The Pucketts - Chip and Charles

[Lane]

I was updating the Unified History yesterday, and started working on a feature that I'll probably submit for the Media Guide (if I finish in time).

Anyway, Chip Puckett (.321/.392/.426, 11 HR, 113 RBI) (son of some dude named Charles Puckett (.313/.416/.539, 695 HR, 2071 RBI)) made his first All-Star appearance this year.

It just so happens that his dad holds the BBA record with 19 All-Star appearances. So it begs the question, how many All-Star games Chip Puckett (9/8/3/7/9 Talents) appear in?

[RonCo]

That's an interesting question. I selected 7-10, but so much uncertainty exists in a 21 year old. His brilliance with the glove sets him aside, though. Barring a development hit, it could be more.

[agrudez]

He had a .3572 BABIP this season as someone whom should have a <.3 BABIP (since his AVK>CON) so he's not an insurmountable obstacle. Between expected regression of stats (granted, not enough to keep him from being really good - especially with that glove) and potential for injury/ratings drips I think 7-10 is a big ask - for anyone. 3-6 feels like a safe, reasonable play.

[RonCo]

I don't have calculations and performance maps in front of me, so I could be wrong, but I think Puckett's BABIP projects to much higher than .300. So while I could be wrong, seeing that he's never created shy of .308 at any level (over more than 2500 at bats) for a whole season I'm pretty comfortable with that statement.

[agrudez]

Are you looking at Charles or Chip? Chip had a .277 aggregate BABIP over 487 AA+AAA innings in 2034.

At any rate, I'd be interested in seeing your maps, et al. when you have them. Maybe I'm not factoring his low POW enough into my BABIP expectation. In general, though, the AVK>CON=<.300 BABIP (and vice versa) has been a solid rule of thumb for me.

[RonCo]

Chip. Add all his numbers that year together and you get .308.

I'm fairly sure Markus wouldn't be happy if I shared the maps I've created...you can do it yourself with considerable work, though.

But I can tell you directly that your rule of thumb is not a very good rule of thumb because while it's right on occasion, there are far too many cases where it is wrong for it to be a reliable read. Here's an example directly from the editor where I hold AVK and BABIP constant and adjust POWER, then display CON.

Code: Select all

Example of  	Avk	BABIP	POW	CON
AVK > CON	100	100	1	90
AVK <= CON	100	100	100	101
AVK < CON	100	100	200	144

[RonCo]

Here's the same structure with the OOTP estimates for stats:

Code: Select all

Example of  	Avk	BABIP	POW	CON		AB	H	HR	SO	AVG	BABIP
AVK > CON	100	100	1	90		550	135	0	100	0.245	0.300
AVK <= CON	100	100	100	101		550	146	16	100	0.265	0.300
AVK < CON	100	100	200	144		550	170	50	100	0.309	0.300

[agrudez]

So POW does factor more than I thought, then. I'll have to find some time to do some leg work on my end to recalibrate. Thanks.

That said, isn't Chip kind of example #1? His POW is really low and CON is just slightly under AVK - all like example #1, so now you might expect BABIP to be right around .300 based on that. Certainly not nearly .36 at any rate.

[RonCo]

Here is one with a case on the extremes from the editor added at the bottom:

Code: Select all

Example of  	Avk	BABIP	POW	CON		AB	H	HR	SO	AVG	BABIP
AVK > CON	100	100	1	90		550	135	0	100	0.245	0.300
AVK <= CON	100	100	100	101		550	146	16	100	0.265	0.300
AVK < CON	100	100	200	144		550	170	50	100	0.309	0.300
											
AVK < CON	210	200	1	226		550	215	0	12	0.391	0.400

[RonCo]

Just in case...I had to edit that quickly because I left the wrong number in the Ks.

[RonCo]

And another with POWER also amped:

Code: Select all

Example of  	Avk	BABIP	POW	CON		AB	H	HR	SO	AVG	BABIP
AVK > CON	100	100	1	90		550	135	0	100	0.245	0.300
AVK <= CON	100	100	100	101		550	146	16	100	0.265	0.300
AVK < CON	100	100	200	144		550	170	50	100	0.309	0.300
											
AVK < CON	210	200	1	226		550	215	0	12	0.391	0.400
AVK < CON	210	200	200	250		550	245	50	12	0.445	0.400

[RonCo]

You can make hundreds or thousands of cases where AVK < CON and BABIP > .300.

[7teen]

Chip can't carry Charles' jock strap!

Actually he did one time in the locker room as a little tyke running around in Madison's clubhouse. I think the little fella was wearing it on his head.

[Lane]

only 10 votes? would like to put this in my media guide feature but would love more than 1/3 of the managers responding.

[udlb58]

I think Tu-fu is going to take more than a couple all-star bids from him, and Gonzalez and Compton will also snag a couple.

Voted 3-6, but I think it's even on the low end of that (3-4)