HOFers/PED Use

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Re: HOFers/PED Use

Post by Bumstead » Fri Jan 25, 2019 8:25 am

JimBob2232 wrote:
Fri Jan 25, 2019 6:21 am
Put them all in(steroids guys). There is a big black mark on the entire era. That story needs to be told in the hall too. But one of these days we are going to find out someone already in the hall was as big a user as bonds/McGwire/Clemens and then what?

Put them in. Address the era. Move on
Well, we already found out...Mike Mussina was just voted into the hof...

So...Pete Rose's (his)story is in the hof, but he isn't...put these idiots' story in the same way. All or nothing. Otherwise, it's just hypocritical.

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Re: HOFers/PED Use

Post by bcslouck » Fri Jan 25, 2019 9:27 am

Bumstead wrote:
Fri Jan 25, 2019 8:25 am
Well, we already found out...Mike Mussina was just voted into the hof...
?
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Re: HOFers/PED Use

Post by Bumstead » Fri Jan 25, 2019 10:30 am

bcslouck wrote:
Fri Jan 25, 2019 9:27 am
Bumstead wrote:
Fri Jan 25, 2019 8:25 am
Well, we already found out...Mike Mussina was just voted into the hof...
?
!

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Re: HOFers/PED Use

Post by bcslouck » Fri Jan 25, 2019 11:15 am

Bumstead wrote:
Fri Jan 25, 2019 10:30 am
!
.
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Re: HOFers/PED Use

Post by Bumstead » Fri Jan 25, 2019 11:50 am

bcslouck wrote:
Fri Jan 25, 2019 11:15 am
Bumstead wrote:
Fri Jan 25, 2019 10:30 am
!
.
...

Do we PP's for Off-Topic posts? :pickles:

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Re: HOFers/PED Use

Post by RonCo » Fri Jan 25, 2019 12:13 pm

You could use a few. :)

Maybe I'm not looking closely enough, but I've never heard Mike Mussina's name seriously associated with PEDs.
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Re: HOFers/PED Use

Post by bcslouck » Fri Jan 25, 2019 12:15 pm

RonCo wrote:
Fri Jan 25, 2019 12:13 pm
You could use a few. :)

Maybe I'm not looking closely enough, but I've never heard Mike Mussina's name seriously associated with PEDs.
That was where my "?" stemmed from.
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Re: HOFers/PED Use

Post by Bumstead » Fri Jan 25, 2019 12:19 pm

bcslouck wrote:
Fri Jan 25, 2019 12:15 pm
RonCo wrote:
Fri Jan 25, 2019 12:13 pm
You could use a few. :)

Maybe I'm not looking closely enough, but I've never heard Mike Mussina's name seriously associated with PEDs.
That was where my "?" stemmed from.
So, putting PED use aside, would you vote for him if he didn't have 270 wins? I mean, y'all will tell me that wins don't matter for a pitcher all day, every season.

Edit: I personally think Wins do matter. But put that to the side.

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Re: HOFers/PED Use

Post by RonCo » Fri Jan 25, 2019 1:00 pm

Well, I had him on my fake ballot, so, yes...and, yes, I think wins tells a narrative--though to fully get that narrative, it's helpful to understand the era those wins were created in.

That said, I like Jay Jaffe's basic take: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-th ... e-mussina/

If you don't want to read the whole thing, here's the baseline argument Jaffe makes in that article, which I find compelling:
Two hundred and seventy is not 300, but even so, Mussina ranks 33rd all-time in wins, tied with Hall of Famer Burleigh Grimes and above Jim Palmer (268), Bob Feller (266), Bob Gibson (251), and 31 other enshrined starting pitchers, including Martinez (219) and Smoltz (213). Those last two are double the total of sub-300 win starters elected by the BBWAA from 1992 to 2014; Blyleven — elected in 2011, his 14th year of eligibility, with 287 wins — is the exception.

Moving beyond that — seriously, I’m done with the wins talk now — Mussina’s 2,813 strikeouts rank 20th all-time. Among pitchers with at least 3,000 innings, he’s 10th in strikeouts per nine (7.1) and eighth in strikeout percentage (19.3%). That’s in part a product of pitching in an era where strikeout rates were almost continually on the rise, but it’s impressive nonetheless. Even more impressive is that his 3.58 strikeout-to-walk ratio is second only to Schilling among pitchers with at least 3,000 innings since 1893, when the distance from the rubber to home plate was lengthened to 60’6″.

