Is Dashiell Faireborn the BBA’s Ozzie Smith in Process?

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Is Dashiell Faireborn the BBA’s Ozzie Smith in Process?

Post by RonCo » Mon Jan 21, 2019 1:39 pm

July, 2037 - A semi-quick dwelling on Dashiell R. Faireborn

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So, my All-Star ballot talk with Stephen got me interested in Dashiell R. Faireborn and his 13+ Zone rating. I mean, how good is he, right? The next guys are at 6.8 and 6.9, so does that mean he’s twice as good? And twice as good, relative to what? My point on the podcast was that this was an big-assed, audacious number, but am I right?

Part of the issue is that we don’t completely know what ZR is doing, and there’s a bit of noise in it. And, at the end of the day what we really care about is what happen on the field. I’ve been working on that problem with the script I wrote that parses game logs and gives us “true” data on team defense as OOTP’s engine sees it (note to self: update for June…). But that study can’t really help because I can’t yet get to individual stats.

Luckily, OOTP comes to the rescue here, because (assuming no bugs), a simple filter on defensive stats allows anyone who wants to look more deeply into individual performance to do so. So that’s what I did this morning. I took a defensive filter that included all the BIZ columns, then filtered by shortstop, and pulled a report into my browser. I pasted that into Excel…Voila!…instant database. From that point, I:
  • Sorted out players with less than 100 Total Chances
  • Ignored the “Impossible” column
  • Calculated the total number of plays actually made by each shortstop and the total number of BIZ in all other columns.
  • Added up all the BIZ of each quality (Routine, Expected, etc), and calculated the percentage of plays made of each across the entire league.
  • Assumed these calculations represented an average defensive performance for a shortstop.
  • For each player’s BIZ scatter, calculated the number of Plays Made an average shortstop would be expected to make given the same opportunity.
  • Calculated each shortstop’s current “Plays Above Average” by subtracting the average player’s Plays Made from his actual plays.
To get some context, I plotted each shortstop in a ZR/PAA chart.

2037-ss-ZR-PAA.png
2037-ss-ZR-PAA.png (11.77 KiB) Viewed 2772 times

Bottom line is, yes, Dashiell R. Faireborn looks like a freak. But, then again, so does Jared Thealer, just in an opposite fashion. Faireborn registers 23.9 plays above the average fielder—a number that is a massive outlier and, quite honestly, makes me feel better about my All-Star vote. At the end of the day, the PAA gap between Faireborn and the next guy is actually bigger than the gap in his Zone ratings (note, I think this is because on routine plays, he’s merely good rather than scintillating).

I have no idea if he’s going to keep this level of dominance up. I also don’t know how the league’s ratings will move over time (remember, these numbers are created by the relative performance of the players…which are obviously affected by their ratings, but while ratings are solid, on-field performance is relative—if every shortstop in the league suddenly became 11/11/11/11, Faireborn would become below average).

But, let’s say he did keep this up.

Are we watching a young Ozzie Smith at play?
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Re: Is Dashiell Faireborn the BBA’s Ozzie Smith in Process?

Post by Ted » Mon Jan 21, 2019 2:18 pm

He'd have to keep if up for a long, long time. I'm a Cards guy, so I get that I have bias when it comes to the Wizard, but people have simply forgotten how much better he was defensively than everyone else, and for how long. (The Omar Vizquel comps particularly drive me insane. Ozzie provided 50% more defensive value in total over his career over (by the best we can measure, which is frankly not particularly great), AND was a better hitter relative to his peers. The eye test backs it up too. Compared to his peers, Ozzie just got to balls that you couldn't believe were possible. Vizquel was very good, but never made me say, "What? Wait ..... How?) Anyway, back to the Brewster. If we're going to take Ozzie's 44.2 career DWAR (baseball reference, more than Harold Baines total WAR, lol), and say 10 ZR is roughly one WAR (and yes this is getting messy), Faireborn would have to average a ZR of 25 (fangraphs) to 29.5(baseball reference) over the next 15 seasons to get to Ozzie. The Wizard was crazy go nuts insane in the field. I think there are some players today that are probably similar, or close, but it's hard to tell. The athletes are better, fielding is better in general, but so much of their effectiveness comes for vastly superior positioning and scouting of hitter's batted ball tendencies that it's tough to tell. But relative to his era? No one beats the Wizard of Oz.

