Should Alfredo Salazar Pick Up His Option for 2038?

[Ted]

I'm going to do something new this offseason with free agents, so I figured I'd rack up some easy PP as a way to research the market. It should help you guys to with some questions I'll later be asking you. We've been wondering how good OOTP is at players judging the market when deciding on player opt outs and options. It does feel like a mixed bag so far. So, before we get to the wonderful day where we all figure out who is screwed and who is not so much, let's see what we think. Remember, I'm asking you, SHOULD this player opt out. Not whether you expect them to do so. With each player I ask about, I'll try to give a little background.

Alfredo Salazar

Salazar was at one time one of the most feared bats in the Brewster. He was a 5 or better win player through his age 33 season in 2034, showing pretty good longevity. But in 2035 he fell off a cliff, posting a .255/.370/.406 line for a 97 wRC+. His career mark was around 140 at that point. His fielding had regressed at that point as well to merely mediocre, after being a strength for most of his career. Salazar was good for 1.3 WAR that year.

Prior to the 2036 season, Atlantic City gambled on a bounce back and gave him 54 million over 3 years, with the first two guaranteed, and the third a 12 million dollar player option. Salazar did fairly well in year one, .266/.365/.519, 127 wRC+ and 3.7 WAR. This year he was okay, .232/.356/.448, 110 wRC+, 2.0 WAR.

Salazar will be 37 in 2038, and he can either take 12 million to play that year, or become a free agent. I do not know if OOTP is sophisticated enough that a player would look at the team he is projected to be on. Atlantic City was bad this year. Should Salazar take his 12 million or go to free agency in hope of a multi year deal nets him more?

[Ted]

Do you guys want these votes visible? I was going to wait until I closed the polls, because I didn't want you influencing each other too much, but I can make them visible if you want.

[usnspecialist]

no because I cant see anyone giving him 12 guaranteed this offseason.

[agrudez]

I wouldn't give it to him, but he seems like a candidate for a 3x10-ish deal. So... I guess the calculus for him is whether or not he thinks his recent ratings drips are portends for disaster or if he thinks he can keep it together one more year (ratings and production-wise), make his 12M and then get a 3x10-ish next year instead. Ultimately, I think the risk v reward from Salazar's perspective isn't that great in the latter case and he should opt out and try to get the longer term deal now while his earning potential is still mostly in tact.

[RonCo]

If OOTP is capable of thinking this way, Salazar might opt out to sign a cut-rate deal on a contender.