Unrealistic!!!!

Discuss current Major League Baseball here.
User avatar
Ted
General Manager
Posts: 4561
Joined: Thu Jun 04, 2015 2:50 pm
Has thanked: 109 times
Been thanked: 79 times

Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by Ted » Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:01 pm

I mean, if you just want to do this for me ...
Ted Schmidt
California Crusaders (2021-present)
Image

User avatar
RonCo
League Director
Posts: 10144
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 201 times
Been thanked: 100 times

Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by RonCo » Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:59 pm

The most important part is some form of comparison to what's real.
Yellow Springs Nine
Playoff Regular, Landis Averse

User avatar
Ted
General Manager
Posts: 4561
Joined: Thu Jun 04, 2015 2:50 pm
Has thanked: 109 times
Been thanked: 79 times

Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by Ted » Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:48 am

RonCo wrote:
Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:59 pm
The most important part is some form of comparison to what's real.
Yeah, and this is hard to figure out. You can get gross DL days, and surgeries performed. But the categorization of stuff is tough. There are some decent resources though. I'll keep working on it.
Ted Schmidt
California Crusaders (2021-present)
Image

User avatar
RonCo
League Director
Posts: 10144
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 201 times
Been thanked: 100 times

Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by RonCo » Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:04 am

Welcome to the world of beta testing the "correctness" of the injury algorithm.

I can keep dropping data here, but, to be honest when I ask whether things look right at the top level, I struggle tp say they look terrible (for example, BBA teams are, on average, loosing just under two pitchers per level to 2+ month injuries (less than 1 per in SA/R). And that feels big because we'll each have about ten (BBA. AAA, AA, A = 8...SA, R = 2, 8+2 = 10). Of course, we've got about 90 pitchers in our organization, so that's about 11%. And not all those are mega-bad 9-14 moths guys. If you asked if it was reasonable to think that 11% of pitchers might get really hurt in any year, I'd probably say that felt a touch high,but I would argue too hard.

But the magic is to get a real study of injury prevalence in the majors/minors in some form that is at least semi-comparable. Otherwise all you have to go by is gut feel, which, when you're on the high side of average is mostly going to be heartburn.

So, yes, I've done a bit of looking at real injury rates, but never come up with anything that I felt great with...so given your analytical approach, I'm really interested in pumping you full of data and seeing what I can learn. :)

I'll have another fun chart in a minute that breaks pitcher injuries down by level.
Yellow Springs Nine
Playoff Regular, Landis Averse

User avatar
RonCo
League Director
Posts: 10144
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 201 times
Been thanked: 100 times

Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by RonCo » Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:23 am

Here’s the BBA universe wide when it come to big injuries and pitchers. The big hitters, naturally, are shoulders and elbows. To date, across all six levels we’ve had these big hitters:

Shoulder
Labrum Injuries: 41 (25 torn)
Rotator Cuffs: 24 (21 torn)
Shoulder Inflammation: 22

Elbow
UCL: 38 (13 Torn, 13, partially, 12 Ruptured)
Torn Flexor Tendon: 20
Ligament: 14 (7 torn, 7 reconstructed)
Bone Chips: 10 (9 requiring surgery)
Elbow Fracture: 6
Elbow inflammation/Tendonitis: 6

That’s a lot, but again, it’s over 6 levels, and the overall totals don’t seem massively out of whack when you look at how they are scattered across levels. If there’s something you can find to show how close or far off these are from “real” that would be awesome.

2037-Inj-big-Pit-Lvl.PNG
Yellow Springs Nine
Playoff Regular, Landis Averse

User avatar
7teen
General Manager
Posts: 6760
Joined: Sun Apr 04, 2010 7:59 am
Has thanked: 15 times
Been thanked: 34 times

Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by 7teen » Sun Feb 10, 2019 11:01 am

Just out of curiosity, but why do we have to mirror MLB?

It’s online basebal. Yes, some sense of realism is what makes it fun. We all get to feel like we are running a real life organization. But at the end of the day, it’s simulated, video game baseball.

