Just Sign Already, Harper

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Just Sign Already, Harper

Post by agrudez » Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:53 pm

The Giants are going to suck for the next half decade and their park is going to severely hinder your chances of chasing records (which is a stated goal that you've shared before). Plus what's this "short term deal" crap they're trying to peddle? You've been counting the days until this offseason since you came into the league so that you could set some contract records - not capitulate.

The Padres just chose someone else over you and don't have anything left for you. Plus, repeat what I just said above about the Giants - maybe a bit more emphatically, even (especially on the park not being your best friend part).

The White Sox chose someone else over you, were rebuffed and now looking at you as a Plan B. You have more pride than that, right?

Your Nationals career had more lows than highs - do you really want to return there? You've been choked out by a teammate in the dugout more often than you've made a NLCS in your career. And an "anonymous player" (*cough* Max Scherzer *cough*) just went on the record taking shots at you.

The Yankees are waiting for Trout - even though it's a foregone conclusion he ends up back home in red pinstripes.

And no one else is even in the discussion. It's you and Philly, Bryce. You're the match. Maybe you don't love it initially for whatever reason, but that's okay, man. We got your buddy, Rhys. We just traded for your bromance Realmuto, too. Now imagine for a second the lineup protection you get hitting between those two. Did we mention how ridiculously short our corner fences are? Imagine playing there 81 games a year. You have a .930 career OPS in Citizen's Bank Park in 47 career games (>200 ABs). Want to know where that ranks for your career? Well, for stadiums where you've had more than 90 ABs, it just so happens to be #1 - 18 points ahead of National's Park.

So there it is, Bryce. A 12x360 contract waiting for your ink. Your agent and all the media members on his payroll (looking at you, Heyman!) aren't going to make anyone top that. Sign it and go mash some taters.
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Re: Just Sign Already, Harper

Post by RonCo » Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:27 pm

Good luck. My guess is that anyone who signs Harper for more than 4 seasons is going to be angsty as hell over his post-30 year old seasons. But, I'm just a guy sitting behind my computer screen. What do I know?
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Re: Just Sign Already, Harper

Post by JimBob2232 » Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:33 pm

RonCo wrote:
Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:27 pm
Good luck. My guess is that anyone who signs Harper for more than 4 seasons is going to be angsty as hell over his post-30 year old seasons. But, I'm just a guy sitting behind my computer screen. What do I know?
[/quote

I'm a nats fan, and I am completely conflicted on this.

1. I think the nats will be better without harper
2. Harper is such a dynamic player, who is very fun to watch, and brings a lot of enjoyment to me personally when i follow the team.
3. I'd rather the nats spend money on Rendon (among others)
4. I would hate seeing harper on the Phillies. Anywhere else would be okay.
5. The absolute circus when he comes back to Nats park (Nats fans, philly fans, and Harp himself) would be unbearable.
6. Harper just isnt that great (on the field). His numbers (save the MVP season) are just above average. I dont think he is worth the money.

Either way, i'll just be happy when its over.

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Re: Just Sign Already, Harper

Post by Joshua Biddle » Wed Feb 20, 2019 8:41 pm

Phils fan, and hoping they get it done. Without Harper, they're basically handcuffed as they traded away some of their best farm pieces and some of their additions will be regressing (McCutcheon, Arrieta). They'll also then probably sign Kuechel / Kimbrel without Harper, and they'll be overpays and declining. After Middleton's comments, I think they know they have to make it happen. If not, they deserve to fall into oblivion.
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Re: Just Sign Already, Harper

Post by RonCo » Wed Feb 20, 2019 8:56 pm

I think people need to realize that the overall issue isn't that no one would give Harper $300M/10 now, it's that he made only $7M over his first 5 seasons.
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Re: Just Sign Already, Harper

Post by Ted » Thu Feb 21, 2019 6:12 am

RonCo wrote:
Wed Feb 20, 2019 8:56 pm
I think people need to realize that the overall issue isn't that no one would give Harper $300M/10 now, it's that he made only $7M over his first 5 seasons.
This is the main issue, but then again, the players agreed to the CBA. Also, when they talk about it now, note how few of them are saying anything about fixing pay for younger players. They're still all talking about making sure free agents get paid. That's because the union is controlled by the elite baseball guys. Baseball has a pecking order, and it's the best and richest players who control things, and they want to protect their cash cow, which is free agency.

