Unrealistic!!!!

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Unrealistic!!!!

Post by recte44 » Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:35 pm

Francisco Lindor Out Seven To Nine Weeks Due To Calf Strain

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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by RonCo » Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:41 pm

On other words, he doesn't want to deal with spring training? :headscratch:
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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by Ted » Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:37 pm

What's your point? Player in real life get hurt? Duh. I don't think anyone ever argued that injuries don't happen.
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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by Ted » Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:24 pm

So I'm tired of arguing about this. I'm collecting data. MLB had 34,126 days on the DL last year. There were 24 TJ's and 5 major shoulder surgeries (that last one seems low, but I'll get better MLB data before I publish my results.)

I'm halfway through spring training, and we are at 2,316 anticipated days on the DL. This does not count any DTD injuries, most of which we are forced to DL because the player never gets better if we don't. Even not counting those, we are on pace for just under 28,000 days of DL time caused during the six months of the season. We are almost certainly going to destroy the shoulder surgery total. I think we might be a tad under on Tommy John. There are a handful of players injured during the offseason, and some MLB DL time "starts" in the offseason as players have surgery after the season. We don't have that, so it will be a little off. However, considering that we are supposed to be under the MLB injury rate, but we are actually on pace for it (more on that below), I'd say OOTP needs to rework their injury models. Another bit of early feedback here is that there seem to be too many "running the bases/collisions" type injuries.

Also, more importantly, the 2300 days of DL time from the first half of spring training include no DL stints from DTD injuries. Well over 80% of the injuries I've compiled so far are DTD. They are shorter, but if we say half of those end up on the DL for one week, which I think is conservative, we get another 400 or so days of DL time. With that we are on pace for 32,400 days of DL time during the season.

Now, halfway through spring training is such a small portion of the total that projecting from here could be very wrong. I also don't know if the types of injuries suffered in spring are coded to be different than regular season. However, my gut feeling is that as the season progresses, we are actually seeing more long term injuries and I expect this number to increase.

I'm hoping to have this done by the end of next week. Basically making a database by hand here because I don't know a better way to do it.
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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by bschr682 » Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:28 pm

unless things have changed, which they certainly could have, the game will try to curtail talent bloat with injuries followed by the lump hammer. So BBA injuries will definitely be higher than real life MLB

:2cents:
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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by Ted » Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:31 pm

bschr682 wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:28 pm
unless things have changed, which they certainly could have, the game will try to curtail talent bloat with injuries followed by the lump hammer. So BBA injuries will definitely be higher than real life MLB

:2cents:
Yeah, I was wondering about that too, but Ron just said he received feedback from the devs that the game engine does not use injuries to cull the talent pool. Correct me if I'm wrong, Ron.
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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by GoldenOne » Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:42 pm

Are you including players that were released? Maeda tore his rotator cuff in his first spring training start and got released instead of spending the last year of his contract on the DL.
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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by Ted » Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:43 pm

GoldenOne wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:42 pm
Are you including players that were released? Maeda tore his rotator cuff in his first spring training start and got released instead of spending the last year of his contract on the DL.
I'm going sim by sim and just making a database of every injury listed, categorizing them, and getting totals. I'm planning on not including an "recovery delayed" types, as I'm using the projected injury time as days lost, and I suppose some players could come back sooner. By not including DL recovery extensions, I hope to have a conservative estimate of time lost. I realize that this won't exactly represent DL time, but I haven't really noticed guys coming back faster than expected much.
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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by Ted » Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:59 pm

And Ron just gave me all the injury data from this year. w00t. Dinner time now, but I'll get back to this tomorrow. No more data entry! Yay! Should have some results this weekend.
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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by usnspecialist » Fri Feb 08, 2019 10:08 pm

Ted joining the wonderful world of Brewster spreadsheets. Welcome to the club.
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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by jiminyhopkins » Fri Feb 08, 2019 10:09 pm

I sense a bit of sarcasm from ye olde commishe.



Changing ratings in the middle of the season? UNREALISTIC!!!!!! :angry:
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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by Ted » Fri Feb 08, 2019 10:11 pm

jiminyhopkins wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 10:09 pm
I sense a bit of sarcasm from ye olde commishe.



Changing ratings in the middle of the season? UNREALISTIC!!!!!! :angry:
I know it's sarcasm. I'm just touchy. Sorry Recte.
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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by RonCo » Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:16 am

Ted wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:31 pm
bschr682 wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:28 pm
unless things have changed, which they certainly could have, the game will try to curtail talent bloat with injuries followed by the lump hammer. So BBA injuries will definitely be higher than real life MLB

:2cents:
Yeah, I was wondering about that too, but Ron just said he received feedback from the devs that the game engine does not use injuries to cull the talent pool. Correct me if I'm wrong, Ron.
That's true. However, I admit I'm still not sure I believe it. I've had several cases in the past where the development team says one thing but data says another. If I get some time, maybe I'll concoct a controlled experiment to see if I can get data that either confirms or denies.
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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by RonCo » Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:31 am

Ted wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:24 pm
So I'm tired of arguing about this. I'm collecting data. MLB had 34,126 days on the DL last year. There were 24 TJ's and 5 major shoulder surgeries (that last one seems low, but I'll get better MLB data before I publish my results.)