Raider swiping 150 bases a year isn’t realistic but damn I have fun watching reading about him doing it.
Chris Wilson

LB Surfers
FL Pac Champs: '95

Madison Wolves
JL MW Champs: '99 to 2009, '17, '20, '21
JL Wildcard: '12
JL Champs: '01, '04, '09, '12
FL Heartland Champs: '32
FL Wildcard: '31, ‘33
MBWBA Champs: '04, '09

Image

User avatar
RonCo
League Director
Posts: 10144
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 201 times
Been thanked: 100 times

Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by RonCo » Sun Feb 10, 2019 11:06 am

I agree. There are two questions: (1) is it realistic, and (2) is it fun. I admit to having more fun when the world is closer to realistic so we're dealing with semi-real world problems, but I'm fine with some variance and YMMV...and, yes, it's fun to see Raider run.
Yellow Springs Nine
Playoff Regular, Landis Averse

User avatar
Ted
General Manager
Posts: 4561
Joined: Thu Jun 04, 2015 2:50 pm
Has thanked: 109 times
Been thanked: 79 times

Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by Ted » Sun Feb 10, 2019 11:18 am

I actually don't think we have to mirror MLB at all when it comes to injuries. I'd just like to know where we are. The last couple versions have seen a big change in how injuries are handled, and it just doesn't feel right to me. It's not so much a quantity as it is nature and timing, and future impact. Also, as you are all probably aware, I'm not sure these changes have made the experience of running a franchise better. Specifically the worst part is how one injury seems to snowball into another, then a major one, then the guy lumps, then he's done. I get that this may be more realistic, but I don't think it's a good fit for people trying to enjoy a fair, competitive environment.
Ted Schmidt
California Crusaders (2021-present)
Image

User avatar
agrudez
General Manager
Posts: 7657
Joined: Tue Nov 20, 2012 10:30 am
Has thanked: 18 times
Been thanked: 39 times

Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by agrudez » Mon Feb 11, 2019 10:30 am

7teen wrote:
Sun Feb 10, 2019 11:01 am
It’s online basebal. Yes, some sense of realism is what makes it fun. We all get to feel like we are running a real life organization. But at the end of the day, it’s simulated, video game baseball.
The problem that runs through many of these conversations is that everyone has a different opinion of what is 'fun', though. I'm well documented on the record that I think having to react to injuries is 'fun' to me (with the one exception of CEIs - I refuse to believe that losing a talented young player forever through no fault of your own is anyone's definition of 'fun'), so I wouldn't enjoy having a "low" amount of injuries. Without having many reasonable ways to objectively define what "low" means is where comparisons to MLB and discussions of 'realism' come in. Since it's a tangible data point, it becomes facile to say <MLB = "low", <<MLB = "very low", =MLB = "medium", etc. I'm glad someone is doing this leg work if for no other reason than to ground future discussions on the subject with something tangible.
League Director: Kyle “agrudez” Stever*
*Also serves as chief muckraker
-Ron, 2025 media guide

Image

User avatar
Ted
General Manager
Posts: 4561
Joined: Thu Jun 04, 2015 2:50 pm
Has thanked: 109 times
Been thanked: 79 times

Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by Ted » Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:11 am

agrudez wrote:
Mon Feb 11, 2019 10:30 am
7teen wrote:
Sun Feb 10, 2019 11:01 am
It’s online basebal. Yes, some sense of realism is what makes it fun. We all get to feel like we are running a real life organization. But at the end of the day, it’s simulated, video game baseball.
The problem that runs through many of these conversations is that everyone has a different opinion of what is 'fun', though. I'm well documented on the record that I think having to react to injuries is 'fun' to me (with the one exception of CEIs - I refuse to believe that losing a talented young player forever through no fault of your own is anyone's definition of 'fun'), so I wouldn't enjoy having a "low" amount of injuries. Without having many reasonable ways to objectively define what "low" means is where comparisons to MLB and discussions of 'realism' come in. Since it's a tangible data point, it becomes facile to say <MLB = "low", <<MLB = "very low", =MLB = "medium", etc. I'm glad someone is doing this leg work if for no other reason than to ground future discussions on the subject with something tangible.
Yeah, it's nice to actually see. T Hanks Ron. I'm really haven;t been motivated much to get the rest of this done the way I want, but I'll be sitting in airports a lot soon, so hopefully that will make me bored enough to finish digging through MLB injury numbers. The early results are that we are significant lower in "UCL" injuries. The problem is that finding data on the "other" elbow injuries is difficult. However, our shoulder injury rate seems like 2-3 (At least, maybe 4-5 times) higher than real baseball. In general, what I'm seeing (and this is early so I may not have found or might not be able to find what I need on non big major surgery injuries), but it seems OOTP has fewer of the injuries that actually happen in some cases, and more of the ones that don't.)


