What is your opinion of Aki Kondo as a free agent acquisition?

[niles08]

More interesting to me in this poll is how little I changed anyone's mind. I think most likely this is because BBA GMs tend to be very informed, rather than some sort of ignorant intransigence. But I did expect a couple more people to upgrade or downgrade their opinion.

I'm typically pretty much put in the same sentence of ignorant intransigence haha.

[RonCo]

Could be that the question was phrased more about quality of pitcher than quality of contract.

Almost everyone would be happy to add Kondo as their #1 or #2 for the short term. What's controversial is whether you'd be will to eat the albatross of those two option years blocking your ability to sign future contracts to do it.

[Ted]

Could be that the question was phrased more about quality of pitcher than quality of contract.

Almost everyone would be happy to add Kondo as their #1 or #2 for the short term. What's controversial is whether you'd be will to eat the albatross of those two option years blocking your ability to sign future contracts to do it.

I had a lot of difficulty phrasing the question. I retyped the options 3 or 4 times, because I really wanted to know more about their opinion of him over a 6 year time frame, but felt that people have such widely varying policies on spending that I feared bringing contracts and dollars into it would make the response meaningless.

[niles08]

Could be that the question was phrased more about quality of pitcher than quality of contract.

Almost everyone would be happy to add Kondo as their #1 or #2 for the short term. What's controversial is whether you'd be will to eat the albatross of those two option years blocking your ability to sign future contracts to do it.

I had a lot of difficulty phrasing the question. I retyped the options 3 or 4 times, because I really wanted to know more about their opinion of him over a 6 year time frame, but felt that people have such widely varying policies on spending that I feared bringing contracts and dollars into it would make the response meaningless.

I think that through 6 years, he is going to be wonderful for 2 seasons(ace), so-so(think #3 guy) for 2 seasons, and then hard to deal or "serviceable" as a back end option for 2 seasons. That' why I structured the contract how I did. If he opts out after 2 years and I've paid him $63 million for 2 years then so be it. I think I had the best 2 seasons of the 6 he'll have. If he stays another 2 years, i can live with it. It's unlikely he'll be worth $30 million or higher in the 5th and 6th seasons.

[Ted]

Could be that the question was phrased more about quality of pitcher than quality of contract.

Almost everyone would be happy to add Kondo as their #1 or #2 for the short term. What's controversial is whether you'd be will to eat the albatross of those two option years blocking your ability to sign future contracts to do it.

I had a lot of difficulty phrasing the question. I retyped the options 3 or 4 times, because I really wanted to know more about their opinion of him over a 6 year time frame, but felt that people have such widely varying policies on spending that I feared bringing contracts and dollars into it would make the response meaningless.

I think that through 6 years, he is going to be wonderful for 2 seasons(ace), so-so(think #3 guy) for 2 seasons, and then hard to deal with for 2 seasons. That' why I structured the contract how I did. If he opts out after 2 years and I've paid him $63 million for 2 years then so be it. I think I had the best 2 seasons of the 6 he'll have. If he stays another 2 years, i can live with it. It's unlikely he'll be worth $30 million or higher in the 5th and 6th seasons.

I think your expectations are spot on in terms of progression. I just don't know i I agree with the starting point, because I don't know what to expect out of his HRA rate. That's the big unknown, and I made a big deal out of it on purpose. And it's why I phrased the question to more ask what they think of him right now, even though I did kind of include long term prospects given the "as a free agent signing" wording. I suppose it's possible no one changed their mind because, like me, they don't really know what to make of it either.

[niles08]

I had a lot of difficulty phrasing the question. I retyped the options 3 or 4 times, because I really wanted to know more about their opinion of him over a 6 year time frame, but felt that people have such widely varying policies on spending that I feared bringing contracts and dollars into it would make the response meaningless.

I think that through 6 years, he is going to be wonderful for 2 seasons(ace), so-so(think #3 guy) for 2 seasons, and then hard to deal with for 2 seasons. That' why I structured the contract how I did. If he opts out after 2 years and I've paid him $63 million for 2 years then so be it. I think I had the best 2 seasons of the 6 he'll have. If he stays another 2 years, i can live with it. It's unlikely he'll be worth $30 million or higher in the 5th and 6th seasons.