I'd support them a lot more if they were all saying, "Okay, you don't want to overpay us when we're declining? Fine, pay us what we're worth when we're young. Let all those guys with 3-5 year careers actually make money. Pay the minor leaguers who are in a lot of ways the only reason we even have baseball." But they're not. All the player reps and union heads are vets who just want their giant bloated contracts. They are in no way morally superior to the owners. They're just a different set of greedy bastards.
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Re: Just Sign Already, Harper

Post by usnspecialist » Thu Feb 21, 2019 6:48 am

Harper actually made 13.9 million over his first 5 MLB seasons, and that doesn't include the 3 million he made in 2011 while he was in the minors. I agree in general that early year guys are underpaid, but in Harper's case I believe he negotiated an MLB deal right out of the draft so I'm not sure that applies to him.
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Re: Just Sign Already, Harper

Post by RonCo » Thu Feb 21, 2019 9:01 am

It still applies, just not as directly as regards to the CBA. As Ted touches on, it's a complex dynamic...just like union situations in other businesses, except the money is amped in all fashions.
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Re: Just Sign Already, Harper

Post by agrudez » Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:51 pm

Less AAV than Machado and 0 opt outs.
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Re: Just Sign Already, Harper

Post by ae37jr » Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:09 pm

I have a feeling this could get ugly before its over. Harper has a personality that kinda rubs you the wrong way and the philly fans can be unforgiving. Now add in the fact that Harper has had only one season that justifies a contract even half that size... and he is going to be around for 13 seasons? What if he lumps in his early 30's?

I don't wish ill will on any player or team. Hopefully things work out well, Philly wins a couple of championships and Harper goes down as a legend. But come 4-5 years from now Harper is hitting .220 and the Phillies window is closing without anything to show for it. It's going to be ugly "brah".
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Re: Just Sign Already, Harper

Post by agrudez » Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:21 pm

I started to respond, but sometimes really bad takes standing on their own unchallenged is as scathing a response as any.
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Re: Just Sign Already, Harper

Post by Ted » Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:36 pm

agrudez wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:51 pm
Less AAV than Machado and 0 opt outs.
I hope this looks as shitty for Boras as I think it does.
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Re: Just Sign Already, Harper

Post by agrudez » Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:44 pm

Ted wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:36 pm
agrudez wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:51 pm
Less AAV than Machado and 0 opt outs.
I hope this looks as shitty for Boras as I think it does.
He's already in damage control mode. Claiming some teams offered $45M AAV, but Bryce really wanted to play in Philly. Says Bryce willingly forewent any opt outs because he wanted to stay in Philly, too. Both statements are, of course, completely disconnected from what media had been saying for days before hand (including Boras personal mouthpieces like Jon Heyman) - particularly on the opt out part. As recently as yesterday the report was that the last thing he and Philadelphia were haggling over was when the opt out would take place with Bryce's camp wanting 3 years (presumably to capitalize on the impending player's strike).

So, yeah, eat **** Boras - you lost.
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Re: Just Sign Already, Harper

Post by RonCo » Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:28 pm

Before it's all done, I think the big loser here will be Philadelphia. Mostly my reaction was ...hahahahahahahaha...
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Re: Just Sign Already, Harper

Post by bschr682 » Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:22 pm

agrudez wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:51 pm
Less AAV than Machado and 0 opt outs.
Just playing devils advocate here. AAV isn't the be all end all when dealing with an athletic career. Its entirely possible that Harper could have signed a shorter deal with higher AAV or had an opt out or whatever but in the long run would have made less money because the second go round in free agency might have been met with crickets.

At the end of the day the question is really, do we think Harper could have made more than 330 million total in his career from this point forward? In a weird way I think this looks like a Boras loss right now, but in time will end up being a win for him and especially Harper.

I do not think he was gonna make more than 330 if he went shorter or had an opt out and tried this free agency thing again.
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Re: Just Sign Already, Harper

Post by Ted » Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:43 pm

bschr682 wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:22 pm
agrudez wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:51 pm
Less AAV than Machado and 0 opt outs.
Just playing devils advocate here. AAV isn't the be all end all when dealing with an athletic career. Its entirely possible that Harper could have signed a shorter deal with higher AAV or had an opt out or whatever but in the long run would have made less money because the second go round in free agency might have been met with crickets.

At the end of the day the question is really, do we think Harper could have made more than 330 million total in his career from this point forward? In a weird way I think this looks like a Boras loss right now, but in time will end up being a win for him and especially Harper.

I do not think he was gonna make more than 330 if he went shorter or had an opt out and tried this free agency thing again.
I've gone back and forth on this. If we believe (and thats a big if) the Dodgers offered a 45 mil aav over 4 years, he'd have to beat 150 mil at age 30 as a FA to beat this deal. Is that likely? I really have no idea. I kind of think no. Admittedly, I'm not high on Harper. I think he's junk by 32 at the latest. I think he's a 4 win player right now. So, in that light, this deal is a huge win for him and Boras. Do Harper and Boras really know he's not that great? I kind of doubt that was their mindset. If you're buying the "generational talent" or "He's 26 so somehow that means a ten+ year deal makes sense" arguments, I'm not so sure Boras and Harper come out looking that good.

Were I concise, I would have said, Harper got way more than what he's worth and this is a huge win for him. However for the player he and Boras (and a bunch of media hacks) think he is, this is a big loss.
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Re: Just Sign Already, Harper

Post by Ted » Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:45 pm

The thing I'm tired of hearing brought up is people comparing this (and Machado's deal) to ARod's contract adjusted for inflation and complaining that this isn't enough money. Stop it already. ARod was Mike Trout when he signed his deal. Harper and Machado aren't in the same discussion, or even in the same room (or building).
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