Also, at current rates, again relative to similar players of their era, Ozzie was a better hitter than Faireborn. wRC+ 90 for Ozzie, 82 for Faireborn.

Anyway, still a fun article Ron. I appreciate the stats and idea. I just have a bit of a homer's attitude towards Ozzie Smith (largely because of the Omaz Vizquel nonsense) and feel the need to remind people just how good he was when he comes up.
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Re: Is Dashiell Faireborn the BBA’s Ozzie Smith in Process?

Post by RonCo » Mon Jan 21, 2019 2:32 pm

I picked Ozzie on purpose. He was, literally, the most exciting player I've ever watched. I was in my late teens and twenties when he was at his peak--and you're 100% right that the gap between Ozzie Smith and mere mortal shortstops was impossible to describe.

Offensively, he wasn't much for a reasonable part of his career, but even then he was the best shortstop in baseball. When he grew into his bat, well, just a great, great baseball player.
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Re: Is Dashiell Faireborn the BBA’s Ozzie Smith in Process?

Post by RonCo » Mon Jan 21, 2019 2:35 pm

I was watching the Braves on TV this day...which is when you suddenly knew something special was happening.

https://www.mlb.com/cut4/ozzie-smith-ma ... -226818056
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Re: Is Dashiell Faireborn the BBA’s Ozzie Smith in Process?

Post by 7teen » Mon Jan 21, 2019 3:26 pm

I drafted Faireborne. :banghead:

But also drafted Thealer. :champs:

One's a better fielder. One a better hitter.
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Re: Is Dashiell Faireborn the BBA’s Ozzie Smith in Process?

Post by felipe » Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:23 pm

Nothing quite like watching Roy Smalley pick em though

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Re: Is Dashiell Faireborn the BBA’s Ozzie Smith in Process?

Post by Bumstead » Wed Jan 23, 2019 8:34 am

Garry Templeton once had this to say in regards to Ozzie Smith's defense: "I make all the plays Ozzie does, I just do it standing up." Ozzie was certainly flamboyant and fun to watch for sure.

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Re: Is Dashiell Faireborn the BBA’s Ozzie Smith in Process?

Post by RonCo » Wed Jan 23, 2019 8:56 am

Templeton was a fine player. His sense of reality is warped, though. :)
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Re: Is Dashiell Faireborn the BBA’s Ozzie Smith in Process?

Post by Bumstead » Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:06 am

RonCo wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 8:56 am
Templeton was a fine player. His sense of reality is warped, though. :)
Eh...maybe, but MLB handed Ozzie 13 straight Gold Gloves. How many in a row did Jim Kaat and Greg Maddux win? Wasn't the most scientific of voting at that time....still isn't really. At least Jeter hit well enough to win a few GG's....

As an aside, after the MLB finally decided there were other tremendously good SS's defensively, Barry Larkin won a couple of GG's.

That said, I think Ozzie was a great fielding SS. Let's just not forget that he also was a showman. Sports are for entertainment and he certainly provided that. Larkin and Templeton just weren't flamboyant in their fielding prowess.

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Re: Is Dashiell Faireborn the BBA’s Ozzie Smith in Process?

Post by RonCo » Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:14 am

Now you're just trying to piss Ted off.
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Re: Is Dashiell Faireborn the BBA’s Ozzie Smith in Process?

Post by Bumstead » Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:29 am

RonCo wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:14 am
Now you're just trying to piss Ted off.
Not really, but I do hate the Cardinals (not because of Ozzie). Ted getting all worked up over it and puffing up about me not understanding how great Ozzie was is just a fun by-product of the discussion. I watched all 3 players play 100's of games each, so I'm not just throwing it out there in a willy nilly effort to poo poo poor Ozzie Smith. In my eyes, Larkin got short-changed in the GG department toward the end of Ozzie's run. Should Templeton have a won 1 or 2 GG's? Probably, but it wasn't as egregious as Larkin later on IMHO. Of course, Jay Bell winning the GG at SS in '93 was pretty comical...along with the multiple GG's that Jeter won...

