Should Elroy Hinson Decline A Guaranteed 16.6 mil that Could Potentially be 30?
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Should Elroy Hinson Decline A Guaranteed 16.6 mil that Could Potentially be 30?
I'm going to do something new this offseason with free agents, so I figured I'd rack up some easy PP as a way to research the market. It should help you guys to with some questions I'll later be asking you. We've been wondering how good OOTP is at players judging the market when deciding on player opt outs and options. It does feel like a mixed bag so far. So, before we get to the wonderful day where we all figure out who is screwed and who is not so much, let's see what we think. Remember, I'm asking you, SHOULD this player opt out. Not whether you expect them to do so. With each player I ask about, I'll try to give a little background. Feel free to discuss.
Elroy Hinson
Hinson might be the best catcher of his generation. He's at least in the discussion. He's also just finished his age 37 season, in which he was injured. Still, he managed a slightly better than league average wRC+, which is pretty darned good for a catcher. He was worth 2.2 WAR in 2037, and 2.4 in 2036.
He has a 13 mil player option for 2038, and a 17.5 mil TO with a 3.6 mil buyout for 2039. So if he opts in, he guarantees himself 16.6 mil. If the TO is decline, he's only committing to one year. He's also with Madison who made the playoffs this year.
Should Elroy Hinson test his luck in free agency?
Elroy Hinson
Hinson might be the best catcher of his generation. He's at least in the discussion. He's also just finished his age 37 season, in which he was injured. Still, he managed a slightly better than league average wRC+, which is pretty darned good for a catcher. He was worth 2.2 WAR in 2037, and 2.4 in 2036.
He has a 13 mil player option for 2038, and a 17.5 mil TO with a 3.6 mil buyout for 2039. So if he opts in, he guarantees himself 16.6 mil. If the TO is decline, he's only committing to one year. He's also with Madison who made the playoffs this year.
Should Elroy Hinson test his luck in free agency?
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Re: Should Elroy Hinson Decline A Guaranteed 16.6 mil that Could Potentially be 30?
He should opt out. Hard to find a good catcher these days. Maybe the toughest position to fill. He is also a captain and extremely popular. So he is a great fit for a contender or a rebuilder. Could have as many as 15-20 teams who'd at least kick the tires. Probably a couple willing to get in bidding war. He will be one of the overpays of the winter.
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Re: Should Elroy Hinson Decline A Guaranteed 16.6 mil that Could Potentially be 30?
I think he would get at least 13M on the market. 17.5 isnt real anyway. Opt out, maybe get a real 2 year 25M deal. Heck, even 2 year 18M might work out in his favor.
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Re: Should Elroy Hinson Decline A Guaranteed 16.6 mil that Could Potentially be 30?
I find it funny at this point how Madison was laughed at in a podcast over the Hinson signing. About the signing making no sense and having overpaid for a catcher for a team that won 69 games last season.
I think you could justify Hinson opting in or out really. $13 million is a good amount for a player under a 3 WAR but he's also likely to be the top available free agent catcher if he opts out.
I've got decisions to make regarding what he decides though.....
I think you could justify Hinson opting in or out really. $13 million is a good amount for a player under a 3 WAR but he's also likely to be the top available free agent catcher if he opts out.
I've got decisions to make regarding what he decides though.....
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Re: Should Elroy Hinson Decline A Guaranteed 16.6 mil that Could Potentially be 30?
I shouldn't take the bait, but this is the third or fourth time you've made a statement about this and I suck at keeping my mouth shut. Madison had just posted seasons of 77, 79, and 69 wins. I have admitted multiple times I didn't notice the number of young good offensive players Madison had. Sometimes I'm wrong. In fact, often I'm wrong. I have no problem admitting it. However, having seen those records, noticing that guys like Mick and Dempsey were getting older, and like I said, not seeing some of the young bats, I don't think it's unreasonable at all to say that a team signing an expensive 37 year old catcher to a short team deal looks like a bad fit.7teen wrote: ↑Wed Feb 20, 2019 12:20 pmI find it funny at this point how Madison was laughed at in a podcast over the Hinson signing. About the signing making no sense and having overpaid for a catcher for a team that won 69 games last season.
I think you could justify Hinson opting in or out really. $13 million is a good amount for a player under a 3 WAR but he's also likely to be the top available free agent catcher if he opts out.
I've got decisions to make regarding what he decides though.....
I'm not sure what your point is in making this statement multiple times this season besides pointing out that I and other people on the podcast were wrong. Well, it's baseball. It's hard to get right every time. So yes, you were right and I was wrong. Are you happy now? Or are you just going to keep pointing out that a prediction made in a podcast was wrong? Tell you what. Since you don't seem to like when people are down on your team, I won't write any more preview about you or discuss Madison ever again, unless I'm sure you'll win 100 games. Only positive stuff from now on. That way, you'll never have to "find anything funny" again, and won't have to feel slighted. There. Fixed.
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Re: Should Elroy Hinson Decline A Guaranteed 16.6 mil that Could Potentially be 30?