I echo the idea Chris has about being "realistic" not necessarily being the best goal every time. Also, regarding out previous conversation and your statements here about CEI's, I think I've realize why I'm so up in arms with this. I hate CEI's as much as you do, for the same reasons. And I think that's why I hate how injuries are handled in 18 and 19. Since 18, when the game started tracking injuries better, added more DTD stuff, etc, there has been a much higher propensity to have evolution of a minor injury to a serious one, and have previous injury be more predictive of future injury. In essence, I feel like we have added a bunch of CEI's. It's not exactly the same as a talented young guy just disappearing from your roster, but the end result is the same. It's just stretched out over 3-4 seasons. Draft a guy, had elbow soreness in his first month. Doesn't develop due to lack of PT. Next season, has ucl, either doesn't develop or lumps. Next season, plays as a diminished prospect, multiple DL stints. Next season, tears ucl again, lumps, done. This (or some other variant) has happened to me with between 5 and 10 pitchers since 17, and more frequently in 19 than 18. I've seen it over and over on other teams. We've had much more, "Can't stay healthy" type players. Before, what were the odds of losing your pitching staff multiple years in a row? This is basically year three for Marko. Were I Randy, with San Fernando, I'd look to trade Ernie Kinney and Feliciano Rafael. This IS a more realistic model. But to me, it's not a good one for competition in an online baseball league. I don't mind having depth and dealing with injuries. I don't like watching all your players lump to oblivion, or not develop in the first place because they can't get on the field. To me, that's no fun, and is just painful, stretched out version of a CEI.
Ted Schmidt
California Crusaders (2021-present)
Image

User avatar
Ted
General Manager
Posts: 4561
Joined: Thu Jun 04, 2015 2:50 pm
Has thanked: 109 times
Been thanked: 79 times

Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by Ted » Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:26 am

Regarding my last post, the problem that I see is that even if you agree with me, there's no much you can do about it. If OOTP has embraced a more "realistic" model in terms of development and progression of injuries, well then that's that. Even turning injury frequency down probably won't matter as much, because it seems the most predictive factor for future injury is previous injury. It's just a question of how many players you want to lose. If you turn it down a lot, it becomes even more like CEI's, in that only a handful of teams will be affected (because fewer players will have the initial injuries). If you leave it alone or turn it up, we all get to watch our pitchers get injured and lump. More even distribution, but more headaches for everyone, and more "non fun". Even if you are one of the people who enjoys managing through injuries (which really isn't that crazy. I get it), I doubt that really any of us enjoy seeing a guy get hurt, knowing there's a really good chance that's the beginning of the end for him.
Ted Schmidt
California Crusaders (2021-present)
Image

User avatar
Spiccoli
General Manager
Posts: 986
Joined: Fri Jun 23, 2017 4:24 pm
Has thanked: 56 times
Been thanked: 29 times

Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by Spiccoli » Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:14 am

agrudez wrote:
Mon Feb 11, 2019 10:30 am
7teen wrote:
Sun Feb 10, 2019 11:01 am
It’s online basebal. Yes, some sense of realism is what makes it fun. We all get to feel like we are running a real life organization. But at the end of the day, it’s simulated, video game baseball.
The problem that runs through many of these conversations is that everyone has a different opinion of what is 'fun', though. I'm well documented on the record that I think having to react to injuries is 'fun' to me (with the one exception of CEIs - I refuse to believe that losing a talented young player forever through no fault of your own is anyone's definition of 'fun'), so I wouldn't enjoy having a "low" amount of injuries. Without having many reasonable ways to objectively define what "low" means is where comparisons to MLB and discussions of 'realism' come in. Since it's a tangible data point, it becomes facile to say <MLB = "low", <<MLB = "very low", =MLB = "medium", etc. I'm glad someone is doing this leg work if for no other reason than to ground future discussions on the subject with something tangible.
I agree with this.

Working around injuries is part of the game... It's just disheartening to see a pitcher go out with a 12-15 month injury though. Even if it's "Realistic".

I guess the "Fun" vs "Realistic" will always be a tough debate. I like seeing the best players in the game going each other and not seeing them on the DL... not just my guys.

I'll be honest, I don't know what the answer is... lol. Any change always has unexpected repercussions... like making draft classes deeper.

User avatar
Bumstead
General Manager
Posts: 958
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2016 9:06 pm
Has thanked: 42 times
Been thanked: 20 times

Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by Bumstead » Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:25 am

Did someone say that they did not necessarily believe something the developers have said? What? I can't find the money meme...That's all I have to say about that...

