Unrealistic!!!!

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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by RonCo » Tue Feb 12, 2019 1:19 pm

Bumstead wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:37 pm

Oooh....the backstroke....love it! Let's be honest, they don't always tell the truth. They are trying to sell a game and money is the forefront of their "game." Who needs a new version of the same game annually? Nobody. It's all about the benjamins....Maybe it wasn't in the beginning, but it is now.
I disagree with at least some of this. But, yes, they do have to sell a game.
The injury thing with update 19 is nutty and yet of all their damn updates, not one of them have addressed all the injuries...weird...how many updates have been equated to the new game they added to OOTP instead of just releasing the game separately...it's ridiculous.
Every time I stick my head into the injury thing--which I have done often--I come out saying "hell, the game seems to have it pretty much right." Take the torn labrum stuff above: The numbers are pretty much right as far as I can tell, even after Ted said there were too many. I'm open to real data, though. Show me data that countermands it, and I'm 100% there. I know that Markus worked with multiple baseball people to get it right, so I really shouldn't be surprised. I agree that it "Feels" like a lot. But the numbers keep coming up right. So the question at hand (which is completely fair) is: "do we want to depress injuries because dealing with their real rates are depressing or bothersome or whatever?" Regardless, Ted's got a reasonable question to wonder if the labels for the injury levels are right or not. That's something I can actually test.

As far as being in Markus's pocket in some fashion, given criticisms I've made in the past, I think that Markus himself would disagree with you. Not that it matters either way.
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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by Bumstead » Tue Feb 12, 2019 1:31 pm

RonCo wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 1:19 pm
Bumstead wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:37 pm

Oooh....the backstroke....love it! Let's be honest, they don't always tell the truth. They are trying to sell a game and money is the forefront of their "game." Who needs a new version of the same game annually? Nobody. It's all about the benjamins....Maybe it wasn't in the beginning, but it is now.
I disagree with at least some of this. But, yes, they do have to sell a game.
The injury thing with update 19 is nutty and yet of all their damn updates, not one of them have addressed all the injuries...weird...how many updates have been equated to the new game they added to OOTP instead of just releasing the game separately...it's ridiculous.
Every time I stick my head into the injury thing--which I have done often--I come out saying "hell, the game seems to have it pretty much right." Take the torn labrum stuff above: The numbers are pretty much right as far as I can tell, even after Ted said there were too many. I'm open to real data, though. Show me data that countermands it, and I'm 100% there. I know that Markus worked with multiple baseball people to get it right, so I really shouldn't be surprised. I agree that it "Feels" like a lot. But the numbers keep coming up right. So the question at hand (which is completely fair) is: "do we want to depress injuries because dealing with their real rates are depressing or bothersome or whatever?" Regardless, Ted's got a reasonable question to wonder if the labels for the injury levels are right or not. That's something I can actually test.

As far as being in Markus's pocket in some fashion, given criticisms I've made in the past, I think that Markus himself would disagree with you. Not that it matters either way.
Right compared to what? MLB 2018? What does that have to do with anything in regards to the BBA? It's 2037...The talent crashing and the unknown DTD stuff is what really irritates me about this particular upgrade (19) or whatever you want to call it. I can't give you real data from 2037, nor do I have any desire to make this league realistic compared to MLB 2018. Apples and oranges. They aren't comparable.

The current frequency of injuries makes building the best team irrelevant. It's all about luck in regards to injuries, not skill at building the best team. Of course, there's always been luck involved with getting through the playoff randomnizer anyway, but now the luck factor is magnified.

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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by RonCo » Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:01 pm

Bumstead wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 1:31 pm

Right compared to what? MLB 2018?
Compared to various snippets of baseball history. This is the hardest part of trying to get the game "right" (comparing anything to data that's real). It's why I'm really interested in Ted's work to get a comparative data sample.
What does that have to do with anything in regards to the BBA? It's 2037...
Well, maybe we're not going to have baseball in real 2037, so ...
The current frequency of injuries makes building the best team irrelevant. It's all about luck in regards to injuries, not skill at building the best team. Of course, there's always been luck involved with getting through the playoff randomnizer anyway, but now the luck factor is magnified.
On one hand we have argument that we have too many dynasties around here, and on the other we have that it's all about injury luck. That kind of hyperbole is fun to throw about, but I think the truth lies in throwing bits of it all together. Yes, you have to be a little lucky to win, and injuries are part of that. I disagree that the guys who win haven't built teams that are easy to consider the best...so I think your comment that injury frequency "makes building the best team irrelevant" is kind of silly. If injuries happen at a rate that is defensible based on real data, then it makes the effort of building the best team exactly as relevant as that effort by the GM of a real team. If that injury rate is too big or small, then it's less or more relevant...but never irrelevant.
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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by Bumstead » Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:33 pm

