Des Moines/Omaha

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Des Moines/Omaha

Post by niles08 » Thu Apr 25, 2019 9:54 am

Omaha receives:

C John Hale(BBA)

Des Moines receives:

C Benjamin Clark(BBA)
P Juan Garcia(Short A)
P Pedro Tanon(Rookie)

Please put Hale in the open catcher spot against righties & lefties that Clark leaves open.

All 3 players going to Des Moines have been DFA.
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Re: Des Moines/Omaha

Post by usnspecialist » Thu Apr 25, 2019 10:18 am

Niles the shark strikes again. If I knew that was all it took to get a young high end catcher I would have made a medium grade offer and blown it out of the water.
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Re: Des Moines/Omaha

Post by bcslouck » Thu Apr 25, 2019 10:32 am

usnspecialist wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 10:18 am
Niles the shark strikes again. If I knew that was all it took to get a young high end catcher I would have made a medium grade offer and blown it out of the water.
Seriously.
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Re: Des Moines/Omaha

Post by agrudez » Thu Apr 25, 2019 10:55 am

Upon seeing this, every team in the league just cold called Ed for Jose Castro, lol.

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Re: Des Moines/Omaha

Post by Edward Murphy » Thu Apr 25, 2019 12:32 pm

niles08 wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 9:54 am
Omaha receives:

C John Hale(BBA)

Des Moines receives:

C Benjamin Clark(BBA)
P Juan Garcia(Short A)
P Pedro Tanon(Rookie)

Please put Hale in the open catcher spot against righties & lefties that Clark leaves open.

All 3 players going to Des Moines have been DFA.
confirmed

put Clark starting catcher and open spot against RHP & LHP.

put Garcia in open spot of the starting rotation at SA level

Put Tanon setup at SA level also.
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Re: Des Moines/Omaha

Post by RonCo » Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:53 pm

Interesting deal.

I'll just note that Hale is a horrible defensive catcher (though he should grow into something semi-adequate) and he can't hit lefties at all. As the GM of a catcher who can't catch, I'll say they can be more than a little annoying. That said, his bat vs. RHP is better than solid. As a division mate, I'm kind of back and forth on Omaha getting him. I'm also not sure what Omaha's window is anymore.

Clark is almost certainly a poorish offensive talent, but he's much better defensively. He's like my Nate Wood, only a tick better offensively and a tick down with the glove. Neither of them are All-Stars, but both can play a little. I drafted Clark, so maybe I'm biased toward him. I admit I like Garcia quite a bit, and he's nearing 20, so he's got a reasonable chance to be useful in the window Ed's probably pointing to. Pair him with newly drafted Don Smith and Gary Palmer, and you've got an interesting chuck of young rotation. Tanon is good, too, but he's young and there are several of those guys around...still not a bad guy to have around.

Overall, I'm growing into the "wait and see" camp.
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Re: Des Moines/Omaha

Post by Ted » Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:57 pm

RonCo wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:53 pm
Interesting deal.

I'll just note that Hale is a horrible defensive catcher and he can't hit lefties at all. As the GM of a catcher who can't catch, I'll say they can be more than a little annoying. That said, his bat vs. RHP is better than solid. As a division mate, I'm kind of back and forth on Omaha getting him. I'm also not sure what Omaha's window is anymore.

Clark is almost certainly a poorish offensive talent, but he's much better defensively. He's like my Nate Wood, only a tick better offensively and a tick down with the glove. Neither of them are All-Stars, but both can play a little. I drafted Clark, so maybe I'm biased toward him. I admit I like Garcia quite a bit, and he's nearing 20, so he's got a reasonable chance to be useful in the window Ed's probably pointing to. Pair him with newly drafted Don Smith and Gary Palmer, and you've got an interesting chuck of young rotation. Tanon is good, too, but he's young and there are several of those guys around...still not a bad guy to have around.

Overall, I'm growing into the "wait and see" camp.
So, I'm not sure I''d call Hale "horrible" defensively. He's 6 in ability and arm. I'd take him over the 4/9 or 8/4 guys a lot of teams play. Also, catcher that can hit RHP well are just so rare. AND catchers have to have days off. AND catchers who can hit LHP at least decently are a dime a dozen. So the fact that a catcher can't hit LHP to me doesn't matter. He was never going to get those at bats. Sure relievers and whatnot, but that's a low low percentage of at bats, especially considering how few decent lefty relievers there are.
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Re: Des Moines/Omaha

Post by agrudez » Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:02 pm

Ron and downplaying an obvious trade drumming. Name a more iconic duo. :P
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Re: Des Moines/Omaha