As for the postseason, Mussina may not have won a ring, but his 3.42 ERA in 139.2 innings is no small feat given the high-scoring era; it’s 0.26 lower than his regular-season ERA, which itself was 23% better than the park-adjusted league average and is tied for 23rd all-time. Aided by the three-tiered playoff format, his 145 postseason strikeouts rank sixth, his 9.3 strikeouts per nine fourth among the 27 pitchers with at least 100 postseason innings, behind Justin Verlander, Randy Johnson, and Clayton Kershaw. Sadly, Mussina’s teams only won nine of his 23 postseason starts because they supported him with just 3.1 runs per game; only four times did they even give him more than four runs. He had a few dud starts (three of less than five innings), but it’s tough to pin his failure to win a championship on him.

As for the advanced metrics, Mussina stands tall thanks to his combination of run prevention and strikeouts (for which he doesn’t have to share credit — and thus value — with his fielders). He ranked among the league’s top five in WAR seven times, and 11 times was among the top 10. His 83.0 career WAR is 23rd all-time, ahead of 42 of the 63 enshrined starting pitchers; he’s 14th among post-World War II pitchers. All of the top 25 are enshrined save for him and Clemens. That total is 2.2 wins above 2014 honoree Glavine, who has an almost identical career/peak/JAWS line, and 9.6 above the average for enshrined starters. Mussina’s more modest peak WAR of 44.6 is 66th all time, topping only 22 enshrined starters, 5.5 wins below the standard, but his 63.8 JAWS is 2.0 points above the standard, good for 29th all-time, two spots below Schilling (64.1) and two above Glavine (62.5). His score beats those of 38 enshrined starters. He’s good enough for Cooperstown.
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Re: HOFers/PED Use

Post by bcslouck » Fri Jan 25, 2019 1:13 pm

Bumstead wrote:
Fri Jan 25, 2019 12:19 pm
So, putting PED use aside, would you vote for him if he didn't have 270 wins? I mean, y'all will tell me that wins don't matter for a pitcher all day, every season.

Edit: I personally think Wins do matter. But put that to the side.
I think wins matter. I mean, I get why people don't put stock into them. But they should count for something. Ron quoted a bunch of stats that back him up. He was really good in the 90's. One of the best in the AL. And he was good for a long time. His longevity probably outweighs some of his production. But that doesn't take away from the fact he was one of the best SP's in baseball for half his career.
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Re: HOFers/PED Use

Post by usnspecialist » Fri Jan 25, 2019 2:11 pm

Put me in the camp of "single season wins are worthless but career means something".
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Re: HOFers/PED Use

Post by RonCo » Fri Jan 25, 2019 2:36 pm

Even single season wins as a stat are not "worthless." They carry some level of information in them, but they're very noisy.

If you had to pick a pitcher knowing nothing else about them but that one had 17 wins last year and the other had 9, you'd pick the one that had 17 as the better pitcher...and often you would be right. But it wouldn't be as certain as you'd like.

Same thing with RBI. The real argument against these as 1-season stats is that there are lots of better metrics (meaning they have much less noise and are therefore massively more reliable for use in projecting true quality). All counting numbers are dangerous if you're trying to identify "the best" players. But, seriously, you don't find a lot of absolutely shitty pitchers posting 16-20 wins these days.
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Re: HOFers/PED Use

Post by usnspecialist » Fri Jan 25, 2019 2:43 pm

Worthless was a bit strong and hyperbolic on my part, I just don't use wins/losses in an individual season when it comes to things like award voting and evaluating players for trade/FA.
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Re: HOFers/PED Use

Post by bcslouck » Fri Jan 25, 2019 2:46 pm

RonCo wrote:
Fri Jan 25, 2019 2:36 pm
Same thing with RBI. The real argument against these as 1-season stats is that there are lots of better metrics (meaning they have much less noise and are therefore massively more reliable for use in projecting true quality). All counting numbers are dangerous if you're trying to identify "the best" players. But, seriously, you don't find a lot of absolutely shitty pitchers posting 16-20 wins these days.
Not anymore. I think there was a 10-20 season stretch that included the 90's where you'd see that. But not anymore.

Now someone could say well Mussina was in that stretch. But he wasn't shitty. And won a ton of games even when they were bad.
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