I'm halfway through spring training, and we are at 2,316 anticipated days on the DL. This does not count any DTD injuries, most of which we are forced to DL because the player never gets better if we don't. Even not counting those, we are on pace for just under 28,000 days of DL time caused during the six months of the season. We are almost certainly going to destroy the shoulder surgery total. I think we might be a tad under on Tommy John. There are a handful of players injured during the offseason, and some MLB DL time "starts" in the offseason as players have surgery after the season. We don't have that, so it will be a little off. However, considering that we are supposed to be under the MLB injury rate, but we are actually on pace for it (more on that below), I'd say OOTP needs to rework their injury models. Another bit of early feedback here is that there seem to be too many "running the bases/collisions" type injuries.

Also, more importantly, the 2300 days of DL time from the first half of spring training include no DL stints from DTD injuries. Well over 80% of the injuries I've compiled so far are DTD. They are shorter, but if we say half of those end up on the DL for one week, which I think is conservative, we get another 400 or so days of DL time. With that we are on pace for 32,400 days of DL time during the season.

Now, halfway through spring training is such a small portion of the total that projecting from here could be very wrong. I also don't know if the types of injuries suffered in spring are coded to be different than regular season. However, my gut feeling is that as the season progresses, we are actually seeing more long term injuries and I expect this number to increase.

I'm hoping to have this done by the end of next week. Basically making a database by hand here because I don't know a better way to do it.
Doing a comparison to MLB is the best way to go. I think you'll find that the meat grinder we've got going on right now is actually quite similar. Probably not perfectly aligned but similar.

I did the v17 > v18 data in the media guide back a bit ago that showed the large (and proper, IMHO) jump in injury types and timing (ST has a lot of bumps and bruises, for example). I I did some comparison earlier with this season's data...and will update it when we get to the end of the year. But I don't have any real MLB comparison.

Like all things OOTP, too, however, I think it's important to realize that (I think) OOTP isn't really clamping injuries to a number. Instead, it's using the players in the league (their injury ratings, how often they play, and their fatigue ratings) to determine instantaneous chances of injury. With arm injuries, for example: MLB's injury profile is being created in a world where it is quite rare that pitchers throw more than 100-110 pitches in an outing. In BBA, we still have a lot of GMs who are not controlling for pitch counts. This builds up PAP. The injury theory of PAP says that we're creating time bombs--that abused pitchers will be injured more often after said abuse, but that injury could well be weeks, months, or even years afterward. I wrote my Osaragi injury article based on that premise...is it certain that Osaragi's injury is due to his abuse in SFB's organization? No. Is it possible Osaragi's injury is related to the abuse he got in Randy's organization? Yes, it is.

(The generic) you should actually take that into account when you deal for pitchers, for example. Vancouver's Guerrero is another example. Joe pitched him to the nubs as a rookie. Will he get injured? No idea...though he had a brief stint of elbow inflammation this year at age 24.

Anyway, the bottom line is that in the OOTP model, if our injury level is higher than MLB--especially pitching injuries--it's also possible that the difference is on us as much as it is the model.

Or it could be random chance.

Or it could be the model is wrong.

It's a really complex question at its heart.
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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by RonCo » Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:33 am

Really, I should just write a danged script to parse injury reports to do an update every year.
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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by Ted » Sat Feb 09, 2019 11:55 am

A big part of my supposition that injuries is are not working as intended is that we are not using the "realistic" setting for injuries, and theey're stil happening at a fairly brisk clip. At least this is what I believe Recte has said. What if we changed to that? We're currently looking pretty similar to MLB (yes based on only two weeks spring training for a sample, with the higher rust that entails), on a lower than modern baseball injury setting. I wonder if they changed too many variables at once and it's catching up now. It seems that in 18 both base injury rates and probability of future injury based on past injury were increased. And it seems it was further tweaked in 19. Or perhaps we're just snowballing as the pitcher abuse, prior injury, etc have piled up. I've seen some forum posts where people that used to play on the very high "realistic" injury setting had injury rates so high they couldn't field teams. Or maybe I'll find out we're actually still well below real injury rates. Well see when I get done sorting stuff, which I hope to have finished by tomorrow.
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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by RonCo » Sat Feb 09, 2019 2:03 pm

Check your email, Ted.
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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by RonCo » Sat Feb 09, 2019 4:46 pm

A couple interesting charts from BBA data...


2037-Inj-Pit-feb-sep.PNG
2037-Inj-Act-Pos-Feb-Sep.PNG
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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by RonCo » Sat Feb 09, 2019 4:56 pm

Note the impact of Spring Training on DTD injuries (March):

Code: Select all

Injuries by Month									
	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	All
Hitters									
DTD	9	58	49	63	57	49	31	7	323
OUT	3	23	15	23	22	19	11	4	120
All	12	81	64	86	79	68	42	11	443
									
Pitchers									
CE		1							1
DTD	4	67	50	39	60	45	44	9	318
OUT	8	31	29	33	16	24	17	4	162
All	12	99	79	72	76	69	61	13	481

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Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by RonCo » Sat Feb 09, 2019 5:45 pm

Ooooo....now I'm having some real fun...

Code: Select all

Pitcher Injuries				
				
Lvl	CE	DTD	OUT	All
BBA	1	318	162	481
AAA	1	237	117	355
AA		259	118	377
A		305	115	420
SA		139	68	207
R	1	148	54	203

Tot	3	1406	634	2043

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