Post by RonCo » Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:05 pm

Ted wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:57 pm

So, I'm not sure I''d call Hale "horrible" defensively. He's 6 in ability and arm. I'd take him over the 4/9 or 8/4 guys a lot of teams play. Also, catcher that can hit RHP well are just so rare. AND catchers have to have days off. AND catchers who can hit LHP at least decently are a dime a dozen. So the fact that a catcher can't hit LHP to me doesn't matter. He was never going to get those at bats. Sure relievers and whatnot, but that's a low low percentage of at bats, especially considering how few decent lefty relievers there are.
I modified it after posting to note that he'll grow to become semi-decent, assuming he grows. That said, he's horrible now.
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Re: Des Moines/Omaha

Post by RonCo » Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:06 pm

agrudez wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:02 pm
Ron and downplaying an obvious trade drumming. Name a more iconic duo. :P
Just saying what I think. I suppose I should apologize for my stupidity, but I'm not smart enough to know I'm that dumb. :)
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Re: Des Moines/Omaha

Post by RonCo » Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:12 pm

RonCo wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:05 pm
Ted wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:57 pm

So, I'm not sure I''d call Hale "horrible" defensively. He's 6 in ability and arm. I'd take him over the 4/9 or 8/4 guys a lot of teams play. Also, catcher that can hit RHP well are just so rare. AND catchers have to have days off. AND catchers who can hit LHP at least decently are a dime a dozen. So the fact that a catcher can't hit LHP to me doesn't matter. He was never going to get those at bats. Sure relievers and whatnot, but that's a low low percentage of at bats, especially considering how few decent lefty relievers there are.
I modified it after posting to note that he'll grow to become semi-decent, assuming he grows. That said, he's horrible now.
But, yes, left-handed hitting (and switch-hitting) catchers have a scarcity to them. The final analysis here on who will eventually win is probably dependent on how big the production gap between Hale and Clark will be (it won't be miniscule) and whether Garcia can hang as a #3/#4 pitcher at a time when Ed needs him.
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Re: Des Moines/Omaha

Post by ae37jr » Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:15 pm

This thread needs a Tobias Wulms reference.
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Re: Des Moines/Omaha

Post by Ted » Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:23 pm

ae37jr wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:15 pm
This thread needs a Tobias Wulms reference.
Because I can't keep my mouth shut and I don't know what your point was, I'll point out the following. Players not developing, lumping, bumping, doesn't really change the analysis of a trade. What matters is the value of the players at the time of the deal. For prospects, that eval has to take into account the likelihood of development, which most of us probably overestimate.

The following scenario is NOT a description of the Wulms trade, but rather a statement of an excuse use after that fact that could easily be applied to it. If a team trades an 80 prospect for a a player who looks marginally above replacement, that is a bad deal. It doesn't matter if the prospect flames out, the marginal replacement guy bumps twice and puts up a total of 10 WAR for the team that got him.

To say that was a good deal would be like saying people who won the lottery are good lottery players and people who lost are bad lottery players. Baseball is just unpredictable. What happens after the deal does not change the value the players had at the time the deal was made.
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Re: Des Moines/Omaha

Post by niles08 » Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:30 pm

Ted wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:23 pm
ae37jr wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:15 pm
This thread needs a Tobias Wulms reference.
Because I can't keep my mouth shut and I don't know what your point was, I'll point out the following. Players not developing, lumping, bumping, doesn't really change the analysis of a trade. What matters is the value of the players at the time of the deal. For prospects, that eval has to take into account the likelihood of development, which most of us probably overestimate.

The following scenario is NOT a description of the Wulms trade, but rather a statement of an excuse use after that fact that could easily be applied to it. If a team trades an 80 prospect for a a player who looks marginally above replacement, that is a bad deal. It doesn't matter if the prospect flames out, the marginal replacement guy bumps twice and puts up a total of 10 WAR for the team that got him.

To say that was a good deal would be like saying people who won the lottery are good lottery players and people who lost are bad lottery players. Baseball is just unpredictable. What happens after the deal does not change the value the players had at the time the deal was made.
I agree it should be based on current value of the players at the time of the deal, which is why I wonder why is it so crazy to trade a 65 potential starting pitcher, a 55 potential relief pitcher, and a 35 potential catcher for a 60 overall/60 potential catcher.

Seems fair to me.
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Re: Des Moines/Omaha

Post by agrudez » Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:36 pm

I applaud you for sticking to your guns in the face of reality.
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Re: Des Moines/Omaha

Post by ae37jr » Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:39 pm

I didn't really have a point. Just throwing it out there cause Ed seems to be involved in a lot of controversial trades.
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Re: Des Moines/Omaha

Post by Ted » Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:52 pm

niles08 wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:30 pm
Ted wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:23 pm
ae37jr wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:15 pm
This thread needs a Tobias Wulms reference.
Because I can't keep my mouth shut and I don't know what your point was, I'll point out the following. Players not developing, lumping, bumping, doesn't really change the analysis of a trade. What matters is the value of the players at the time of the deal. For prospects, that eval has to take into account the likelihood of development, which most of us probably overestimate.

