Ted Gripes About the Dev Engine More

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Re: Ted Gripes About the Dev Engine More

Post by Ted » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:10 pm

Ron, thanks. That looks a lot better than I expected to see. I think. The one question I always have is "is the the sample I want." I think it is. I'd of course, love to see some capture of the incidents as individual events rather than a retrospective sampling, but I think that's near impossible to get. The one question I have is would this look notably different if we removed players who had increased their control from this sample. Basically to removed players OOTP has decided are bumpers.

I feel, and again maybe I'm wrong, that OOTP selects certain players to bump or lump repeatedly. OR there is a part of the dev engine where once a player changes a talent, they are more likely to continue to change the talent. This could be some sort of bias, but it just seems strange how there are some guys who lump to nothing or bump to become stars, and so many who have little to no ratings change as they develop. The game seems absent a middle ground of guys who have a modest change to talents.

My take, and it may be incorrect, is that velocity increases are treated differently than other stat increases for pitchers. Velocity improvement is exceedingly common comparatively. But to lump in players who are improving other stats with velo increase may muddy the water when trying to figure out what OOTP does to the HR rate rating with an isolated velo increase.

I think this sample is big enough to say it doesn't matter overall, at least. And again, I appreciate all the effort you've put into answering this question. Not trying to pick nits.
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Re: Ted Gripes About the Dev Engine More

Post by Ted » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:15 pm

Also, you make a very good point about our impression of MLB players being contaminated by both selection and survivor bias. It is entirely possible that kids in the minors become more homer prone when gaining velo. Based on how the physics of throwing a baseball work and how we literally never hear about a prospect throwing "too hard", I think that is less likely.

It's also hard to compare, because OOTP prospects start throwing much slower and have crazy gains compared to real life and end up throwing harder than their real life counterparts.

As an aside, I was struck by how many 100 mph hurlers always seem to exist in OOTP back when I started playing in 14 or 15. It's kind of funny how real life has "Caught up" to OOTP and now every team has 3 or more guys that routinely break 100 mph.
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Re: Ted Gripes About the Dev Engine More

Post by RonCo » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:21 pm

No problem at all Ted. I appreciate your questions because they make me do things I wasn't to do anyway. I seem 100% open to digging deeper into anything I can use the data for... and if we find things we think are wrong, I'll send the data to the dev's.

These are things I was doing a lot of back in the late 2000s.
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Re: Ted Gripes About the Dev Engine More

Post by HoosierVic » Thu Aug 27, 2020 6:31 am

I have nothing of value to add to this, except to repeat ... Ted, please come back write more!

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Re: Ted Gripes About the Dev Engine More

Post by Ted » Thu Aug 27, 2020 7:43 am

HoosierVic wrote:
Thu Aug 27, 2020 6:31 am
I have nothing of value to add to this, except to repeat ... Ted, please come back write more!
I really do appreciate all the sentiment asking me to come back. I miss talking baseball. However, I'm really not that enamored with OOTP anymore. I think I could just deal with it's artificial, clunky nature, if I really set my mind to it, but then there's the issue of the BBA itself.

Matt runs a great league, but there are a number of things I really don't like about the BBA. There's no real point in going into them. For most of them, I'm in the minority. For some I'm all alone. Most of my criticisms are a matter of taste. For the ones where I think the BBA is simply wrong, it's often a matter of it truly being an unrealistic amount of work to make it right. I get all of those things.

Lastly, there's the issue of re-entry into the league. I have no interest in playing in the UMEBA. It wouldn't be a challenge. I'd get bored waiting for a BBA team, and I'd be waiting for a while because I don't want any old BBA team. I want the smelliest, most disgusting dumpster fire ever conceived. I'd want a team with a smaller than typical market size, awful FI and FL, tickt prices inthe 7$ rane from some GMs misguided attempts to bring fans in to watch his shitshow of a team, a maxed out cap situation, losing money, with no farm because the previous GM kept trading to win now, that was in the 70 win range but now is looking at 50 wins because of an old, overpaid core with unmovable train wreck contracts.

So I'd either have to sit in the UMEBA, bored out of my mind and pass on teams, or take the first BBA team that's even close and wreck it myself, which I'm not sure about the integrity of doing. And again, I have no interest in playing in the UMEBA. I'm 100% confident I could put together a first place team in a single season. Competing against largely AI and 50% inexperienced GMs would be boring. Not to mention frustrating as heck from a trade standpoint. This isn't just speculation. I've thought about coming back and looked into the UMEBA and read some of the posts from over there and GM concerns. It doesn't look like something I'd be able to put up with while waiting for a BBA team. Kudos to the guys that do it. I'm not interested.

So for now, I'll just randomly talk about stuff when the itch strikes me. Thanks again.
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Re: Ted Gripes About the Dev Engine More

Post by HoosierVic » Thu Aug 27, 2020 10:16 am

Well, I like the thought of you being a roving "columnist" opining on whatever piques your interest. The BBA is better when you're a part of it, in whatever role you choose.

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Re: Ted Gripes About the Dev Engine More

Post by bcslouck » Thu Aug 27, 2020 11:33 am

Thank you for attending this Ted Talk.
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