HSV - Twin Cities

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HSV - Twin Cities

Post by agrudez » Sat Dec 03, 2016 9:31 pm

Twin Cities receive:
ML SP Jessie Stewart
ML LF Leon Beaucage
RL SP Alejandro Alvarado
WL SP Jessie Howard
WL RP Ramon Garza

Huntsville receives:
ML CF Jean-Luc Lacaze
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Re: HSV - Twin Cities

Post by Bumstead » Sat Dec 03, 2016 9:51 pm

agrudez wrote:Twin Cities receive:
ML SP Jessie Stewart
ML LF Leon Beaucage
RL SP Alejandro Alvarado
WL SP Jessie Howard
WL RP Ramon Garza

Huntsville receives:
ML CF Jean-Luc Lacaze

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Re: HSV - Twin Cities

Post by bschr682 » Sat Dec 03, 2016 10:35 pm

This seems like a rather risky gamble on a bunch of warty prospects but if development is kind it has a chance of working out I guess? Howard has a shot at being damn good at any rate.
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Re: HSV - Twin Cities

Post by Lane » Sat Dec 03, 2016 10:56 pm

There are some flawed prospects but quantity is good. Lacaze is a risk to fall a little and won't really hit lefties


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Re: HSV - Twin Cities

Post by bschr682 » Sat Dec 03, 2016 11:09 pm

Lane wrote:There are some flawed prospects but quantity is good. Lacaze is a risk to fall a little and won't really hit lefties


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Lacaze's bat has to fall quite a bit to not be considered the best CF in the league when you factor in defense, age, and contract situation. So total win for Huntsville to get him while only giving up 1 blue chipper and some warty dudes. But at least Howard is a real deal blue chipper.
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Re: HSV - Twin Cities

Post by trmmilwwi » Sun Dec 04, 2016 12:07 am

#1 overall... Yes please. Chance for a top cfer.. I think both teams did well. Bum needs quantity right now.
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Re: HSV - Twin Cities

Post by agrudez » Sun Dec 04, 2016 4:59 pm

What makes Alvarado, Stewart and Howard "warty"? The worst thing you can say about any of them is that Alvarado is raw (16 years old) and Howard has poor development intangibles (L WE, L Int).
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Re: HSV - Twin Cities

Post by ae37jr » Sun Dec 04, 2016 5:09 pm

bschr682 wrote:
Lane wrote:There are some flawed prospects but quantity is good. Lacaze is a risk to fall a little and won't really hit lefties


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Lacaze's bat has to fall quite a bit to not be considered the best CF in the league when you factor in defense, age, and contract situation. So total win for Huntsville to get him while only giving up 1 blue chipper and some warty dudes. But at least Howard is a real deal blue chipper.
I agree with Stephan on this. Brooklyn was the mystery team to first try to pry Lacaze away. Ultimately I couldn't pay top price because of the EBA conversion randomness. We've seen a lot of EBA guys come over and lump right off the bat. This may be the highest his trade value will be. Plus as an expansion team, I would probably make this deal too. By the time TC rounds out it's roster, Lacaze will be in free agency years.
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Re: HSV - Twin Cities

Post by bschr682 » Sun Dec 04, 2016 5:49 pm

agrudez wrote:What makes Alvarado, Stewart and Howard "warty"? The worst thing you can say about any of them is that Alvarado is raw (16 years old) and Howard has poor development intangibles (L WE, L Int).
Stewart is about to be 24 and his changeup is stuck. Not going to be a starter (barring a miracle although I grant you late bloomers have been happening way more often in OOTP 17) so I say warty. Beaucage is borderline completely useless. His bat wont be good enough to justify playing him fulltime in LF and his defense will be atrociously poor if you tried him in CF. Warty. Alvarado has a weaksauce 3rd pitch and can only be a starter if he completely maxes development. Considering age/risk I say warty (but totally arguable I grant you). Garza has an even weaker sauce 3rd pitch and low stamina plus low movement. Probably not a starter unless he pitches in California/Vancouver so I say warty. Howard is just really young but I did call him a blue chipper. He is for sure the get here.