RonCo wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:01 pm
On one hand we have argument that we have too many dynasties around here, and on the other we have that it's all about injury luck. That kind of hyperbole is fun to throw about, but I think the truth lies in throwing bits of it all together. Yes, you have to be a little lucky to win, and injuries are part of that. I disagree that the guys who win haven't built teams that are easy to consider the best...so I think your comment that injury frequency "makes building the best team irrelevant" is kind of silly. If injuries happen at a rate that is defensible based on real data, then it makes the effort of building the best team exactly as relevant as that effort by the GM of a real team. If that injury rate is too big or small, then it's less or more relevant...but never irrelevant.
Let's use Boise as an example of me being silly. Let's say Boise had built one of, if not the best team in the BBA. Then it had 2 of it's top SP's injured for the year by mid-June and by far their best RP injured for the year by late July. Boise then fails to make the playoffs despite having serviceable replacements...Is that a lack of skill in team-building or bad luck with long term injuries taking over the results? Is this me being silly again or me presenting a possible reality with the current OOTP version? We are playing in a fake league with fake players, please explain what part of this needs to have the same realism as MLB 2018? It's supposed to be fun. What if all those injuries started out as DTD injuries of unknown length (because apparently our team doctors are morons) with very little affect on their performance; so, we decide to play them through these minor injuries (as there are actually players that do play baseball with minor injuries and they don't all die). Then, much to our surprise (or not surprising at all), all these players suffer season ending injuries and Boise misses the playoffs...luck? lack of skill? Me being silly? I'll answer this one: Not being silly at all, just following along on the version 19 train...Fun be damned. I can do everything right with building a team in version 19, but I can't control DTD injury results (this is something OOTP has wrong; they don't work how they should; plus the teams all have doctors and they shouldn't be considered idiots that can't tell how long an injury will last), I can't control ratings crashes (which have now taken over the game) and I can't control players dying (long term injuries) during the season. That takes skill out of the competition. And while this launch toward "reality" launched in versions 17 & 18, it really took off in 19...the DTD stuff is terrible. A team shouldn't have to carry 8 above average SP's on their roster to make it through a season. Where's the fun?

Maybe this has turned into, hey, we don't agree. That's fine. I just find the more markus tries to make the game realistic the less realistic it really is. It's become more like a reality tv show for me. Bring on the drama OOTP, cause that's what you're building...I see a DTD injury and I hit the "place on DL" button as fast as possible. Go ahead and don't do it and call me in the morning..."So Doc, how long you think my strained oblique will last?" "Oh, Timmy, I'm sorry, there's just no way to predict these things." "But you're a doctor." "Yes, Timmy, but I"m an OOTP doctor." There is a way to predict it: 3-5 weeks...I've done it, it's predictable. Now, I'm just going on and on; I will waive the white and flag and forfeit any further debate on it for now; not because I'm wrong, but because it won't go anywhere anyway.

I want you to know that I know how hard you work at your research and I'm not discrediting that in the least.

PS: I have never argued that we have too many dynasties here. We probably do, but so does every other online league.

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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by RonCo » Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:45 pm

Here are the list of Boise players who have had DTD injuries this year--all of them were listed with a duration in the injury report. Which ones went to "unknown" later?

Félix Ávila 2
Gary Schneider 1
José Franco 1
Dave Wilfer 1
Pedro Díaz 1
Pedro Holguín 1
Orlando Zúñiga 1
Tomás Chávez 1
Cris Ríos 2
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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by RonCo » Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:48 pm

That's the dynamic I recall seeing. A d-t-d injury happens, with an associated expected injury duration, then occasionally the duration is listed up to "uncertain." This actually happens in real baseball with real doctors. Human beings heal at different rates that are based on physical make-up and age.

If you're arguing that you prefer to play a game in which you don't need to deal with injury, then that's fine. I fully admit that I prefer a game with a reasonably realistic injury environment.
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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by Bumstead » Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:02 pm

RonCo wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:45 pm
Here are the list of Boise players who have had DTD injuries this year--all of them were listed with a duration in the injury report. Which ones went to "unknown" later?

