Will Carlos Gonzales Opt-Out?

[Lane]

Long Beach's favorite outfielder, Carlos Gonzales signed a 6-year $84 million extension prior to the 2035 season. At his request, he was granted a player option following the second year of the deal. It's a straight $14 million/year deal with the 6th year (2040) as a player option.

So far this year he's hitting .310/.347/.541 (128 OPS+) good for 1.7 WAR.

Will he leave $56 million on the table and opt for free agency at age 32?

[bcslouck]

I think he will.

[ae37jr]

This is a tough one. I think someone would pay him more then 4/$56. A lot of teams have had money but not much to spend it on recently. But there is a possibility they don't. There are a lot of young corner outfielders around so his market may not be as big as it should be. If I were his agent I would tell him to stay with Long Beach as the co-face of the franchise(Simpson). But if he's looking to make $25+ like all the kids seems to be asking for these days, then he'll probably opt out and sign for 4/$40 in February.

[Ted]

But if he's looking to make $25+ like all the kids seems to be asking for these days, then he'll probably opt out and sign for 4/$40 in February.

This.

[agrudez]

If he hits the market I'll have the money currently slated for Sandcastle's 16M team option waiting for him.

[RonCo]

I'll say no just to be an outlier. The actual answer is I have no ideas.

[RonCo]

I'm interested in how these decisions and the large extension demands will combine to adjust the economy of the league. We see some very large over-pays at times right now, but that's at least partially due to deep inefficiencies ... a few teams run very low payrolls, and very few stars show up on the horizon, so when one does, these deep pockets drop a ton on them. When, however, the market has 10 serious players in it rather than just one or two, will we still see $25M-$30M contracts happen? Or will we see them at least reduce in numbers?

If so, how will that affect subsequent requests. I think I know how the game is "supposed" to work, but mostly I find the game rarely works like people say it does. I'm fascinated to watch how the world changes.

Relative to this question: I think he would have opted out earlier because players seemed to always opt out. Now I'm not sure. $14M for his numbers is probably about true market value. He'll do better if someone overpays, of course, and if I were his agent I'd probably be suggesting he give it a try. But it's a true flip of the coin on his part.

[Lane]

Yeah, I think the number is right about what he's worth/will be worth. I'm hoping his loyalty to the team keeps him from opting out, because I'd rather not have to fight over him in free agency. But next year's class should be better, so that will either make him cheaper, or give me other worthwhile players to spend my money on.

[Lane]

He opted out! Asking for big money. Extension before FA highly unlikely. Happy bidding, folks!

[indiansfan]

Ouch! Sorry man.