Should HSV Non-Tender Yelainen?

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Should I Keep Yelainen?

Ye
3
38%
lai
0
No votes
nen
5
63%
 
Total votes: 8

agrudez
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Should HSV Non-Tender Yelainen?

Post by agrudez » Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:49 pm

Inspired by Ted's slew of polls, here's one that I wouldn't mind some input on.

3B Leyli Yelainen is a soon to be 27 year old that was posting borderline all-star level stats prior to coming to HSV (averaging 3.2 WAR/season over the 4 years prior) that has promptly - and, honestly, bewilderingly - played like crap the past 2 years in HSV (.671 and .695 OPS and 1.7 combined WAR over 2 years). He hasn't lost any ratings (minus the league-wide recalculation) until recently when his CON dropped from a '6' to a '5' (which may or may not be fluctuation because he had this same POT back in 2031). The talent is there and he *should* be a perfect player for HSV, but he just hasn't worked out. Now, he is looking at an arb estimate of 8.1M for his last year of team cost control coming up... and it's a tough call.

I tried to make a move mid-season to blunt the "impact" of losing him by picking up Bedolla (whom hands down outplayed Yelainen at the hot corner during their respective times playing the position for HSV) which pushed Yelainen to 2B for the rest of the year (where he managed pretty admirably defensively - posting a -0.2 ZR in 91 games), but trading Guzman left a gap at 2B for next season, too (plus trading Sullivan left a gap at SS). The other side of the coin, though, is that I have a ton of cap space available for the offseason. Currently I sit at 84.5M for a payroll in 2038, but Workman is on the next flight out of town to free up 9.5M to put me at 35M free for FA. Walking away from Yelainen's current arb estimate would balloon that to 43.1M. That's obviously more than enough to grab a new double play combo - though the bigger question is whether or not one will be available.

So... what do you think? Keep dreaming on Yelainen's "talent" and hoping for him to start giving a shit in a contract year (net benefit is that if this fantasy becomes reality we'll get a comp pick for him)? Or cut our losses and walk into the offseason with piles of cash?
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Re: Should HSV Non-Tender Yelainen?

Post by Ted » Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:57 pm

He is so weird. Only marginal BABIP, SO% and BB% decreases, yet somehow his wRC+drops 60 points. It's mind boggling. I just don't get it.

I'd say play him, but get an insurance policy. You'd be selling low. If you need his cap space back, the story changes, but if you don't, 8 mil's a gamble I'd take to see if I can get some value back.

Also, he's an interesting test case for arb. He doesn't deserve the 2 mil increase from 6 to 8 he's slated for. How low can you get the increase?
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Re: Should HSV Non-Tender Yelainen?

Post by agrudez » Tue Feb 19, 2019 2:07 pm

Ted wrote:
Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:57 pm
Also, he's an interesting test case for arb. He doesn't deserve the 2 mil increase from 6 to 8 he's slated for. How low can you get the increase?
Player evaluations of worth (arb cases, initial FA demands, etc.) are based more on talent than production. That is why I used to love to find those 1.5 star LH'd bats with extreme splits that would play way above their pay grade in platoons and never ask for pay raises (Eric Rouse is still near and dear to my heart). So, sadly, I'm pretty sure if I come in with a lowball he'll end up getting 10.5M or something stupid.
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Re: Should HSV Non-Tender Yelainen?

Post by ae37jr » Wed Feb 20, 2019 7:01 am

I think he'll bounce back. But still, cut him. This is going to be a good free agent class. Flores, Dempster, and 75 percent of these poll players are going to hit the market. Save the cash for an elite player or two since you already have Bedolla at 3b.
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