Which Title Would you Want?

[RonCo]

I guess your words were "for awhile" so I suppose that's fair.

[RonCo]

I can see where you’re coming from. When judging the competency of front offices I consider “lately” to be more than three years. St. Louis hasn’t come up but that’s been another model franchise in a small market. They struggled last year and might be in for another tough season but in my mind that’s still been a very successful org lately

I guess the point is that if you're leading a small market team, you can have a highly competent front office and still have fallow years.

The St. Louis payroll is upper third in the league right now and has been above average for a long time now. While they have the aura of a small market team, they are not one. They are just not a behemoth like the LAs and the NYYs. They are also quite good baseball folks, which proves that if you get good baseball people together with at least reasonable spending, you can do pretty danged well. Just imagine it the Cardinal front office had an extra $100-$150M a year to spend this year like the Mets are?

[RonCo]

Just because...here are what I was using for current payrolls: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/_/y ... 2/dir/desc

[BaseClogger]

The Cardinals are in a bottom half market. That’s just a fact. They’ve been able to spend because of their success consistently drawing people to the park and building on what was already a strong brand historically.

[RonCo]

Hmmm...well...however they are getting their money (TV/Gate/Merchandising/whatever), they have been in the top half of _spenders_ for some time. For a conversation based on the value of spending and payroll, that seems to be the best metric to use.

[RonCo]

Even Tampa, everyone's poster child for astute and analytical front offices has not avoided streaks of multiple years where their lack of ability to spend their way out of trouble has resulted in poor records on the field.

[recte44]

The Brewers and particularly the Rays are small market teams that are surviving on baseball acumen and churning young players. That's really what Billy Beane was doing in the heyday of Oakland's competitive period. Everyone focuses on Moneyball and OBP, which was good, but he also worked in a world where he could churn draft picks for Free Agents, and so he converted a how squad of very good young pitchers (in one generation) into a new whole fleet of draft picks (in the next). Beane was a guy of his day on the cutting edge of sabermetrics.

The Orioles are an interesting situation, since they are running on a wave of youth they have a very cheap payroll. We'll see if they have true baseball smarts going forward, or if they fade when the kids get pricey and leave.

One thing Michael Lewis didn't really point out was huge about the A's Moneyball success was that it becomes much easier to win when you have Barry Zito, Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson.

[BaseClogger]

Discussion started with “MLB’s financial system” not just the impact of spending. Spending is a decision—markets are the static variables within that system.

Cardinals had one losing season from 2000 to 2022 which is comparable to the Dodger and Yankee runs described earlier. I think a statistical analysis would show a positive correlation between payroll and wins but it would be insignificant.

[recte44]

You can make a small payroll work in the regular season, but once the playoffs come it's a lot tougher (it seems).

[RonCo]

I feel like I've trod upon your sacred cow here. So I'm sorry.

Markets are semi-static variables in the system. That's true. But there are more variables than that. Revenue sharing. Luxury taxes. The ability of players to get more lucrative endorsement deals one place or the next. The fact that very young players are mega-valuable relative to cost but have a higher risk profile than players a few years deeper into their careers. How much a team spends on facilities. Arguably even how good/costly your coaches are. Blah, blah, blah.

Still, the fact that MLB teams don't really have a salary cap means that the freedom/decision to spend on players or not spend on players is literally the primary driver of the MLB financial system as it appears on the field. The ability of teams to keep local income streams is part of that decision, of course, and is one of the roots of why teams' payrolls vary from $60M to $360M. That said, as I've noted before, I'm sure there is a lot more money in baseball than we ever see. So I'm certain teams could spend more.

That said, there is certainly a statistically significant correlation between regular season wins and payroll. It's been studied many times, and since there are different ways to do the math you can get different answers as to how high that correlation is. It's not the ONLY significant correlation, but it's is real. The world is not as simple as spend more win more, but I struggle to see a situation where the ability to spend more money is not a competitive advantage. Just like the ability to assess player value is a competitive advantage.

It is true, though, as I said very early in this thread, that a small market team that never wins (like a Pittsburgh) is not a problem with the system, but a problem with the front office. The system is set up that a small market team certainly can win. And a small-to-mid market team that wins almost all the time is a good indicator of a good owner and a very good front office.

[RonCo]

You can make a small payroll work in the regular season, but once the playoffs come it's a lot tougher (it seems).

Yes. All the money doesn't change the fact that, even if correlation was 100%, the best team in baseball, when facing another pretty good team, probably only wins 55% of the time. I a set of short series, that means they are considerably likely to lose somewhere along the line. That's why the Vegas bookies generally give a line at the beginning of the playoffs that gives the "best" team only a 25% or so chance to win it all.

[lordtoffee]

The Brewers and particularly the Rays are small market teams that are surviving on baseball acumen and churning young players. That's really what Billy Beane was doing in the heyday of Oakland's competitive period. Everyone focuses on Moneyball and OBP, which was good, but he also worked in a world where he could churn draft picks for Free Agents, and so he converted a how squad of very good young pitchers (in one generation) into a new whole fleet of draft picks (in the next). Beane was a guy of his day on the cutting edge of sabermetrics.

The Orioles are an interesting situation, since they are running on a wave of youth they have a very cheap payroll. We'll see if they have true baseball smarts going forward, or if they fade when the kids get pricey and leave.

One thing Michael Lewis didn't really point out was huge about the A's Moneyball success was that it becomes much easier to win when you have Barry Zito, Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson.

Plus Miguel Tejada and Eric Chavez. The 2002 season was the first year that I remember really getting into sports, and that Twins team saved baseball in Minnesota. I remember vividly watching Torii Hunter robbing Bonds at the All Star Game that year, and how the Twins went being a court order away from disappearing to the ALCS. It's still strange to watch the movie version and read the book with the Twins as the evil team.

