Are Drafts Shitty?

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Are Drafts Shitty?

Yes, BBA drafts are a joke. No one want's to rebuild because all they will get are a bunch of useless 45-50 POT scrubs in the first round.
2
25%
No, of course not silly. Drafts are fine. Stop crying about it. No one cares about your opinions.
6
75%
Who cares? Using the draft to rebuild is actually the least efficient way. You should be making good trades and looking for value.
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 8

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Lane
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Re: Are Drafts Shitty?

Post by Lane » Thu Dec 15, 2022 1:43 pm

looks like the last one of those that Ron did was 2045, where you can see that it's still top-heavy but not as bad.

viewtopic.php?f=23&t=37564&p=207938&hil ... gs#p207938
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Re: Are Drafts Shitty?

Post by BaseClogger » Thu Dec 15, 2022 7:14 pm

Lane wrote:
Thu Dec 15, 2022 1:41 pm
BaseClogger wrote:
Thu Dec 15, 2022 12:33 pm
The league feature highlighting the top 100 prospects is an encouraging start. 55 POT but warts or still extremely young is what seems about right for the last couple prospects included on that list.

For those of you who were in the league 10-15 seasons ago, was the top 100 prospect list littered with 70 POT prospects? How did that landscape look different?
yes, basically. in the late 30s early 40s the ENTIRE top 100 was 70+ POT. Generally about 40 or so rated at 80. see below:

viewtopic.php?f=23&t=27204&p=153746&hil ... gs#p153746

viewtopic.php?f=23&t=30532&p=173986&hil ... gs#p173986

viewtopic.php?f=23&t=29317&p=167034&hil ... gs#p167034
Those links perfectly answered my question. Thanks for such a helpful response!
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Re: Are Drafts Shitty?

Post by BaseClogger » Thu Dec 15, 2022 7:45 pm

Lane wrote:
Thu Dec 15, 2022 1:43 pm
looks like the last one of those that Ron did was 2045, where you can see that it's still top-heavy but not as bad.

viewtopic.php?f=23&t=37564&p=207938&hil ... gs#p207938
When did the league flirt with relative ratings? I think that would mess this retrospective up.
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Re: Are Drafts Shitty?

Post by Lane » Thu Dec 15, 2022 8:20 pm

you're welcome. yeah, the relative ratings changes will definitely shift things, but not by too much, since as Ron wrote, OOTP doesn't really handle it the way it should be.

as for the timing, i'd have to do some searching to try and find out. though I'm sure there's someone that remembers what season it was just from their memory.
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Re: Are Drafts Shitty?

Post by Jwalk100 » Thu Dec 15, 2022 11:01 pm

I plugged the 2053 numbers into Ron's spreadsheet.

Here are the results:

Screen Shot 2022-12-15 at 9.54.56 PM.png
Remember these are just prospects (less than 26 yrs old).

What does it mean?

The 'shitty' drafts are working.
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Re: Are Drafts Shitty?

Post by JimSlade » Thu Dec 15, 2022 11:47 pm

Yep, for real-life comparisons, I also went to 2016. My team had the first overall pick, which netted us...Mickey Moniak, whose only value, to date, is imagining how much fun Harry Kalas would have had saying his name.

I'm still new enough that I won't pass judgment on the draft. I do miss not being able to trade (and stockpile picks). I somehow feel better about drafting players with the 20-80 rating rather than the ones we use here, but that could just be a matter of perception. I do think the percentage of high- and mid-level prospects is reflective of real-life drafts

I think one of the biggest challenges in the BBA is having so many teams. Factor in supplemental picks, and the first pick in the 2nd round is near the 50th guy in the draft pool.

Other factors that I'm trying to work through, as I try to keep the faith that the draft can get me an occasional star and enough supplemental players, Is not comparing the draft to the recent windfall of GBA franchises scattering and inflating the free-agent pool. Also, I think the hard cap and limits on contract lengths lead to more volatile player movement, which further puts our view of the draft out of whack.

A couple of seasons from now I may look back and think I was really naive, but I believe it's a matter of finding the right balance of developing a roster in this particular league. I don't think you can look at the draft or any one means of roster construction in a vacuum.
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Re: Are Drafts Shitty?

Post by BaseClogger » Fri Dec 16, 2022 1:24 pm

Jwalk100 wrote:
Thu Dec 15, 2022 11:01 pm
I plugged the 2053 numbers into Ron's spreadsheet.

Here are the results:


Screen Shot 2022-12-15 at 9.54.56 PM.png

Remember these are just prospects (less than 26 yrs old).

What does it mean?

The 'shitty' drafts are working.
Those current counts are very similar to how I'd expect a real MLB top 100 prospect list to shake out.
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