, or tiring him out/wearing him down) to have Dean play both ways. "We really needed his bat," as Whalen puts it. And it has paid off to date. Dean is 3-0 in his three starts, with a 3.38 ERA, and after starting in the DH slot for 5 games his slash numbers are excellent: 353/421/412. Ok, not much power there, but he's getting on base a lot and getting more than his share of hits. It's still early days of course -- only time will tell if this decision turns out to be worth the risk rather than foolish.
Jack Whalen
Manama Pearls 2048-2050
Jacksonville Hurricanes 2051-
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