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Re: Is Dashiell Faireborn the BBA’s Ozzie Smith in Process?

Post by felipe » Wed Jan 23, 2019 10:35 am

I'll agree with you there

Its beyond a joke that Jeter ever won any award for his fielding

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Re: Is Dashiell Faireborn the BBA’s Ozzie Smith in Process?

Post by RonCo » Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:10 am

I grew up in Indiana and Kentucky, watching the Cubs, Cardinals, and Reds every chance I could--which was a lot. Larkin was brilliant early, but I always thought he was getting by on his reputation by the time he started winning GG, whereas Ozzie was putting up the numbers to support his aura pretty much his whole career. The fact that he was a showman is, in part, because he was an athlete on par with anyone his size, an acrobatic on par with ballet dancer, and a competitor on par with a HoFer. This is not a combo you see often...or ever, really.

Templeton, to me, was never a brilliant defender, just good. The numbers seem to bear this out.
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Re: Is Dashiell Faireborn the BBA’s Ozzie Smith in Process?

Post by RonCo » Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:12 am

And, yes, Jay Bell was a bad choice, though there are numbers to say his award was nowhere near as horrible as Jeter's. The use of GG as a barometer for value is limited.
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Re: Is Dashiell Faireborn the BBA’s Ozzie Smith in Process?

Post by RonCo » Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:26 am

All this said, Dashiell Fairborne is kicking ass this year.
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Re: Is Dashiell Faireborn the BBA’s Ozzie Smith in Process?

Post by Ted » Wed Jan 23, 2019 1:40 pm

Bumstead wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:29 am
RonCo wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:14 am
Now you're just trying to piss Ted off.
Not really, but I do hate the Cardinals (not because of Ozzie). Ted getting all worked up over it and puffing up about me not understanding how great Ozzie was is just a fun by-product of the discussion. I watched all 3 players play 100's of games each, so I'm not just throwing it out there in a willy nilly effort to poo poo poor Ozzie Smith. In my eyes, Larkin got short-changed in the GG department toward the end of Ozzie's run. Should Templeton have a won 1 or 2 GG's? Probably, but it wasn't as egregious as Larkin later on IMHO. Of course, Jay Bell winning the GG at SS in '93 was pretty comical...along with the multiple GG's that Jeter won...
I'm actually with you on gold gloves. Ozzie definitely has some that should have been Barry Larkin's. I saw these guys play tons of games, too. Gary Templeton was not as good by the eye test. The ridiculous idea that he could make all the plays another player made without diving, and that the play Ron posted above is "showmanship" is just that, ridiculous. Did Ozzie have flair? Sure. Did he get to balls other shortstops of his era just couldn't. Yes. And the numbers bear that argument out. Yes defensive metrics are not great, but the gap between Ozzie and everyone else is so ridiculous that it still makes the point. It's like Andruw Jones in the outfield (first half of his career anyway), who again, by the eye test was the most amazing centerfielder (relative to his peers) that I have ever seen. You can quibble about just how accurate the numbers are, but again they point to a clear difference between him and the rest.

Are there players now who are just as good as these guys? Probably. It's just tough to tell when everyone is so much better. The players are always improving. Adam Ottavino would absolutely strike out Babe Ruth every time he faced him. The great Celtics teams of yesteryear would get demolished by 7 footers who can shoot threes and 6'7" guards who are faster and can jump higher than their little tiny point guards. This is just how it works.

Again, my irritation about people downplaying Ozzie's greatness has little to do with Cardinal's fandom, and more to do with how obnoxious it is when people ignore numbers in making comparisons. Again, largely I'm motivated by the ridiculous Omar Vizquel comparisons, who was a worse hitter and fielder. FWIW, I'd take Larkin over Vizquel and many years Larkin was just a better overall player than Ozzie due to his tremendous bat. You're smoking something pretty amazing if you think Templeton is even in the conversation. He trails Smith in DWAR, RangeFactor per 9, Range factor per game, Fielding runs above average per year, fielding percentage, and pretty much any defensive category, rate based or counting you can name. For his career, Templton is actually below league average in one or two categories, although above average in most. Oh and he was also a slightly worse hitter than Ozzie.
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Re: Is Dashiell Faireborn the BBA’s Ozzie Smith in Process?

