Does OOTP model pitching around batters?

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Re: Does OOTP model pitching around batters?

Post by Ted » Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:38 pm

Anyway, this has been fun. As you point out, without really knowing what's inside OOTPs black box of code, we can't know for certain. This has been fun though. Thanks for taking my OOTP accusation bait and talking nerd baseball with me.
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Re: Does OOTP model pitching around batters?

Post by RonCo » Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:39 pm

I mean, it makes sense that in a game of OOTP, where ratings are related to the three true outcomes (which is all FIP is), that the ability to beat ERA is dependent on things outside the OOTP pitcher's control.

If what I said above about old-time pitchers being more consistent in beating their FIP is right, you could say the same for the BBA--where, until the player demands ramped up, it was always "easy" (relative to the MLB, anyway) to keep your core players around for their whole careers.
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Re: Does OOTP model pitching around batters?

Post by RonCo » Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:46 pm

Ted wrote:
Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:36 pm

I'm not really sure you can compare Kingman. The different between a 30-50 HR and a 45-60 HR guy is night and day. There is an order of magnitude difference in the number of guys who've done it. The talent level is so dramatically different. I think you can strikeout swing your way to Kingman's power numbers, but you really have to be a complete hitter to get to 600 homers, or put up 50 on a regular basis. And as I mentioned in my amendment, Morales really doesn't strike out. Questions about how OOTP does WAR aside, you're talking 20 career WAR for Kingman versus 55 for Morales. They really aren't in the same realm. That's what makes Morales so weird. I don't think he can actually exist. You jsut can't have the taleent to hit homers like that and not hit for an absurdly high average, or walk a ton (either because pitchers are afraid or because you yourself have the strike zone judgement). I don't believe it's possible for it to ever play out that way.
No two players are perfectly matched. And, as I said, you need to do some environmental conversions to compare players in different environments.

Kingman played in an era where HR were not as common--translate him up to the BBA world (which has had bloatware offense for half a decade or more) and his expected HR would be huge. Or, similarly, translate Morales to a lower power time, and his numbers would shrink.

Yes, Morales does not K much (or didn't anyway, he's beginning to fade).

But one of the big WAR differences is that Morales can play defense (+50 ZR on his career, which was partially spent at 2B), whereas Kingman was laughable. When you place a decent bit of that WAR difference on the glove side, the comparisons get better. Not perfect, but better.
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Re: Does OOTP model pitching around batters?

Post by RonCo » Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:55 pm

As a Kingman/Morales addendum, Kingman's career OPS+ was +115. Morales's is currently +121, but will come down as he ages. It will not surprise me to see him at Kingman's level (or below) by the time he retires. Kingman was a big league hitter, but hard to build a winning team around because of that OBP problem--which is similar to what Morales is in modern-day BBA.
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Re: Does OOTP model pitching around batters?

Post by RonCo » Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:59 pm

And, finally, Mangrouthormone is what happens when you take away Morales's ability to avoid Ks and play defense. :)
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Re: Does OOTP model pitching around batters?

Post by Ted » Thu Aug 13, 2020 1:10 pm

You know Ron, Randy just asked me if I thought Morales or Dusty Rhodes is more of a unicorn. My answer was, "both". I can't find a player with similar career batting totals in the top 100 for either of their exceptional stats (HR and avg respectively). Morales doesn't walk enough for his power. And Rhodes hits too many homers for his relative lack of overall power (he hit too few 2 and 3b).

But then I got to thinking more. I've suspected for a while now that the BBA has had a very elevated HR rate compared to MLB of any period except maybe the steroid era. In that light, your Kingman versus Morales comparison is more valid, and I can find comparables in the 100 HR range for Rhodes. The thing is, those comps for Rhodes don't get to 3000 hits because in their late careers they were pure singes hitters with unremarkable averages. I suspect that if you took away half Rhodes power, he might have had the same trajectory, becoming unplayable late career.

Here is where you point you always make about cross league comparisons really stands out.
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Re: Does OOTP model pitching around batters?

Post by RonCo » Thu Aug 13, 2020 1:44 pm

These conversations are great fun...

Rhodes, Morales, and Wareham are the three Big Name unicorns, and of them I'd personally say Rhodes is the biggest unicorn. That said, after doing a few mental conversions, as a hitter maybe he's Pete Rose with literally no doubles. Of all the holes in all the unicorns, that's the one I find most hard to see or accept--but that's a personal choice thing, I suppose. Other difference is that Rose--until he got really old--was at least passable in the field in a lot of places. Rhodes was horrible even at first base.

The fact that their WAR gap is so large is partly career length, partly defense, and a lot about how powerful doubles are in the whole...among other things, I suppose.

Another interesting comparison to Rhodes is Bill Buckner. Buckner had a weird career, too--probably over-valued for his determination to not K. They were different in a lot of ways, but the same vibe at times.
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Re: Does OOTP model pitching around batters?

Post by RonCo » Thu Aug 13, 2020 1:48 pm

On the pitching side...Lorenzo di'Medici and his 17.6 K/9? Tiernan O'Macken at 14.5?