Félix Ávila 2
Gary Schneider 1
José Franco 1
Dave Wilfer 1
Pedro Díaz 1
Pedro Holguín 1
Orlando Zúñiga 1
Tomás Chávez 1
Cris Ríos 2
To be fair, I'm not sure which league the "Unknown" injuries have been in (I'm in 3 other leagues). I would guess the other leagues, because this team is so bad and with the ratings change at the deadline, and then not being able to trade, I haven't spent a lot of time on it other than covering for my long term injuries and my crashing ratings. That said, I have had at least 5 unknown injury duration in the other 3 leagues combined in the last few months. There is predictability to injuries; they have a general window. They aren't unknown by any stretch of the imagination. Not now and not in 2037. OOTP needs to get that "stuff" correct before flooding it into the game.

I don't mind injuries, but I don't want to spend my time spinning my wheels looking for 3 more SP's throughout the season and another 3 position players. It's not any fun. It's frustrating. I get frustrating all day at my job, why do I want that from a video game? Plus it kills the competition within the league. The "haves" are more dominant because their teams are deeper and the "have nots" are just done when the injuries ram their way through.

I don't know where the fun is with this version 19 but I guess will continue to look for it.

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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by RonCo » Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:23 pm

As far as I know, there are exactly zero BBA players who have had a DTD injury that started as "unknown" duration. All start with an expected duration, and a few get adjusted to "unknown" if they don't heal on time. These happen to real players in real baseball all the time...sometimes lingering all year.

There are currently 8 players in the league with a DtD injury. Seven have duration listed, one is "unknown." That one is California reliever (Edit/Add: he's actually a starter and has been his whole career, so I'm not sure why Ted has him listed as a reliver right now) Jaime Mercado, who has back spasms. Back injuries are notorious for being unpredictable as far as my own bias goes. (I note Mercado's injury was originally listed as going for one week).

As far as how this relates to building good teams...at 28 years old, Mercado also has a 4-season history of back spasms. So as a GM building a team, one should assume you're going to miss a couple weeks of Mercado's time at various points of the season from this point forward, and find a way to build depth for when it happens.

Is that fun?

Well, [opinion = on] to me it's great fun. I'm fine if you don't agree, but that's the answer to why one would want to mimic MLB...because you have fun managing a major league baseball team. Because, yes, I want to win, but mostly I want to manage a team and that means sometimes you lose all your best players to both free agency (LaLoosh, De Castillo, Suarez, and Garcia) and injury (Chavez, Oliver, Osaragi) and weird performance oddities (McNeill). Yes, it sucks in the moment...but it's just a bad beat that you come back from. But this is me. YMMV. [opinion = off]
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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by RonCo » Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:32 pm

I'll also note that Mercado has been throwing over 100 pitches per start pretty much all year except for August 13 when he left a game with DtD back spasms, and two weeks later on August 26th when he left the game with the same back spasm injury that has put him on the DL (with a 1-week injury that blossomed into an "unknown"). He did make a start August 21st in which he threw 104 pitches (acquiring 4 PAP points) and in which he beat Seattle 15-1. So, yeah...to my eyes, Mercado is a case of an abused pitcher (not atrociously abused, but abused nonetheless) with a history of back problems suffering a semi-predictable fate.
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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by RonCo » Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:37 pm

Is that bad injury luck?

I don't think so. In my mind deciding to throw a pitcher more than 100 pitches an outing for a long time is called rolling the dice. You can argue my position all you want, but we've been discussing injuries for a very, very long time. The game uses PAP. We know it uses PAP. To ignore it in your pitcher usage is tempting fate, and when a pitcher dies on you when you do that, it's not just bad luck.
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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by usnspecialist » Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:48 pm

I have not done pitcher data for this season (real world has been crazy, might be able to squeeze it in once u get settled), but if you are <100 for PAP that is hardly abused on the grand scheme of things based on my recollection of past data.
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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by RonCo » Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:51 pm

Among the things that makes this conversation amusing is that Boise is the BBA team that is factually the least injury bitten team in the BBA. I know Ted's argument is more holistic, but California has been 24th least injured team in the league.
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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by RonCo » Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:54 pm

usnspecialist wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:48 pm
I have not done pitcher data for this season (real world has been crazy, might be able to squeeze it in once u get settled), but if you are <100 for PAP that is hardly abused on the grand scheme of things based on my recollection of past data.
> 100

Mercado has thrown more than 100 pitches (but less than 110) every game he's started with the exception of three. Each of those three he left the game with a back problem. So, yes, he's been gently abused by PAP.
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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by usnspecialist » Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:54 pm

I just checked Mercado, he is at 90 PAP for the season (thanks ted for keeping his pitch counts low so it 3aa easy math). I'm on my phone so it would be a pain to check the various spreadsheets over the years, but I would be surprised if that puts him in the top 75 annually and might even be outside top 100. That is not abused at all.
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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by RonCo » Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:56 pm