I think your expectations are spot on in terms of progression. I just don't know i I agree with the starting point, because I don't know what to expect out of his HRA rate. That's the big unknown, and I made a big deal out of it on purpose. And it's why I phrased the question to more ask what they think of him right now, even though I did kind of include long term prospects given the "as a free agent signing" wording. I suppose it's possible no one changed their mind because, like me, they don't really know what to make of it either.

I fully expect him to give up 30 home runs a year. 12 was far from normal. His career says he should give up 30 a year and now he is coming to Omaha where our park is a 20% more likely to give up a homer than San Antonio was. That would have been roughly 3 more home runs last season so 15 instead of 12. If he was under 25 home runs a season these next 2, I would be ecstatic. I signed him for his "stuff" and "control" more than the mystery movement rating. He strikes guys out, which is an out that has no variables and takes defense completely out of the equation. With his control, he hopefully will walk just a few guys and most of the home runs allowed will be solo shots.

[Ted]

[

I fully expect him to give up 30 home runs a year. 12 was far from normal. His career says he should give up 30 a year and now he is coming to Omaha where our park is a 20% more likely to give up a homer than San Antonio was. That would have been roughly 3 more home runs last season so 15 instead of 12. If he was under 25 home runs a season these next 2, I would be ecstatic. I signed him for his "stuff" and "control" more than the mystery movement rating. He strikes guys out, which is an out that has no variables and takes defense completely out of the equation. With his control, he hopefully will walk just a few guys and most of the home runs allowed will be solo shots.

I get your reasoning. Again, this is why the question was hard to write. I was trying to figure out if people were considering his crazy outlier year in forming opinions on him, or if having it pointed out would change minds. It didn't seem to, and like I said I'd lean towards the cause of that being that like you, most people had already taken it into account.

[RonCo]

From a raw performance standpoint, Kondo is going to a horrible place for him, since his HR rate will explode in Omaha. So his raw HR/9 is almost certainly going to get much bigger. That's not really relevant to the question, though.

He's a #1/#2 kind of pitcher in those first couple years--which is not blistering, I mean, his liklihood of winning a Nebraska is not huge. I see him as I see Ernesto Ramos, who is a year younger. Ramos is our #2 behind Valle--and was our #3 before Carlos Pineda got hurt, we'll see what happens to Pineda.

One under-rated element of Kondo's makeup is his injury history and his proneness makes him a pretty highly reliable guy, so you can bank on him making it through the season without needing a back-up. Of course, that's also what I thought about Pineda.

[Ted]

From a raw performance standpoint, Kondo is going to a horrible place for him, since his HR rate will explode in Omaha. So his raw HR/9 is almost certainly going to get much bigger. That's not really relevant to the question, though.

He's a #1/#2 kind of pitcher in those first couple years--which is not blistering, I mean, his liklihood of winning a Nebraska is not huge. I see him as I see Ernesto Ramos, who is a year younger. Ramos is our #2 behind Valle--and was our #3 before Carlos Pineda got hurt, we'll see what happens to Pineda.

One under-rated element of Kondo's makeup is his injury history and his proneness makes him a pretty highly reliable guy, so you can bank on him making it through the season without needing a back-up. Of course, that's also what I thought about Pineda.

Yup. Durable pitchers are less likely to get injured until they do.

[RonCo]

I actually wonder if ballparks do anything to drive pitchers' decisions. For example, if I were a real pitcher, I'd make Colorado pay out the teeth in order to sign me, and, in reality, they may not even have enough money to get me to throw away my career by going there.

If I were Kondo, I'd give the deep pitcher's parks a major discount.

[niles08]

I actually wonder if ballparks do anything to drive pitchers' decisions. For example, if I were a real pitcher, I'd make Colorado pay out the teeth in order to sign me, and, in reality, they may not even have enough money to get me to throw away my career by going there.

If I were Kondo, I'd give the deep pitcher's parks a major discount.

They do the same thing in the AL West for those pitchers who have to face the Astros.