The following scenario is NOT a description of the Wulms trade, but rather a statement of an excuse use after that fact that could easily be applied to it. If a team trades an 80 prospect for a a player who looks marginally above replacement, that is a bad deal. It doesn't matter if the prospect flames out, the marginal replacement guy bumps twice and puts up a total of 10 WAR for the team that got him.

To say that was a good deal would be like saying people who won the lottery are good lottery players and people who lost are bad lottery players. Baseball is just unpredictable. What happens after the deal does not change the value the players had at the time the deal was made.
I agree it should be based on current value of the players at the time of the deal, which is why I wonder why is it so crazy to trade a 65 potential starting pitcher, a 55 potential relief pitcher, and a 35 potential catcher for a 60 overall/60 potential catcher.

Seems fair to me.
I was just talking about the "It could work out a lot of ways" argument. That one drives me nuts.

As far as this particular trade, for me it comes down to player evaluation and ratings versus utility, rarity, player control, and likelihood of development.

Hale doesn't a have a lot of playing time, but I think everyone would agree his performance is in line with his ratings. Also, 60 catchers aren't that common. No so much as 60 1B, or 60 LF, etc. Good hitting left handed C's are great, because they allow you to maximize a platoon at a position that is usually quite tough to do so because of their scarcity.

I think you are higher on Clark than me, but typically a 35 on an RHB is a platoon backup at best. That has essentially zero value to me. I can go get one of those from anyone for the most marginal of prospects, or often find one on the waiver wire. The 65 potential starting pitcher is almost 20, and developed okay, but no so much that he's a lock to develop to the mid rotation arm that he looks like. I also agree that 65 is kind of a high potential for a mid rotation guy. Garcia may be at the very top of the range of his ratings. Still, with his age and change up, i'd say he's 50/50 to be what we hope. The 55 relief arm to me is also very replaceable, and is so far away (17 years old) i'd give him a 25% chance to develop.

So, what I see, is Omaha getting the current all star starting C, who seems to be a lock to be one of the better hitting C's in the brewster, still on a min deal, for a backup C, a 50% chance at a mid rotation arm, and a 25% chance at a middle reliever. That's why I think this is bad. My valuation of the players may be off. But there's a good chance none of those players make a meaningful impact.
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Re: Des Moines/Omaha

Post by RonCo » Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:54 pm

The likelihood of a guy flaming out is certainly a part of his current value.

Wulms (who I think was either 17 or early 18 when we made that deal) had high likelihood of flaming out (and has).

If I have any real issue with the deal it's that Ed's got more risk. I like Garcia, but he's got a season to go before he gets to the point of progress where I feel comfortable. That's really the trade: Des Moines gives Omaha the relatively risk-free performance gap between Hale and Clark in return for a middle-low risk solid starter (Garcia is nearly 20) and an even younger reliever who will have value if he keeps his ratings, but has at least two years of dealing with the risk of development before you can assign any certainty to him.

Still, there's a reasonable argument to be made that Des Moines fans will eventually see it as a positive deal.

Justin "wins" if you're looking for stability/certainty. But I'll also note that I don't expect Hale to be an All-Star too often...except that us voted tend to ignore defense, so maybe he will be...especially if Justin can platoon him effectively.
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Re: Des Moines/Omaha

Post by bcslouck » Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:56 pm

niles08 wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:30 pm
I agree it should be based on current value of the players at the time of the deal, which is why I wonder why is it so crazy to trade a 65 potential starting pitcher, a 55 potential relief pitcher, and a 35 potential catcher for a 60 overall/60 potential catcher.

Seems fair to me.
Because it's not as simple as 65 potential + 55 potential + 35 potential = 60 current. It doesn't. The 60 current is way greater than the 65 +55 +35 potential. Especially when the 55 is a RP and the 35 is a weak side platoon option.
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Re: Des Moines/Omaha

Post by niles08 » Thu Apr 25, 2019 3:00 pm

Funny the Wulms reference comes up. I do remember this trade and the outrage it caused. Looking at the players involved though, would it truly end up being a crazy trade had it remained the same?

Going to Yellow Springs was:

Ernesto Chavez retired a few seasons later after being released immediately by YS9. This saved DM money clearly.
Edgardo Llauro is in the yellow springs bullpen but he has 1 pitch basically as the slider never developed.
Tobias Wulms is obviously not the pitcher he was supposed to be as he has regressed a bit.(He was sent back to DM for Bob Frazier)

Going to Des Moines was:

Jerry Ivory who didn't amount to much. Basically was the same class as Ernesto except cheaper.
Ernesto Garza is still with Des Moines as a 3B in their minors but could play anyday.
Bob Frazier is with YS9 as a utility player with some power.(He was sent back to YS9 for Wulms)

I would truly argue that the league's quick reaction to this trade that caused Yellow Springs & Des Moines to eliminate Frazier & Wulms from this trade actually hurt Des Moines as I believe that Frazier would better benefit Des Moines than Wulms would.
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