Should Alfredo Martinez Opt Out of 35.42 Million?

[Ted]

I'm going to do something new this offseason with free agents, so I figured I'd rack up some easy PP as a way to research the market. It should help you guys to with some questions I'll later be asking you. We've been wondering how good OOTP is at players judging the market when deciding on player opt outs and options. It does feel like a mixed bag so far. So, before we get to the wonderful day where we all figure out who is screwed and who is not so much, let's see what we think. Remember, I'm asking you, SHOULD this player opt out. Not whether you expect them to do so. With each player I ask about, I'll try to give a little background. Feel free to discuss.

Alfredo Martinez

The story with Martinez has always been injuries. This man once put up 7 win seasons while missing 20-30 games. He seems at most only a little off his peak offensively, but his glove has seen better days. The one time centerfielder is now a slight liability on a corner spot, which is probably the largest detractor from his recent WARs. In 2037, his age 31 season, he made it into 118 games for .265/.376/.536 line worth a 135 wRC+. That's well below his career mark of 150, but still excellent. He was worth 3.1 WAR. IN 2036 he was worth 5.1 in 139 games. Will he bounce back? Or is this the new norm? His BABIP is in line with recent years, but his SO and BB percentages both took hits. His ratings appears largely unchanged from the past few years (with the exception of his declining defense).

This has been the third year of a 5 year, 88.5 million dollar deal signed prior to the 2035 season. He made 17.71 mil this year, and will be guaranteed that amount next year, and can make the same in 2039 if he chooses to pick up a player option that year. Brooklyn is a playoff team this year, but has a budget dis tater looming and will likely be a shell of itself going forward. Again, I don't know how sophisticated OOTP is about this.

Should Alfredo Martinez opt out and become a free agent, or should he take the 34+ million he has on the table?

[usnspecialist]

injury prone guys should never opt out of big money deals.

[Ted]

injury prone guys should never opt out of big money deals.

I'd normally agree with this, but three bats that are decidedly worse than him just got 20-25 million last year. He'd be one of the best beats in FA. gotta keep the recent market in mind.

[agrudez]

No doubt in my mind that Martinez would get a better deal on the open market. Easily in the 20-25M range over multiple years, imo. That said, I don't think he will opt out. No real rhyme or reason - just a gut feeling.

[Ted]

No doubt in my mind that Martinez would get a better deal on the open market. Easily in the 20-25M range over multiple years, imo. That said, I don't think he will opt out. No real rhyme or reason - just a gut feeling.

Remember, I'm asking you to vote as to what he SHOULD do, not what you think he will do. Not saying you are doing otherwise, just wanted to remind people. It can get tough to keep track.

[agrudez]

Remember, I'm asking you to vote as to what he SHOULD do, not what you think he will do. Not saying you are doing otherwise, just wanted to remind people. It can get tough to keep track.

I gotcha - am trying to put myself in the player's agents shoes. It's a really fun exercise, fwiw.

[Ted]

Yeah, I like it. The Demsey one has surprisingly been the hardest for me. I am sorry for spamming the board, but I think it's a worthwhile exercise to both see what our GMs think and see how that matches up to OOTP.

[ae37jr]

Either way Martinez will essentially be a free agent. I plan on retaining most/all of his contract and taking the highest cash offer if he doesn't opt out. #Brooklynisburning.

Trade block is updated for the fire sale. I'll bump for the masses after Rockville sweeps us tonight.

[RonCo]

I think he makes more if he opts out, and I think a real A-Mart would move off Brooklyn in a heartbeat with the advertisements about their goals. If I were his agent I'd be saying that now is the time to get to the market.