Post by Ted » Wed Jan 23, 2019 1:49 pm

You know, as I think about this, my original post was intended to be less about Ozzie (although he is near and dear to my heart) and more about how we start comparing people to the all time greats too easily. All a player has to do now is be good a for a little bit and we hear "Is he as good as so and so ..." because of course so and so's name gets attention (you got me Ron). But I think what it does is devalue the achievements of the all time great. In our minds, their performance fades over time, because we've seen so much since then. Similarly, as mentioned in my last post, athletes are always improving, so in a relative to now sense, they don't seem so great. But what we forget is just how much better they were than their peers. For the anti stat nerds crowd out there, I submit this is another reason to love sabermetrics. Sabermetrics gives us park adjusted and run scoring environment adjusted stats. So lets say we go to a huge offense happy era and someone hits .400/.500/.680 a few times while the rest of the league is averaging .300/.360/480 and people start to say "is so and so as good as Cricket"? We can just look at the numbers and say, "No."
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Re: Is Dashiell Faireborn the BBA’s Ozzie Smith in Process?

Post by RonCo » Wed Jan 23, 2019 2:11 pm

If you haven't read it, Ted, you'll probably like this view on Vizquel. Yes, he was good, but sheesh... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-th ... r-vizquel/

I chose Ozzie as the comp for Faireborn specifically because he's _so far_ above the rest of the crowd. I completely agree that he's got a very long way to go before such a comparison makes a difference. But if nothing else, I've shined a spotlight on exactly how huge of a number that ZR is. HE's getting to balls that no other shortstop in the BBA is getting to.
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Re: Is Dashiell Faireborn the BBA’s Ozzie Smith in Process?

Post by Bumstead » Wed Jan 23, 2019 2:13 pm

Defensive metrics...eh...whatever...imperfect is the best thing I can say about them. Useful? To an extent. Ozzie and Templeton were pretty bad hitters. Luckily for Ozzie, at least he learned how to get on base. Overall though, Ozzie/Templeton, were virtually the same hitter (only Templeton can say he got 100 hits from both sides of the plate in the same season however).

Anyway, Larkin was easily a better player and later in Ozzie's 13 year GG run, Larkin was also a better fielder. That said, Ozzie was clearly the best fielding SS of his era over the long haul. I just get a kick out of the whole popularity contest for GG's...it's still there. Billy Hamilton hasn't won a GG yet because he can't hit, but he can go get the ball better than the rest of them and he has a rocket for an arm. I'll be one of the few Red's "fans" that will miss him not being there this year (although the Reds have no CF currently, so I could be wrong about that). Too bad he can't stay out of the bars at night...

I get a kick out of Templeton's quote, because it's hilarious and I don't doubt for a minute that Ozzie dove for balls he didn't need to dive for just to put on a show. But he could pull it off and the fans loved it. But, in the end, I watched him get to balls very few SS could get to at the time. Definitely fun to watch.

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Re: Is Dashiell Faireborn the BBA’s Ozzie Smith in Process?

Post by Ted » Wed Jan 23, 2019 2:23 pm

RonCo wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 2:11 pm
If you haven't read it, Ted, you'll probably like this view on Vizquel. Yes, he was good, but sheesh... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-th ... r-vizquel/

I chose Ozzie as the comp for Faireborn specifically because he's _so far_ above the rest of the crowd. I completely agree that he's got a very long way to go before such a comparison makes a difference. But if nothing else, I've shined a spotlight on exactly how huge of a number that ZR is. HE's getting to balls that no other shortstop in the BBA is getting to.
I had read that before. Thanks though. And yeah, I get your reason for the comparison. Faireborn really is lapping the field this year.
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