Hey, I was kinda down on that deal at the time, too...part of the cost of having opinions is that sometimes it turns out you're wrong.
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Re: Should Elroy Hinson Decline A Guaranteed 16.6 mil that Could Potentially be 30?
Nope, that was my point all along. To point out you all were wrong. And to do so several times.Ted wrote: ↑Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:53 pmI shouldn't take the bait, but this is the third or fourth time you've made a statement about this and I suck at keeping my mouth shut. Madison had just posted seasons of 77, 79, and 69 wins. I have admitted multiple times I didn't notice the number of young good offensive players Madison had. Sometimes I'm wrong. In fact, often I'm wrong. I have no problem admitting it. However, having seen those records, noticing that guys like Mick and Dempsey were getting older, and like I said, not seeing some of the young bats, I don't think it's unreasonable at all to say that a team signing an expensive 37 year old catcher to a short team deal looks like a bad fit.7teen wrote: ↑Wed Feb 20, 2019 12:20 pmI find it funny at this point how Madison was laughed at in a podcast over the Hinson signing. About the signing making no sense and having overpaid for a catcher for a team that won 69 games last season.
I think you could justify Hinson opting in or out really. $13 million is a good amount for a player under a 3 WAR but he's also likely to be the top available free agent catcher if he opts out.
I've got decisions to make regarding what he decides though.....
I'm not sure what your point is in making this statement multiple times this season besides pointing out that I and other people on the podcast were wrong. Well, it's baseball. It's hard to get right every time. So yes, you were right and I was wrong. Are you happy now? Or are you just going to keep pointing out that a prediction made in a podcast was wrong? Tell you what. Since you don't seem to like when people are down on your team, I won't write any more preview about you or discuss Madison ever again, unless I'm sure you'll win 100 games. Only positive stuff from now on. That way, you'll never have to "find anything funny" again, and won't have to feel slighted. There. Fixed.
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Re: Should Elroy Hinson Decline A Guaranteed 16.6 mil that Could Potentially be 30?
Hey remember the time you traded a potential silk winner only a few games into his career for an over the hill RHP and a RH 1B so you can keep a declining DH masquerading as a RF? Fun times.7teen wrote: ↑Thu Feb 21, 2019 11:16 amNope, that was my point all along. To point out you all were wrong. And to do so several times.Ted wrote: ↑Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:53 pmI shouldn't take the bait, but this is the third or fourth time you've made a statement about this and I suck at keeping my mouth shut. Madison had just posted seasons of 77, 79, and 69 wins. I have admitted multiple times I didn't notice the number of young good offensive players Madison had. Sometimes I'm wrong. In fact, often I'm wrong. I have no problem admitting it. However, having seen those records, noticing that guys like Mick and Dempsey were getting older, and like I said, not seeing some of the young bats, I don't think it's unreasonable at all to say that a team signing an expensive 37 year old catcher to a short team deal looks like a bad fit.7teen wrote: ↑Wed Feb 20, 2019 12:20 pmI find it funny at this point how Madison was laughed at in a podcast over the Hinson signing. About the signing making no sense and having overpaid for a catcher for a team that won 69 games last season.
I think you could justify Hinson opting in or out really. $13 million is a good amount for a player under a 3 WAR but he's also likely to be the top available free agent catcher if he opts out.
I've got decisions to make regarding what he decides though.....
I'm not sure what your point is in making this statement multiple times this season besides pointing out that I and other people on the podcast were wrong. Well, it's baseball. It's hard to get right every time. So yes, you were right and I was wrong. Are you happy now? Or are you just going to keep pointing out that a prediction made in a podcast was wrong? Tell you what. Since you don't seem to like when people are down on your team, I won't write any more preview about you or discuss Madison ever again, unless I'm sure you'll win 100 games. Only positive stuff from now on. That way, you'll never have to "find anything funny" again, and won't have to feel slighted. There. Fixed.
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Re: Should Elroy Hinson Decline A Guaranteed 16.6 mil that Could Potentially be 30?
Yep, and you are fair enough in reminding me of that boneheaded move as many times as you feel fit.usnspecialist wrote: ↑Thu Feb 21, 2019 11:33 amHey remember the time you traded a potential silk winner only a few games into his career for an over the hill RHP and a RH 1B so you can keep a declining DH masquerading as a RF? Fun times.
I could write a book on bad trades.
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Re: Should Elroy Hinson Decline A Guaranteed 16.6 mil that Could Potentially be 30?
Having translucent skin coupled with a dull axe to grind is a really great way to discourage people from putting effort into doing podcasts. They are already WILDLY inefficient ways to accrue PP. Don't tack on the drama of having to field snarky comments against takes they had real life months ago.
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Re: Should Elroy Hinson Decline A Guaranteed 16.6 mil that Could Potentially be 30?
Hey... have fun making predictions and have as much fun when they're wrong as you do when they're right.
The whole point of the "prediction economy" of current day sports broadcasters is about entertainment ...
The whole point of the "prediction economy" of current day sports broadcasters is about entertainment ...
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Re: Should Elroy Hinson Decline A Guaranteed 16.6 mil that Could Potentially be 30?