Really?

But then you look at 2019 and Josh Hader, Edwin Diaz, and Kirby Yates and you go ... oh ... um ... okay, I guess. That number just doesn't feel right, despite it being true.
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Re: Does OOTP model pitching around batters?

Post by RonCo » Thu Aug 13, 2020 2:31 pm

Just because it's fun to do, and I'm desperate for fun things to do these days ... let's do a conversion within the BBA .. and then go back to Kingman.

please read this with me giggling most of the way, because these really are just great fun puff-pieces.


Billy Wilson

BBA 1987: 63 HR in 581 AB (.1084)
FL 1987: 2475 HR in 67,393 AB (.0367)


Emilio Morales

BBA 2040: 66 HR in 628 AB (.1051)
FL 2040: 3544 HR in 89,162 AB (.0397)


------------------------


Morales hit more HR, but hit them at a lower rate than Wilson, despite the environment around him being more HR-rich. So, what does that mean, eh? How different are these?


-------------------------


Let's have some fun with math and convert Morales's HR into 1987's environment ...

- Wilson hit HR at 2.954 times the rate of the league average (.1084/.0367)
- Morales hit HR at 2.647 times the league average (.1051/.0397)
- Applying Morales's relative rate to the 1987 average, we get a revised HR rate of .0972 (2.647 x .0367).
- Using Morales's 628 AB and that 1987 rate, we get 61 HR.

So just a pure conversion makes Morales's 2040 performance come in a tad lower than Wilson's 1987.

Now let's realize, however, that Wilson hit in the cavernous California park, and Morales hits in the dinky Omaha park. That means if we were really trying to compare apples and apples and apply park factors (which I tend to think we should do in determining things like awards and HoF and whatnot), we'd need to bump Wilson's numbers up by between 3 and 5 HR, and Morales's down by a similar number. I say that with some trepidation regarding Wilson because I haven't actually done the math before. I've done the math with Morales in the past.

Anyway, effectively, that says--park-adjusted--Wilson's performance is probably something more like 66 HR, whereas Morales's is more line 58 HR. Both are huge numbers, but one is ... um ... huger.


-------------------------

Now let's do the same thing with Dave Kingman, because hellfire man, this is fun:

Dave Kingman, 1979:
NL 1979: 48 HR in 532 AB (.092) << Kingman's Best Year
NL Average 1979: 1472 HR in 66,088 AB (.0223)

Kingman hit HR at 4.05 x the league rate

Let's convert Morales to the NL in 1979...

- Morales's expected HR rate in 1979 = 2.647 x .0223 = .059
- Multiplied by his AB = .059 x 628 = 37

So in 1979, Kingman's bloated season in Chicago's park nets him 48 homers to Morales's 37 in a bloated Hawk Park. Given both are hitter's parks I'll make a probably wrong assumption that both would be affected in similar fashions by park adjustments.

--------------------------

Still, that was Kingman's biggest HR year. How about other seasons? Let's take a lesser Kingman year, say his 36 HR in 1975...

Dave Kingman: 1975
NL 1975: 36 HR in 502 AB (.0717)
NL Average 1975: 1233 HR in 66,102 AB (.0187)

Kingman hit HR at 3.845 times the league average rate. Converting Morales in the same way...

- Morales's expected HR rate (1975) = 2.647 x .0187 = .0495
- Morales's expected HR (1975) = .0495 x 628 = 31

So Kingman out-homers Morales 36 to 31.

Except, of course, in 1975, Kingman is playing with the Mets in Shea stadium--which is a pitcher's park. I'm not going to fiddle with that here except to note that I'd purely guess the effective difference would wind up being more like Kingman 38, Morales 29.

Does that change perceptions?
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Re: Does OOTP model pitching around batters?

Post by RonCo » Thu Aug 13, 2020 2:37 pm

For even more comic book fun ... converting Kingman 1979 to BBA 2040:

BBA League Rate: .0397
Kingman vs. Average: 4.05
Kingman's BBA 2040 Rate: = .1608
Kingman's AB: 532
Kingman's projected BBA 2040 HR: .1608 x 532 = 90

90.

Hokie Smokes
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Re: Does OOTP model pitching around batters?

Post by Ted » Thu Aug 13, 2020 4:28 pm

Fun stuff.

Also, I don't know I've ever heard someone say "hokie smokes". I feel like that's something a bunch of ex hipster now aging dads with kids way cooler then them would fake ironically call their "marijuana cigarettes". As in, now I'm old and hokie. "Hey man, pass me one of them hokie smokes."

After a little googling, hokie is apparently the castrated turkey mascot of Virginia Tech. Or anyone that went to Virginia Tech. Or anything related to VATech. Really it's confusing.
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Re: Does OOTP model pitching around batters?

Post by RonCo » Thu Aug 13, 2020 5:21 pm

Hokie smokes actually comes from a bit of a comedy act I heard on the radio when I was a kid, though I don't really remember who it was.

I also sometimes say "Holy Cows" rather than Holy Cow for an obscure reason. :)
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