[lordtoffee]

To answer your question, I would rank my teams winning a title like this.

1. Twins. I'm too young to remember 1987 and 1991. Thankfully the 0-18 playoff losing streak is over, and I was lucky enough to have been at Game 1 against the Blue Jays to see it happen. Getting to attend both a World Series game at Target Field and a World Series victory parade are the number one things on my sports fan bucket list.

2. Packers. I was a baby when Super Bowl XXXI happened, though I watched the game. Super Bowl XLV is a special memory, as even being deep in the heart of Vikings country I got a lot of congrats from Viking fan buddies the next day at school. Packers have been close too many times, and getting to capture that feeling again would be great.

3. Everton. I'm going to also count the FA Cup, League Cup, and any European competition for this. The last time Everton won a trophy, I was still in my mom's womb. I've never seen Everton play for a trophy, as I started following the club during the 2011-12 season. We have too many financial issues to sort out, but our new stadium is going to be a huge revenue generator that will help us. Plus, I saw Everton lose 4-0 to Minnesota United in a friendly after waiting a decade to see them in person.

4. Wisconsin. We have been close in both football and hoops, but haven't been able to get over the hump. With the new playoff format in college football, that is going to help us even thought the Big Ten is a tough neighborhood now with the West Coast 4 joining the conference. However, we have won Big Ten titles in both sports, and that's always nice.

5. US Soccer. Women have won two Women's World Cup titles since I've been following them, and we responded well after the disaster last summer in Australia. Men are getting better, but it is going to take time to get closer to the traditional powers in international soccer like Spain, Germany, Italy, France, Brazil, and Argentina. Our investment in youth development by US Soccer and MLS are already paying dividends.

[Dington]

To answer your question, I would rank my teams winning a title like this.

1. Twins. I'm too young to remember 1987 and 1991. Thankfully the 0-18 playoff losing streak is over, and I was lucky enough to have been at Game 1 against the Blue Jays to see it happen. Getting to attend both a World Series game at Target Field and a World Series victory parade are the number one things on my sports fan bucket list.

2. Packers. I was a baby when Super Bowl XXXI happened, though I watched the game. Super Bowl XLV is a special memory, as even being deep in the heart of Vikings country I got a lot of congrats from Viking fan buddies the next day at school. Packers have been close too many times, and getting to capture that feeling again would be great.

3. Everton. I'm going to also count the FA Cup, League Cup, and any European competition for this. The last time Everton won a trophy, I was still in my mom's womb. I've never seen Everton play for a trophy, as I started following the club during the 2011-12 season. We have too many financial issues to sort out, but our new stadium is going to be a huge revenue generator that will help us. Plus, I saw Everton lose 4-0 to Minnesota United in a friendly after waiting a decade to see them in person.

4. Wisconsin. We have been close in both football and hoops, but haven't been able to get over the hump. With the new playoff format in college football, that is going to help us even thought the Big Ten is a tough neighborhood now with the West Coast 4 joining the conference. However, we have won Big Ten titles in both sports, and that's always nice.

5. US Soccer. Women have won two Women's World Cup titles since I've been following them, and we responded well after the disaster last summer in Australia. Men are getting better, but it is going to take time to get closer to the traditional powers in international soccer like Spain, Germany, Italy, France, Brazil, and Argentina. Our investment in youth development by US Soccer and MLS are already paying dividends.

Ooh good point about USMNT. I'll take that over a Monty.

[lordtoffee]

To answer your question, I would rank my teams winning a title like this.

1. Twins. I'm too young to remember 1987 and 1991. Thankfully the 0-18 playoff losing streak is over, and I was lucky enough to have been at Game 1 against the Blue Jays to see it happen. Getting to attend both a World Series game at Target Field and a World Series victory parade are the number one things on my sports fan bucket list.

2. Packers. I was a baby when Super Bowl XXXI happened, though I watched the game. Super Bowl XLV is a special memory, as even being deep in the heart of Vikings country I got a lot of congrats from Viking fan buddies the next day at school. Packers have been close too many times, and getting to capture that feeling again would be great.

3. Everton. I'm going to also count the FA Cup, League Cup, and any European competition for this. The last time Everton won a trophy, I was still in my mom's womb. I've never seen Everton play for a trophy, as I started following the club during the 2011-12 season. We have too many financial issues to sort out, but our new stadium is going to be a huge revenue generator that will help us. Plus, I saw Everton lose 4-0 to Minnesota United in a friendly after waiting a decade to see them in person.

4. Wisconsin. We have been close in both football and hoops, but haven't been able to get over the hump. With the new playoff format in college football, that is going to help us even thought the Big Ten is a tough neighborhood now with the West Coast 4 joining the conference. However, we have won Big Ten titles in both sports, and that's always nice.

5. US Soccer. Women have won two Women's World Cup titles since I've been following them, and we responded well after the disaster last summer in Australia. Men are getting better, but it is going to take time to get closer to the traditional powers in international soccer like Spain, Germany, Italy, France, Brazil, and Argentina. Our investment in youth development by US Soccer and MLS are already paying dividends.

Ooh good point about USMNT. I'll take that over a Monty.

Especially since a World Cup only happens every 4 years, so there isn't that feeling of inevitability like in the BBA that if you didn't win the BBA this year, then you can make another run the next year. It's so amazing how different the international part of soccer and the club part of soccer require very different things to be successful.

[BTuck2112]

The Braves just won the 2021 World Series so it's easy for me, Falcons winning SB.