That said, yes, especially for the guy doing the packaging, podcasts are mega-time sinks. I can sometimes take 4-5 hours editing a podcast...all for 5 points. That time could be spent doing 10-20 TNs.agrudez wrote: ↑Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:10 pmHaving translucent skin coupled with a dull axe to grind is a really great way to discourage people from putting effort into doing podcasts. They are already WILDLY inefficient ways to accrue PP. Don't tack on the drama of having to field snarky comments against takes they had real life months ago.
But ... I also think part of the fun of making assessments is knowing I can get shit for being wrong. I said Matt wouldn't be happy with the contract he gave Hinson some time ago, and was half-right...he got hurt and sucked, but Matt traded him to MEX and he got better. I suggested the deal he signed with MEX was equally bad, and I was equally wrong. Fred got value, traded him, and Chris got value. So, good on Hinson, and good on Chris.
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Re: Should Elroy Hinson Decline A Guaranteed 16.6 mil that Could Potentially be 30?
Giving shit in present tense is fine - it sparks debate. I'm sure I had plenty of fire after the podcast where they predicted no playoffs for HSV until 2038 came out. And now - thanks to, from what I will from now on refer to, "Ted's curse" - in retrospect I'll look like an ass if someone quotes them. Ted apparently has better things to do with his life than try to rub my nose in shit for no other reason than to try to make me smell it, though.
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Re: Should Elroy Hinson Decline A Guaranteed 16.6 mil that Could Potentially be 30?
I actually don't have better things to do. My life is pretty dull. And I wouldn't have made that prediction if HSV had a stable GM. They had an absentee GM and were in bad shape when I made it, so low hanging fruit and all.agrudez wrote: ↑Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:04 pmGiving shit in present tense is fine - it sparks debate. I'm sure I had plenty of fire after the podcast where they predicted no playoffs for HSV until 2038 came out. And now - thanks to, from what I will from now on refer to, "Ted's curse" - in retrospect I'll look like an ass if someone quotes them. Ted apparently has better things to do with his life than try to rub my nose in shit for no other reason than to try to make me smell it, though.
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Re: Should Elroy Hinson Decline A Guaranteed 16.6 mil that Could Potentially be 30?
Come play Everquest progression servers with me. Then we can play World of Warcraft Classic in the summer. And then Pantheon in 2025 or whatever.
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Re: Should Elroy Hinson Decline A Guaranteed 16.6 mil that Could Potentially be 30?
My constant mention of the fact Hinson turned out alright was made more over the presentation of the podcast than anything. Honestly I don't listen to any of the podcasts. Those who do them, kudos to you guys. I just don't have the personal time to listen to them. My constant reference of this move was made more over how I interpreted the signing as mocking by those who did the podcast (Ted, Randy, etc...) Feel free to do previews and comment away guys. I'm never one to bash participation or whatever. But when you spend 3+ minutes basically laughing over Madison's roster and only briefly mention the Hinson signing then expect me to comment and call you out when you are wrong. This isn't directed at anyone personally just whoever does it.
FWIW, Randy took a few laughing jabs over me trading him Luis Maldonado again. Both in this thread and in that podcast. If I'm Randy, I continue to make those jabs from now until eternity. He got the better end of that deal by a landslide and it's going down as one of my worst trades ever. I've admitted to that and make the comments myself. Fire away! I deserve them. But Kyle your argument would then be I shouldn't make any trades if Randy keeps bringing that one up for fear of being bashed over them.
But again, it is what it is. They made a prediction. They were wrong. I've commented on it. Repeatedly. So be it!
FWIW, Randy took a few laughing jabs over me trading him Luis Maldonado again. Both in this thread and in that podcast. If I'm Randy, I continue to make those jabs from now until eternity. He got the better end of that deal by a landslide and it's going down as one of my worst trades ever. I've admitted to that and make the comments myself. Fire away! I deserve them. But Kyle your argument would then be I shouldn't make any trades if Randy keeps bringing that one up for fear of being bashed over them.
But again, it is what it is. They made a prediction. They were wrong. I've commented on it. Repeatedly. So be it!
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Re: Should Elroy Hinson Decline A Guaranteed 16.6 mil that Could Potentially be 30?
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Re: Should Elroy Hinson Decline A Guaranteed 16.6 mil that Could Potentially be 30?
Chris, I never intend to mock anyone. If it came across that way, I apologize. I will be critical of things I think are bad moves. If I don't it's just boring. Same as I will say things I think are good are good. I have no problem if you call me out when I was wrong. That's absolutely fine. The reason I responded is because all of your repeated posts were on the line of "Isn't it funny that .." which to me sounds like someone who wants to call attention to how they were right and someone else was wrong, which I think is pretty childish and silly. Perhaps I misinterpreted your tone and overreacted. I try to keep the tone of my critiques of other GMs moves rather neutral and professional when I do it, however know I'm not always successful with this. Part of this is because I'm a born know it all. I know it can be obnoxious. When alcohol gets involved is probably when things slip the most. I will try to do better in the future.
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