Not blasting this one as a complete coal raking as there is upside here with quantity over quality but everyone but Stewart is indeed warty. Very risky in my opinion but not awful. I wont even say TC could have even gotten a better offer as only TC knows that. I sorta see the logic though in that its possible Lacaze pulls a Dubois so its quite possible that trading him immediately is a worthwhile risk but if Lacaze holds his ratings and performs, then he traded a franchise cornerstone player for I don't know why. Pitching is so much easier to get these days then decent bats.
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Re: HSV - Twin Cities

Post by agrudez » Sun Dec 04, 2016 5:57 pm

I guess our biggest point of difference in this is that I don't mind a yellow 3rd pitch, then. Without really digging deep to find examples of '5' 3rd pitches to contrast their performance to date, a yellow third pitch certainly hasn't doomed Cavazos. I would've accepted the 'warty' moniker for, say, Estrada, but we're simply on different pages with Stewart and Alvarado - no worries.
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Re: HSV - Twin Cities

Post by bschr682 » Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:04 pm

Horrible comp. Cavazos is a lefty. If he were a righty, he would probably prove my point. Again im not saying you slaughtered the new guy or anything, just saying its really risky and I just personally think it was an unnecessary risk at that.
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Re: HSV - Twin Cities

Post by Ted » Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:10 pm

I think Brett is overly pessimistic, but his point about pitching value versus hitting value is very valid. I've seen several guys succeed at the ML level with 5 rated third pitches. I think it depends on the pitch and whether it's nearly a six or just barely not a four.

Here are some examples
-Esteban Gil
-Tavio Ciccolella
-Ramon Farias
-Nathaniel Snow


And that's just off the top of my head. Gil's a bit of of an outlier because his other stuff is so good, but even so, all four of these guys fit into a mold. Mediocre stuff, great movement and control. If you put a defense behind that they can succeed. Alvarado gets ground balls. If he develops, he'll be just fine. Not a 1-2 guy, but serviceable.
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Re: HSV - Twin Cities

Post by Ted » Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:16 pm

bschr682 wrote:Again im not saying you slaughtered the new guy or anything, just saying its really risky and I just personally think it was an unnecessary risk at that.
This is the point I agree most with, the risk. It's not a bad deal. In terms of talent for talent it's just about right. It's very unlikely TC ends up with nothing, but it's possible. There's not a guaranteed impact player in the the bunch. The best guys are both very undeveloped. It makes great sense to move Lacaze if you're planning to take a couple years to get into things, but given that at least half the league is playing replacement level or worse CF, I wonder if a deal with better developed players would have materialized. On the other hand, very few teams could have given them the sheer number of prospects with real upside that they got. Moreover, if their moving their window back from a fully developed 22 year old, they're gonna have to get pretty young stuff in return.
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Re: HSV - Twin Cities

Post by bschr682 » Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:24 pm

Im not talking about Alvarado. I already fully acknowledged he has a shot if he maxes out. Im talking about Stewart and Garza. Alvarado and Howard are probably worth the risk. Stewart, Garza, and Beaucage are not. Just my opinion. I would have wanted to feel safer by either swapping out Stewart for Steve Riley or Beaucage for Belcham.

Again I don't think this is a horrendous trade. There is a very real chance that all of these prospects max out or even bump in which case TC has a great young nucleus.
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Re: HSV - Twin Cities

Post by Ted » Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:34 pm

bschr682 wrote:Im not talking about Alvarado. I already fully acknowledged he has a shot if he maxes out. Im talking about Stewart and Garza. Alvarado and Howard are probably worth the risk. Stewart, Garza, and Beaucage are not. Just my opinion. I would have wanted to feel safer by either swapping out Stewart for Steve Riley or Beaucage for Belcham.

Again I don't think this is a horrendous trade. There is a very real chance that all of these prospects max out or even bump in which case TC has a great young nucleus.
Whoops, sorry. I agree on Beaucage. He looks like a mess, unless he has enough contact to turn that gap rating into 30 doubles and 20 triples with his speed, and he probably doesn't. (maybe almost assuredly doesn't). Stewart's age is a big read flag, I agree. I always was looking at Garza as a reliever, which was okay as the 5th player in this deal, but if he's the third best, ugh.
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Re: HSV - Twin Cities

Post by bschr682 » Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:43 pm

Its not a total "ugh" deal though. There is a real chance Lacaze gets EBA ratings face melted and goes the way of the dodo. It has happened before. So this indeed might be the best TC can do without letting him get a season under his belt to prove he is as good as he looks.

My only point in all of this is I think the better play was to keep lacaze, let him win the Gillstrom and then trade him for a real haul instead of trading him for 1 blue chipper and some long shot warty dudes.
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Re: HSV - Twin Cities

Post by agrudez » Sun Dec 04, 2016 7:00 pm

how can you take an argument seriously when it suggests garza is a better asset than stewart? stewart is 23 years old and 2 points off his #3 sp pot - and while we banter on the merit of a yellow 3rd pitch, he still has plenty of time to develop that changeup. just keep repeating warty until it sticks, i guess. noone - least of all me - is going to extoll the virtues of garza and beaucage, so why are you judging the deals merit on their worth? stewart, howard and alvarado are all prime assets in their own right - the latter 2 on their front of the rotation potential and the former due to his proximity to the majors (and full dev) and mid-rotation potential.
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Re: HSV - Twin Cities

Post by recte44 » Sun Dec 04, 2016 7:14 pm

done

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