User avatar
RonCo
League Director
Posts: 10144
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 201 times
Been thanked: 100 times

Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by RonCo » Tue Feb 12, 2019 11:41 am

I'm the one who said you can't always believer everything the devs say. That's not meant to be pointed. It's complex code. Sometimes they think they've done one thing when they've actually done something a little different. Or sometimes there's a bug they haven't found or tested well enough.

-----------------

I admit I don't like hard-coded CEI, but I _do_ like CEI. Its just that in my world they shouldn't just be labelled as CEI. They should take time to discover, time that could include come-back attempts that fail. I thought at one point we had the ability to turn off hard/shut-down CEI, but maybe that's my imagination. Regardless, OOTP's injury algorthim does seem to have these longer tail injuries embedded--though sometimes I suppose the player never really retires because of it. ... shrug.

-----------------

I generally disgree with Ted's view on the strings of injuries. Though, yes, I suppose it's about what you find "fun." I'm 90% sure that DTD injuries do not really drive more injuries (and I'm also 90% sure that DTD injuries heal just fine most of the time, but I'd need systemic testing to prove it, so right now it's all opinion based on anectodes).

-----------------

I think the shoulder injuries might be too much. That said, the sample size of one year is uncertain. The fact regarding versions is that, in looking at v 17, 18, and 19 data, I'm not sure I can see any change at all in the overall rates of lost time injuries so far (all the real difference is in DTD). It's certainly possible that we've had a year where shoulder injuries raised. That said, I fall back on our GMs propensity to over-use pitchers, too, despite certain warnings. SFB's young staff of a few years back were massively abused, just for the most openly obvious example, and now are suffering the long tail of its result. That's not really an OOTP thing. That's a GM thing.

That said, few GMs pay much attention to injury history when they trade for pitchers. So that's a way that some guys could try to take advantage of unaware GMs, I suppose. Note: I knew Osaragi's history was coming with him, but was hoping I could drop him to normal usage and skate by. His eventual UCL surprised me none, though. It was a calculated risk I took to get him, and the risk blew up on me. If I were a real life team, I'd have taken out an insurance policy on him when I signed him.

------------------

Regardless, now that I have a script that can test and analyze injury rates, I'll see if I can take some time this next weekend or two to determine how different each setting is. I'll funnel this to the development folks, of course, and if it seems appropriate, I'll post it here (or in the GB section or whatever, as seems appropriate) so Matt can use it to drive decisions on what the BBA level should be.
Yellow Springs Nine
Playoff Regular, Landis Averse

User avatar
RonCo
League Director
Posts: 10144
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 201 times
Been thanked: 100 times

Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by RonCo » Tue Feb 12, 2019 11:47 am

https://slate.com/culture/2004/05/baseb ... njury.html : "Of the 36 major-league hurlers diagnosed with labrum tears in the last five years" (that's 7 per year ... ours is 8 this year )
Yellow Springs Nine
Playoff Regular, Landis Averse

User avatar
RonCo
League Director
Posts: 10144
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 201 times
Been thanked: 100 times

Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by RonCo » Tue Feb 12, 2019 11:59 am

Another interesting article, with tons of other links: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news ... -kill-him/
Yellow Springs Nine
Playoff Regular, Landis Averse

User avatar
Bumstead
General Manager
Posts: 958
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2016 9:06 pm
Has thanked: 42 times
Been thanked: 20 times

Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by Bumstead » Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:37 pm

RonCo wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 11:41 am
I'm the one who said you can't always believer everything the devs say. That's not meant to be pointed. It's complex code. Sometimes they think they've done one thing when they've actually done something a little different. Or sometimes there's a bug they haven't found or tested well enough.
Oooh....the backstroke....love it! Let's be honest, they don't always tell the truth. They are trying to sell a game and money is the forefront of their "game." Who needs a new version of the same game annually? Nobody. It's all about the benjamins....Maybe it wasn't in the beginning, but it is now. The injury thing with update 19 is nutty and yet of all their damn updates, not one of them have addressed all the injuries...weird...how many updates have been equated to the new game they added to OOTP instead of just releasing the game separately...it's ridiculous. I know some of you, and recte, are strict followers of Marcus, et all, but I've grown weary of the money grab annually. I will still buy it just to stay in this league I guess but it's just a money grab. OOTP19 has been a deprovement in my humble opinion. OOTP19 is a fun-sucker...there's no reason for that in a video game.

The Golf Club has now taken a similar approach, although my biggest issue with that was that my internet wasn't good enough to keep it from glitching during play so I just quit it altogether.