His total PAP for the year by my eyeball count is 96 points.
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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by usnspecialist » Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:58 pm

RonCo wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:56 pm
His total PAP for the year by my eyeball count is 96 points.
My math may be off (did a quick statsplus glance on my phone) but either way it is less than 100 and my predictions from previous post stand.
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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by RonCo » Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:55 pm

usnspecialist wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:58 pm
RonCo wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:56 pm
His total PAP for the year by my eyeball count is 96 points.
My math may be off (did a quick statsplus glance on my phone) but either way it is less than 100 and my predictions from previous post stand.
You're proving my point about league over-use of pitchers. :)

PAP is not relative to the league. 96 points of abuse is abuse. The fact that many of our GMs abuse pitchers more than Mercado has been abused does not reduce the likelihood that Mercado is going to get injured. Looking at your 2033 and 2034 files suggest that Mercado has been acquiring PAP points at a similar rate for his whole career. From his base stats page, it actually _looks_ like he's been throwing at this rate since he was 21. If he's picking up 50-100 points a year, he's at 500-900 points cumulative right now, and still kind of young.

That said, Mercado has yet to be really "hurt." It's all been ticky-tack stuff to date. But I'd look at him as a candidate for trouble as he get older.


- Pitchers who get "0" PAP have an X% chance of getting injured.
- Pitchers who get "100" PAP have an X+Y% chance of getting injured.
- Pitchers who get "500" PAP have an X+Y+Z% chance of getting injured.


So when you say Mercado has not been abused at all, either I just don't know what PAP is or you're living in a fantasy world of your own making.
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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by RonCo » Tue Feb 12, 2019 5:17 pm

Note that I'm not saying we shouldn't ever abuse our pitchers. I'm saying it's a trade-off, and when we decide to roll the dice we're adjusting the probabilities of future problems up.

I've mentioned often how I babied LaLoosh and Chavez's pitch counts in the 4-man rotation, but I fully admit that in certain year's we've ridden both of them harder when we needed to. Never quite up to where some folks have, but I've gone up into the 115-120 range on rare occasions. So (1) some of LaLoosh's injury this year could possibly be due to me, and some could be due to Sean's much higher usage profile, and some could be just random. and (2) Chavez's injury this year could be partially because of some minor abuse I put on him last year (I've been pretty careful with him in the years prior...guessing less than 30-40 points a year).
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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by usnspecialist » Tue Feb 12, 2019 5:23 pm

RonCo wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:55 pm
usnspecialist wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:58 pm
RonCo wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:56 pm
His total PAP for the year by my eyeball count is 96 points.
My math may be off (did a quick statsplus glance on my phone) but either way it is less than 100 and my predictions from previous post stand.
You're proving my point about league over-use of pitchers. :)

PAP is not relative to the league. 96 points of abuse is abuse. The fact that many of our GMs abuse pitchers more than Mercado has been abused does not reduce the likelihood that Mercado is going to get injured. Looking at your 2033 and 2034 files suggest that Mercado has been acquiring PAP points at a similar rate for his whole career. From his base stats page, it actually _looks_ like he's been throwing at this rate since he was 21. If he's picking up 50-100 points a year, he's at 500-900 points cumulative right now, and still kind of young.

That said, Mercado has yet to be really "hurt." It's all been ticky-tack stuff to date. But I'd look at him as a candidate for trouble as he get older.


- Pitchers who get "0" PAP have an X% chance of getting injured.
- Pitchers who get "100" PAP have an X+Y% chance of getting injured.
- Pitchers who get "500" PAP have an X+Y+Z% chance of getting injured.


So when you say Mercado has not been abused at all, either I just don't know what PAP is or you're living in a fantasy world of your own making.
I was wondering when condescending and know it all Ron would surface, it has been awhile.

I was referring to the relative amount that Mercado has been abused, and there are a great number of pitchers with higher numbers and lower injury history.

P.S

The BBA is pretty much a fantasy world of our own making in case you hadn't noticed.
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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by RonCo » Tue Feb 12, 2019 5:37 pm

usnspecialist wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 5:23 pm
I was referring to the relative amount that Mercado has been abused, and there are a great number of pitchers with higher numbers and lower injury history.
Sorry if that was prickly. There are no certainties. But it seems important, in this discussion of injuries and randomness and whether there are things we can do to mitigate risk, to be clear that abuse is abuse, and that this is something we can control (to the degree we can adjust odds).
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