Pacific/Frontier ... They's a Wonderful Mess, Ain't they??

[RonCo]

The Sunbelt and Pacific have been dueling all year for rights to the name “most competitive division in baseball,” but now it appears that Phoenix has stepped out front in the Sunbelt, leaving the Pacific, and perhaps even more interestingly, the Frontier divisions as the gangs in mot doubt. With essentially 20 games left in the season, six teams are within 3.5 games of their lead spot—seven if you’re willing to extend down to Valencia at 4.5 games back in the Pacific.

As the schedule has it, this coming sim could go a long way toward cleaning things up—or not, depending.

PACIFIC SCRUM BEGINS NOW

In the Pacific, division leader California (with a 1.5 game gap) will face San Fernando to jump-start the sim. A victory would grant the Crusaders a small bit of breathing room. A loss will tighten a few sphincters as the team moves on to Ohio to face Heartland leader Yellow Springs. If the Bears are going to make the big move, one would think it’s got to be now as Randy Weigand’s team will continue a full-out home stand. Long Beach follows California in for three games, and then Vancouver tries to play spoiler. With the Crusaders out, er, crusading, the schedule screams for the Bears to hit the NOx now.

Hawaii will finish up a three game set with Long Beach, then go straight to Valencia for a three set match that, if one team were to sweep the other, could be a fulcrum either way. Regardless, two wins for either team seem like a must-have if dreams of the 2039 post season are to stay plausible. The Tropics play a lot of their final schedule on the road, but against Madison, Huntsville, and Twin Cities clubs that would seem to be beatable. At the end of the day, they probably just need to keep the nose to the grindmill and see what happens. If they can finish the sim still in the game, Mike Bieschke’s team will have a shot with their future in their own hads, as they’ve still got three-games series against both California and San Fernando coming up.

Effectively, the same can be said for Valencia. They have games with every team in front of them, but realistically, they probably need series wins against all of them to have a reasonable shot at catapulting to the top of the table.

PIONEERS IN THE FRONTIER DRIVERS SEAT?

With a 2.5 game lead, the Frontier is almost Calgary’s to lose. Key word: almost. This sim could go a good ways to solidifying that, though. Kevin Dickson’s team finishes with Seattle this week—a critical game against a division foe, then gets Vancouver at home for three games before going to Yellow Springs for four games. If they can emerge from this week with that 2.5 game lead intact, the clock might be running down on the rest of the division. If they can’t make that happen, they’ve got three games at Edmonton still sitting in the way and things could get very interesting.

The Jackrabbits will try to at least hold serve this week as they finish up most of the rest of their road schedule that includes an absolutely critical series in Seattle. This is probably the closest thing to a “must win” series Seattle has faced. At 3.5 games back of Calgary, they almost have to beat the Pioneers in tonight’s game, then take at least two of three from Edmonton to have a real chance, right? Well…maybe. That fact is that as long as the Storm can stay within hailing distance (get it? “Storm?” “Hailing” distance! God, I’m so funny) the club’s schedule turns both inviting and homeward. To me, Nathan’s team looks like a NASCAR driver sitting third with two laps to go in the race. All he needs is a little bobble from the guys ahead to jump the draft and slingshot ahead at the tape.

And, you know, while I think it would take a bit of Hail Marry kind of miracle, Mary occasionally does her thing. It's not impossible to see Boise making some kind of post season noise. StatsPlus even says they have .5% chance of taking the division and a 3% shot at hitting the playoffs. Their schedule is admittedly a bit rugged, but they still have games against each of their competitors. A sudden fever in Dennis French and crew, and we might find the Spuds suddenly mashing the division.

So, yeah, it’s a mess.

A total, glorious mess.

Who do you have to win?