User avatar
7teen
General Manager
Posts: 6760
Joined: Sun Apr 04, 2010 7:59 am
Has thanked: 15 times
Been thanked: 34 times

Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by 7teen » Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:55 pm

Bumstead wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:37 pm

The Golf Club has now taken a similar approach, although my biggest issue with that was that my internet wasn't good enough to keep it from glitching during play so I just quit it altogether.
Yeah you sucked me into that and now I can't get out! Granted I've never had the glitching issue as a major problem and I don't have internet. Just use my phone hotspot now.

I've recently climbed down the rabbit hole of designing some courses. Took forever to figure it out but that's becoming more fun for me as well.
Chris Wilson

LB Surfers
FL Pac Champs: '95

Madison Wolves
JL MW Champs: '99 to 2009, '17, '20, '21
JL Wildcard: '12
JL Champs: '01, '04, '09, '12
FL Heartland Champs: '32
FL Wildcard: '31, ‘33
MBWBA Champs: '04, '09

Image

User avatar
Bumstead
General Manager
Posts: 958
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2016 9:06 pm
Has thanked: 42 times
Been thanked: 20 times

Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by Bumstead » Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:57 pm

RonCo wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 11:41 am
I think the shoulder injuries might be too much. That said, the sample size of one year is uncertain. The fact regarding versions is that, in looking at v 17, 18, and 19 data, I'm not sure I can see any change at all in the overall rates of lost time injuries so far (all the real difference is in DTD). It's certainly possible that we've had a year where shoulder injuries raised. That said, I fall back on our GMs propensity to over-use pitchers, too, despite certain warnings. SFB's young staff of a few years back were massively abused, just for the most openly obvious example, and now are suffering the long tail of its result. That's not really an OOTP thing. That's a GM thing.

That said, few GMs pay much attention to injury history when they trade for pitchers. So that's a way that some guys could try to take advantage of unaware GMs, I suppose. Note: I knew Osaragi's history was coming with him, but was hoping I could drop him to normal usage and skate by. His eventual UCL surprised me none, though. It was a calculated risk I took to get him, and the risk blew up on me. If I were a real life team, I'd have taken out an insurance policy on him when I signed him.
As to the bolded part, this is false. It's an OOTP thing. Markus has been building this into OOTP version by version and now it's a real issue. In the past one could go with a 4 man rotation for 2 months without repercussions. Is that realistic? To what? 50's MLB? Yes. 2000's MLB? I don't know. Who cares? I'm playing a fictional fake baseball video game with fake players...How do we know what the effects of pitch counts will be in 2037? It's 2018...doctors keep getting better; of course, admittedly, humans keep becoming bigger weenies...but who knows? Why make the video game less fun?

These unknown DTD injuries are ridiculous. I mean, I just put them on the DL because otherwise my player dies a slow death and his ratings crash...lot's of fun. And what's with the ratings all crashing? First it was the movement rating and now all pitchers are dying...more fun...That's what it will be like in 2037 and beyond? Players will develop when they are 24 and be done when they are 28? It's not a GM thing, it's an OOTP thing.

I think the best way to play the game is to put injuries on "very low" until the fun-sucker relents...why not have an enjoyable game instead of just a frustrating game? There's no answer to this I suppose. I mean, when you have a sport like bowling that next year is going to institute rules to lower bowling averages for a sport that continues to lose people, then why complain about a video game that produces a new game every year to pad the vaults and insists on making the game less fun with shouts of making it more "realistic?" Why should I be surprised?

User avatar
Bumstead
General Manager
Posts: 958
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2016 9:06 pm
Has thanked: 42 times
Been thanked: 20 times

Re: Unrealistic!!!!

Post by Bumstead » Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:59 pm

7teen wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:55 pm
Bumstead wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:37 pm

The Golf Club has now taken a similar approach, although my biggest issue with that was that my internet wasn't good enough to keep it from glitching during play so I just quit it altogether.
Yeah you sucked me into that and now I can't get out! Granted I've never had the glitching issue as a major problem and I don't have internet. Just use my phone hotspot now.

I've recently climbed down the rabbit hole of designing some courses. Took forever to figure it out but that's becoming more fun for me as well.
Yeah, I was getting pretty good at the old game and then suddenly with the new game, half my swings glitched on X-Box....My internet sucks where I live now...oh well, that was definitely a time sucker....I do miss playing the tournaments for sure!

Post Reply Previous topicNext topic

Return to “MLB Talk”